Dave Bush should be enjoying a breakout season. It isn't happening.

Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The start of Santana’s was somewhat interesting in that he just couldn’t win on the road. He was posting some of the most ridiculous home & road splits ever seen outside of some of the hitters in Coors Field during the 1990s. Then in June, he decided to stop pitching well anywhere, which led to a trip to Triple-A on July 17th. He returned exactly one month later and pitched a gem, on the road! Of course that success was fleeting as he has since been pounded twice (once at home, once on the road) to close out August. His home & splits through his last start are as follows:

Any trade talks with the Angels started (and usually ended) with Santana. The Angels were determined to hang onto their prized young ace-in-the-making, but after this collapse, he is looking like the next Ramon Ortiz for the Angels. That said, he is just 25 meaning it is way too early to write him off despite the putrid performance this season.

Dave Bush, Milwaukee Brewers

At least Dave Bush did his best to prove the adage that moving from the American League to the National League does help pitchers. His 2006 campaign was a breakout year for Bush. Though he shaved just .08 off of the earned run average, he dropped .11 off of the WHIP and set career bests in innings pitched, wins, strikeouts, complete games, walks per nine and batting average against. Continued progression was expected in 2007, but things just haven’t gone as planned since the opening bell for Bush. His defense hasn’t helped the cause much either with his fielding independent earned run average nearly a half run lower than his actual 4.96. Looking for more reasons why the Brewers can be found as low as third in the Central on some days? Add Bush to the list.

Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds

Like Bush, Arroyo came (back in his case) to the National League and saw significant improvements in his numbers. In fact, 2006 was a career-year for Arroyo as well with 3.29 earned run average and 1.19 WHIP helping post his second straight 14-win season. Playing in the bandbox that is the Great American Ballpark can present some sizeable issues, namely gopheritis. Arroyo allowed 31 home runs in 2006, his highest total by far surpassing the 2005 of 22. This season should end up better than last in that respect should he keep pace, but it’s the singles, double and triples getting the best of him with a .283 batting average against that has led to his 4.44 earned run average and 1.42 WHIP.

Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians

So far removed from his 2005 breakout season is Lee that this year’s brutal campaign has included a trip to the minors. Though he was hardly a superstar last year following up that 18-win season in 2005, he was still solid enough to merit plenty of consideration in fantasy baseball leagues. A 4.40 earned run average is hardly anything to write home about, but a 6.38 is downright vomit-inducing. The hits continue to catch up to him as he followed the 2005 batting average against of .251 with seasons of .278 and .283. Right now, there is something seriously wrong as he is the worst kind of three-year trend: decline! He turned 29 on the 30th of August, so he is far from washed up, but after burning as many owners as he did this season, he will likely be a dollar-days flier if not waiver-wire material in some formats starting next season.

Kevin Millwood, Texas Rangers

Like Zito and Willis, those that did their homework are not surprised by Millwood’s ineptitude. After his career-saving year of 2005, he left Cleveland for Texas and everyone with a pulse knew he wouldn’t come close to sniffing a 2.86 earned run average ever again. As such, he posted a 4.52 last year and is pacing for 5.11 this year. He will be 33 in the off-season, which is hardly old, but until he leaves Texas he is not a viable fantasy option in anything but the absolute deepest AL-Only leagues.

• Scott Olsen, Florida Marlins – What a loser. You’re almost happy to see a clown like this fail after hearing of his off-the-field troubles.


• Nate Robertson, Detroit Tigers – Last year, lefties sat against Robertson as they were just no match for him batting just .181. This year, they are destroying him to the tune of .313.


• Vicente Padilla, Texas Rangers – You have no one to blame but yourself when you take Texas Rangers pitchers.


• Daniel Cabrera, Baltimore Orioles – His inconsistency despite amazing talent only boosts the argument of Leo Mazzone’s detractors.


• Anthony Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals – The Cards might not have had to make such a miraculous climb from the depths of the Central had Reyes pitched as expected.

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