Don was down on Youk in the preseason - how has that played out for him?

Following up on last week’s article, this week I’ll look at some of my “down side” guys going into 2007 based on an assessment made in mid-February. Once again, what I wrote back then will be in italics.

Chone Figgins – There are lot of reasons Figgins will not reach 600 at-bats in 2007 (new players, his defense at 3B, problems against left-handers, etc.) Thus, while you should still get a good number of steals, don’t plan on 50…or, perhaps even 40. Also, expect a decrease in runs scores as well.

Figgins has only 379 at-bats as of this writing and 34 steals. He could reach 40 steals, but he won’t reach his runs scored total from last year. His season was saved by an improbable 40% hit rate on balls in play which has stoked his average. However, any way you look at it, you didn’t get the production you likely paid for Figgins.

Kevin Youkilis – I suspect many projections will have Youkilis improving greatly in power and RBI next season, and adding in more at bats to his total. I am going to go the other way. Youkilis seems like a guy who will battle injuries throughout his career. He gets hit by a pitch a lot and struggled towards the end of last season with a variety of ailments. Keep that in mind when bidding.

Youk is hitting 0.232 since the All-Star break and has been HBP 13 times this season. He’s had a solid year, overall, but I think my analysis was on target. It is just that he played so well early on that he built up a big buffer. Also, he really hasn’t missed any extended time with injury (though he did miss time here and there with a variety of ailments). I stand by my injury statement for future seasons.

Gary Matthews – He will probably show up on a lot of these lists, and rightly so. Prior to 2006, Matthews had played over 1400 games in the Majors and Minors combined. Including last season’s 0.313 campaign, Matthews has a career 0.263 batting average in the Majors and a 0.266 batting average in the Minors. If you are expecting that again, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. His mid-teens power is legit and he’ll play a lot (if healthy), but I’ll bet he spends more time towards the bottom of the batting order than the top.

Well, Matthews is hitting .261 and has 18 home runs so far…and has been healthy the whole season. For a variety of reasons, Matthews has spent the bulk of the season occupying the 1, 3, or 4 hole in the lineup, which means solid RBI and runs scored numbers.

Chien-Ming Wang – Those lack of strikeouts associated with his success are so very unusual. I do not want to be left holding the bag if what everything thinks should happen, actually does. He will still get wins in that scenario, but the WHIP/ERA will be much different than last year.

Wang had a big up-tick in his K/9 IP rate, improving from 3.1 last year to 4.6 this year. He has 16 wins this year and his ERA is similar to last season. This one was a miss on my part, but I’d take a stand against him every day of the week.

Reed Johnson – If you spend money thinking he will be an everyday player, you’ll end up being disappointed. Adam Lind and even Matt Stairs will take some of his at-bats if Johnson struggles at all. His ceiling is low to begin with.

Johnson was hurt the bulk of the season and has been pretty ineffective on his return. Matt Stairs has had a very fine year in his place. Reed Johnson is a prime example of a bad investment since he didn’t have a big upside.

Cliff Lee – His strikeout rate has dropped three years in a row. With his inflated HR-rate and historic troubles with control, a return to a near 5 ERA and a WHIP of 1.5 is a real possibility.

If only he was able to keep his WHIP at 1.5 and his ERA at 5, Lee would never have been farmed. And while his K rate improved slightly, his homer rate and walk rate also increased. Note that I (foolishly) owned Cliff Lee in a league (I acquired him in a trade), which has negatively impacted my season. I should have listened to my own advice.

Aubrey Huff – Someone in your league will pay money for the .300 / 30 / 100 Huff of 2003. Make sure it is not you since you are likely to end up with the .275 / 20 / 80 version.

Huff is not a good bet to reach even 20 home runs or 80 RBI, so let’s hope you never owned him in any league you were in this season.

Curtis Granderson – His OBP in the second half last year was 0.284. If he gets moved from leadoff at some point, it is likely to bat ninth…which means lost at-bats and less runs scored. Be cautious here.

Give Granderson credit here. He has had a great season and has spent almost all of it hitting leadoff. He seems to be a good bet to become a platoon player in the long run (his 0.504 OPS in 108 at-bats against lefties this season beyond terrible), so keep that in mind.

Marcus Thames – He had his big breakout year in 2006, but it was aided by Dmitri Young getting hurt/not producing. He’ll have to hope for an injury to an outfielder to get adequate playing time…and that is never something good to hold out for, especially when you are on the wrong side of a platoon.

Well, Thames never really had much of an opportunity to get at bats this season. He did see time at first base, but he won’t match his at bat total or his HR total from 2006. His homers come at a price, though, especially in an OBP league (his OBP is 0.284 on the year).

Gary Sheffield – He’s 38 now, coming off a wrist injury, will play a new position or DH, and will not have the Yankee lineup around him. Enough said.

Sheffield has had a great year derailed by injury recently. I thought he was done and I was wrong. I wonder if there has ever been a longer gap between 20 stolen base seasons than Sheffield’s between 1990 and 2007. That was certainly unexpected.

Frank Thomas – Do you think anyone in your league will invest in Thomas paying full price for a 30 HR/100 RBI season? It shouldn’t be you. He’s 38 and a big injury risk. Now he gets to play half of his games on an artificial surface. This could get ugly very quick.

Thomas is likely not to reach either 30 home runs or 100 RBI, but he could be close. He is what he is, though, and the end is just around the corner.

By the way, here are some updates on my three expert leagues. I am in first in two of them and have made the second round of the playoffs in the H2H league. It is possible that I could win all three expert leagues this year. I am still in first in my home league, but my lead is dropping quickly (I have both Joe Mauer and Eric Bedard taking zeros since they aren’t DL’ed).

Questions and comments may be sent to donvisco@sportsgrumblings.com