Now I could sit
here and say 'Hideki Matsui' is my sleeper pick this year, but will that
really be helpful to you? Of course Matsui will rebound in 2007 because he was
limited in 2006 due to injury (51 games), but does that make him a sleeper? In
my mind the answer is an unequivocal no. Therefore, I intend not to take the
easy way out and list for you the same hitters you can read about on everyone's
breakout list. What I will try to do is truly list for you those hitters who
can make a difference in 2007 without already being a household name.
One last note. A
few of these hitters will fail or succeed based on playing time. No "expert"
can predict how the season will unfold due to injuries, infective play etc., so
while a few of these guys might end up being "busts" by the end of the year if
they don't receive enough playing time, these are still players I believe,
given the chance, can shine in '07.
AMERICAN
LEAGUE
Jason Bartlett, SS, MIN (.309-2-32-44-10 in 333 ABs)
Jason Bartlett spent April and May in the minors after
hitting just .241 during his rookie campaign of 2005. Bartlett didn't sulk as
he used the demotion to fuel his fire and he went on to hit .306 in 58 minor
league games before being recalled to the Twins. Bartlett hit the ground
running for Minnesota batting .353, .325 and .351 his first three months to
finish at .309 overall for the Twinkies. Why was his overall mark so slow?
Jason hit only .228 in 101 ABs in September, a fact you will want to play up on
draft day if you hear someone mention his name. Despite the poor average in
September he managed to steal 5 bases on the month to keep his value high.
Don't bet on much if any growth in the average this year, but a .280-5-50
season with 20 SBs certainly would make him a great late round grab (he stole
41 bases in 2003 at AA). Plus, the guy was born about 20 miles from where I was
born, so I'm rooting for him.
Esteban
German, IF, KC (.326-3-34-44-7 in 279 ABs)
With the recent
news that Mark Grudzielanek will be out 4-6 weeks after knee surgery,
perhaps the Royals will finally finds a place in the every day lineup for
German. Now you wouldn't think a team as putrid as the Royals in 2006, they
were 62-100, would have a hard time finding a speedster who hit .326 with a
.422 OBP playing time, but they did in '06. In 382 career ABs at the ML level German
has hit .306-3-43-60-10. Throw in the fact that he played everywhere last year
(2B-26 games, OF-25, 3B- 24, SS-1, 1B-1), and you've got one valuable spare
part to grab late. Don't forget that speed either; German had some big SB
totals during his minor league career (58, 41, 40, 83, 48, 27, 32, 43).
Jonny Gomes,
OF, TB (.216-20-59-53-1 in 385 ABs)
This is the one
AL player who is likely on many lists this season, but depending on the depth
of knowledge of your leaguemates, he might be a huge sleeper after hitting just
.216 last year. The reason he hit so poorly was an injured shoulder, since
operated on, that limited him to a pathetic .150 average over his final 127
ABs. The good news is that his overall HR rate was barely below his rookie
season despite the injury (he had 21 HR in 348 ABs in 2005), and while he
strikes out far too often (116 times in 2006 and 113 times in 2005) he actually
greatly improved his ability to take a walk with 61 free passes after totaling
only 31 in his rookie year. With health and some continued maturity at the
plate, Gomes could easily hit .270 with 30 HRs this season making him a huge
late round pick.
Adam Lind,
OF/DH, TOR (.367-2-8 in 60 ABs)
Adam Lind is a
left-handed power hitter searching for an opening in the Jays lineup. After
hitting .313 with 84 RBIs in 2005, Lind upped his game in 2006 and hit
.330-24-89 in just 348 ABs between AA and AAA earning a cup of coffee with the
Jays (.367-2-8 in 60 ABs). Despite the stick, Lind is without a position at the
start of the season, though he has a good chance to make the opening day roster
as a backup OF. The problem for Lind is that his glove doubles as a backstop in
that its not exactly filled by the softest hands in the game. No matter, he can
hit, and teams have a way of finding youngsters with power who own a .322
career minor league average a place to play regardless of their limitations in
the field.
Wily Mo Pena,
OF (.301-11-42-36-0 in 276 ABs)
Quick a show of hands. How many
of you think J.D. Drew will play 150 games this season? If that crickets
I hear? Truth be told, Drew has never dressed for 150 contests and has played
140 games only twice in eight years (though he has reached that mark in two of
the last three). Add to that the fact that Manny Ramirez enters 2007 at
34 years of age after missing 32 games last year, and you have to think that
Willy Mo should be able to find his way into the lineup more than the 92 games
he has averaged in each of the last two seasons. While his average will likely
regress because of his poor contact rate of one K per 3.07 ABs, his power is
legit. Over the course of his career, here is what his numbers would equal in a
162 games season: .261-26-74-60-4 in 464 ABs. With playing time, those numbers
are reachable this year even without 162 games worth of action.
Shannon
Stewart, OF, OAK (.293-2-21-21-3 in 174 ABs)
Stewart is
always a risky play because the guy's body is kind of like peanut brittle (get
the reference?). In two of the past three seasons Stewart has been limited to
less than 95 games played, but despite always suffering from some injury he has
still suited up for at least 130 games in seven of the last nine years, meaning
that his injury label is warranted but slightly exaggerated. No longer capable
of delivering any steals, he has just 20 his last four seasons, Stewart still
hits for average (.299 career) with only one season below .290 in the past
eight years. Don't expect big numbers here, but with his "normal" health,
Stewart could still put up a .295-10-50-80-8 season on the cheap.