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Fantasy Sleepers -- Mixed-League Hitters
Fantasy Sleepers -- Mixed-League Hitters
By Ray Flowers | Published  03/6/2007 | Sleepers - (2007)
Ray Flowers
SG Senior Writer Ray Flowers'  work on baseball has been featured the past two years at SportsIllustrated with his weekly fantasy mailbag column (Ray also writes a weekly column for SI on hockey). The originator of SWIP and ABA (Average Bases Allowed), Ray often proposes counterintuitive ideas that are formed from in-depth statistical analysis that have helped lead to, amongst other things, a championship in the CBS Sportsline Experts Mixed League and a second place finish in the FSTA AL Only Experts League in 2006.
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View all articles by Ray Flowers
NL Mixed League Sleepers -- Hitters

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Jeff Baker, 3B/OF, COL (.368-5-21-13-2 in 57 ABs)

Much like Lind on the AL list, Baker is a player who enters 2007 with a huge stick but without a home on the diamond. Baker has tried 1B but he is blocked by Todd Helton. He has tried 3B, but perhaps you have heard of the Rockies 3B Garrett Atkins? This means that for Baker to make the squad he will likely have to serve as a backup at those positions as well as serving as a 4th OF. In fact, Clint Hurdle said that Baker will fill a super-utility role this year and that he could eat into Brad Hawpe's playing time in the OF (Hawpe owns a poor .227 career average vs. lefties in 110 ABs). Baker has hit .305-6-25 in just 30 games in the majors after a distinguished minor league career that has produced a .306 average with a .891 OPS. Baker also hit .305-20-107 in 128 AAA games in 2006, so he has nothing left to prove in the minors (he is out of options as well).

Chris Burke, OF, 2B, HOU (.276-9-40-58-11 in 366 ABs)

Like Gomes in the AL, here is my one "cheating" sleeper pick for 2007. Burke is scheduled to play CF this year, though there has been talk of him moving back to 2B if Craig Biggio struggles (though the team brought in Mark Loretta to help fill that role as well if needed). Burke qualifies at both spots in 2007 after 69 games at 2B and64 games in the OF last year (he also suited up for 8 games at SS). Regardless of where he plays, Burke can hit and he has intriguing speed which marks him as a potential 90 run, 20 SB guy this season if he hits at the top of the lineup on a regular basis.

J.J Hardy , SS, MIL (.242-5-14-13-1 in 128 ABs)

Bill Hall filled in at SS for the majority of the year last season as Hardy injured his ankle and played only 35 games. With Hall moving to CF this year, SS is Hardy's job to lose. Certainly well below the top targets at SS, Hardy still offers a bit of upside as a dollar pick especially in leagues that use corner and middle infielders. In 500 career ABs Hardy has hit .246-14-64-59-1. Now wouldn't that be a nice season for a final round grab? The upside isn't much better than those numbers, but they would certainly suffice in deep mixed leagues as a MI.

Kazuo Matsui, 2B, COL (.267-3-26-32-10 in 243 ABs)

OK, you have been burned once before by this Japanese import right? And while he certainly isn't going to be the player the Mets and others once predicted him to be, there is still time for him to be a productive fantasy player. Matsui was terrible with the Mets in 2006 hitting .200 in 38 games before he was traded to the Rockies where he might finally remembered how to hit. After hitting .278 over 31 games at AAA Colorado Springs, Matsui was called up to the big club and proceeded to hit .345-2-19-22-8 in just 32 games. No longer eligible at SS, Matsui merely has to beat out Jamey Carroll for the second base job, and, in fact, Clint Hurdle has already stated that Matsui should receive more work than the light hitting Carroll (forget about that .300 average from last season, it ain't gonna happen again for ole' Jamey boy). Matsui won't set the world on fire but he is capable of a .285-10-50-75-20 season with enough playing time if everything breaks right.

Yadier Molina, C, STL (.216-6-49-26-1 in 417 ABs)

Molina was a massive disappointment in 2006 for the Cardinals a year after hitting .252-8-49. Molina was terrible at home hitting .197 with an atrocious .515 OPS and he barely hit better than that over his final 59 games (.207 with a.602 OPS). So why is he on this sleepers list? The first and most obvious reason is that who in their right mind would draft a player coming off a season at the plate that was worse than SP Dontrelle Willis? That fact makes Molina a potential bargain on draft day. Second, despite the hideous average, his HRs and RBI totals were almost identical to his 2005 marks (8 HR, 49 RBIs). Third, his walk rate was the same as 2005 while his strikeout rate barely rose from one K per 12.8 ABs to one every 10.2 ABs. Fourth, he entered 2006 with a .256 career average in 520 ABs. So with all that information at your disposal, how does a .250-10-50 season sound for a $1?

Corey Hart, OF, MIL (.283-9-33-32-5 in 237 ABs)

Corey Hart is a hitter and the Brewers finally seem to think the time is right to let him prove it to the world. The one downside here is playing time since the team will enter 2007 with about 32 OFs on its roster (Hall will play CF with the following guys in search of time: Hart, Geoff Jenkins, Kevin Mench, Gabe Gross, Laynce Nix and Tony Gwynn Jr.). However, the team seems committed to getting Hart as much work as they can and the team will likely trade one or more of their OFs at some point. That uncertainty will likely keep Hart's value below where it would otherwise be on draft day making him an even better buy low candidate than he would normally be. Despite being 6 foot 6, there has even been some talk of hitting Hart in the 1st or 2nd spot in the order, a move which would obviously increase his value if it were to come to pass. Hart owns a .299 career minor league average and has hit .310-21-90-104-9 over 529 ABs the past two years at AAA.



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