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Fantasy Sleepers -- Mixed-League Hitters
Fantasy Sleepers -- Mixed-League Hitters
By Ray Flowers | Published  03/6/2007 | Sleepers - (2007)
Ray Flowers
SG Senior Writer Ray Flowers'  work on baseball has been featured the past two years at SportsIllustrated with his weekly fantasy mailbag column (Ray also writes a weekly column for SI on hockey). The originator of SWIP and ABA (Average Bases Allowed), Ray often proposes counterintuitive ideas that are formed from in-depth statistical analysis that have helped lead to, amongst other things, a championship in the CBS Sportsline Experts Mixed League and a second place finish in the FSTA AL Only Experts League in 2006.
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View all articles by Ray Flowers
Mixed League Sleepers -- Hitters

Ah those sleepers. Each year, all us so called "experts" pull out our crystal ball and predict which players will be the breakout stars of the upcoming year. Of course, there is some luck involved here, but there is also quite a bit of homework that is required to really ferret out those players who can offer substantially more production during the season then they will cost you on draft day.

Now I could sit here and say 'Hideki Matsui' is my sleeper pick this year, but will that really be helpful to you? Of course Matsui will rebound in 2007 because he was limited in 2006 due to injury (51 games), but does that make him a sleeper? In my mind the answer is an unequivocal no. Therefore, I intend not to take the easy way out and list for you the same hitters you can read about on everyone's breakout list. What I will try to do is truly list for you those hitters who can make a difference in 2007 without already being a household name.

One last note. A few of these hitters will fail or succeed based on playing time. No "expert" can predict how the season will unfold due to injuries, infective play etc., so while a few of these guys might end up being "busts" by the end of the year if they don't receive enough playing time, these are still players I believe, given the chance, can shine in '07.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Jason Bartlett, SS, MIN (.309-2-32-44-10 in 333 ABs)

Jason Bartlett spent April and May in the minors after hitting just .241 during his rookie campaign of 2005. Bartlett didn't sulk as he used the demotion to fuel his fire and he went on to hit .306 in 58 minor league games before being recalled to the Twins. Bartlett hit the ground running for Minnesota batting .353, .325 and .351 his first three months to finish at .309 overall for the Twinkies. Why was his overall mark so slow? Jason hit only .228 in 101 ABs in September, a fact you will want to play up on draft day if you hear someone mention his name. Despite the poor average in September he managed to steal 5 bases on the month to keep his value high. Don't bet on much if any growth in the average this year, but a .280-5-50 season with 20 SBs certainly would make him a great late round grab (he stole 41 bases in 2003 at AA). Plus, the guy was born about 20 miles from where I was born, so I'm rooting for him.

Esteban German, IF, KC (.326-3-34-44-7 in 279 ABs)

With the recent news that Mark Grudzielanek will be out 4-6 weeks after knee surgery, perhaps the Royals will finally finds a place in the every day lineup for German. Now you wouldn't think a team as putrid as the Royals in 2006, they were 62-100, would have a hard time finding a speedster who hit .326 with a .422 OBP playing time, but they did in '06. In 382 career ABs at the ML level German has hit .306-3-43-60-10. Throw in the fact that he played everywhere last year (2B-26 games, OF-25, 3B- 24, SS-1, 1B-1), and you've got one valuable spare part to grab late. Don't forget that speed either; German had some big SB totals during his minor league career (58, 41, 40, 83, 48, 27, 32, 43).

Jonny Gomes, OF, TB (.216-20-59-53-1 in 385 ABs)

This is the one AL player who is likely on many lists this season, but depending on the depth of knowledge of your leaguemates, he might be a huge sleeper after hitting just .216 last year. The reason he hit so poorly was an injured shoulder, since operated on, that limited him to a pathetic .150 average over his final 127 ABs. The good news is that his overall HR rate was barely below his rookie season despite the injury (he had 21 HR in 348 ABs in 2005), and while he strikes out far too often (116 times in 2006 and 113 times in 2005) he actually greatly improved his ability to take a walk with 61 free passes after totaling only 31 in his rookie year. With health and some continued maturity at the plate, Gomes could easily hit .270 with 30 HRs this season making him a huge late round pick.

Adam Lind, OF/DH, TOR (.367-2-8 in 60 ABs)

Adam Lind is a left-handed power hitter searching for an opening in the Jays lineup. After hitting .313 with 84 RBIs in 2005, Lind upped his game in 2006 and hit .330-24-89 in just 348 ABs between AA and AAA earning a cup of coffee with the Jays (.367-2-8 in 60 ABs). Despite the stick, Lind is without a position at the start of the season, though he has a good chance to make the opening day roster as a backup OF. The problem for Lind is that his glove doubles as a backstop in that its not exactly filled by the softest hands in the game. No matter, he can hit, and teams have a way of finding youngsters with power who own a .322 career minor league average a place to play regardless of their limitations in the field.

Wily Mo Pena, OF (.301-11-42-36-0 in 276 ABs)

Quick a show of hands. How many of you think J.D. Drew will play 150 games this season? If that crickets I hear? Truth be told, Drew has never dressed for 150 contests and has played 140 games only twice in eight years (though he has reached that mark in two of the last three). Add to that the fact that Manny Ramirez enters 2007 at 34 years of age after missing 32 games last year, and you have to think that Willy Mo should be able to find his way into the lineup more than the 92 games he has averaged in each of the last two seasons. While his average will likely regress because of his poor contact rate of one K per 3.07 ABs, his power is legit. Over the course of his career, here is what his numbers would equal in a 162 games season: .261-26-74-60-4 in 464 ABs. With playing time, those numbers are reachable this year even without 162 games worth of action.

Shannon Stewart, OF, OAK (.293-2-21-21-3 in 174 ABs)

Stewart is always a risky play because the guy's body is kind of like peanut brittle (get the reference?). In two of the past three seasons Stewart has been limited to less than 95 games played, but despite always suffering from some injury he has still suited up for at least 130 games in seven of the last nine years, meaning that his injury label is warranted but slightly exaggerated. No longer capable of delivering any steals, he has just 20 his last four seasons, Stewart still hits for average (.299 career) with only one season below .290 in the past eight years. Don't expect big numbers here, but with his "normal" health, Stewart could still put up a .295-10-50-80-8 season on the cheap.





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