John Smoltz is one of many pitchers saying that 40 is the new 30.
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It’s amazing how many aging pitchers are still around these days. Pitching effectively into your 40s is not the rarity it once was. That is a big difference between today’s game compared to only a decade ago. For pitchers, 40 is the new 30.
A decade ago, the Atlanta Braves defined pitching. The legendary Braves rotation of the 1990s featured Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine. It was unprecedented to have three Cy Young winners in the same rotation while in the prime of their careers. Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine in a sense, also define pitching in this decade. Now, however, the definition has changed. These men symbolize the trend of teams looking to elder statesmen to anchor their pitching staffs. Most contending clubs have a senior or two and expect major contributions from them.
A select few of the seniors are fantasy studs. Many others are available as late-season free agent pickups. Let’s take a look to see which ones can contribute to your fantasy team as the 2007 season draws to a close.
For Better
1. John Smoltz, SP, Braves: The 40-year-old Smoltz is having another terrific season. His strikeout to walk ratio is 4:1 – that is outstanding. He is fourth in the league in strikeouts (159), fifth in ERA (3.09) and tenth in WHIP (1.23). He has excellent support from a powerful Braves lineup so he should continue winning down the stretch.
2. Greg Maddux, SP, Padres: The 41-year-old Maddux has enjoyed pitching at PETCO Park. He is 7-4 with a 3.12 ERA in San Diego. He is 4-5 with a 4.38 ERA everywhere else. Maddux is still available in most leagues. Wait until after his next start, at Colorado to pick him up. Maddux is eighth in the NL with a 1.19 WHIP.
3. Trevor Hoffman, RP, Padres: The 39-year-old Hoffman is the mark of consistency. Closing for the contending Padres, Hoffman is on pace for another 40-save season. That would be his fourth in a row and the ninth of his illustrious career. He had a subpar August, but he has converted his last four save opportunities so it seems the worst is behind him.
4. Mariano Rivera, RP, Yankees: The 37-year-old Rivera is having his worst season in his career. Nevertheless, his numbers are still good, just not up to his standards: 23 saves, 3.17 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. Rivera has blown just one save since the All Star break, and the fall is his time of year.
5. Pedro Martinez, SP, Mets: The 36-year-old Martinez looked good in his first start since returning from shoulder surgery. He settled down after a rough first inning and pitched well against the Reds. Martinez had a long rehab and a lot of you have stashed him away on your bench for a long (too long?) time. If he is available in your league, pick him up.
Honorable Mention
Tim Wakefield, SP, Red Sox: The 41-year-old Wakefield has very respectable numbers. He is second on the Red Sox in wins with 16 – one less than Josh Beckett, two more than Daisuke Matsuzaka and eight more than Curt Schilling. He is worth a pickup if healthy; however, a bad back could force him to miss his next start.
For Worse
1. Tom Glavine, SP, Mets: The 41-year-old Glavine is owned in more leagues than Maddux, but probably shouldn’t be. True, he has pitched very well since the All Star Break with a 5-0 record and a 3.47 ERA. Glavine is an okay pickup if you need wins, but he will not help much with strikeouts or WHIP. There are probably better options on your waiver wire, including, possibly Maddux.
2. Orlando Hernandez, SP, Mets: Hernandez is “officially” 38 years old. Birth certificates are hard to come by in Cuba. El Duque has pitched consistently well when healthy. He is 9-4 with a 3.32 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and 122 strikeouts in 141 innings -- terrific numbers. His only problem is his fragile health. He was on the disabled list early in the season and now he has a foot injury, which will cause him to miss at least a couple of starts. If the Mets maintain a comfortable lead in the NL East, they will not rush Hernandez back. They would give him one or two tune-up starts just before the playoffs. This is the opposite of what they will do with Martinez. With Pedro, they will pitch him regularly to build up his arm strength.
3. Billy Wagner, RP, Mets: The 36-year-old Wagner is in the midst of an ugly streak of five games in a row where he has been scored on. For a closer, that is abysmal. He has two blown saves and a loss in that span to go with a 13.50 ERA. The last time he pitched a 1-2-3 inning was three weeks ago, on August 14. Something is very wrong with Wagner.
4. Curt Schilling, SP, Red Sox: The 40-year-old Schilling is showing his age. His strikeouts are down from last year and from his career average. He has made two trips to the DL and has only an 8-6 record. Schilling is owned in just about every league, certainly making him overrated compared to Maddux, for example. Maddux has more wins, more strikeouts, a better ERA and a better WHIP.
5. Roger Clemens, SP, Yankees: The 45-year-old Clemens is wasting a roster spot in just about every fantasy league. The Rocket has been ordinary with a 6-6 record and a 4.45 ERA for New York. He just had a cortisone shot in his pitching elbow so he will miss one start for sure. On the other hand, he could be done for the year. Time to cut him.
Dishonorable Mention
Mike Mussina, SP, Yankees: The 38-year-old Mussina goes back into the Yankees rotation for Clemens. Mussina looks like he is toast. Opposing batters are hitting .316 against him. If you are holding onto him in your league for some reason, please stop.
Tom Gordon, RP, Phillies: It seems as if the entire Phillies pitching staff has been on the disabled list at one time or another. The 39-year-old Gordon lost his closer job while he was on the DL. His fantasy value is limited to leagues that require middle relievers. You can find better setup men if you have a need there, however.
Jamie Moyer, SP, Phillies: If you are left-handed, you can pitch forever. That is the theory that the 44-year-old Moyer is putting to the test. Moyer (12-11) is an innings-eater for a contender, so he will get a few wins. However, his other stats will hurt your fantasy team: high ERA, high WHIP, and low strikeouts.
David Wells, SP, Dodgers: Another ancient lefty. Entertaining, if not effective, the 44-year-old Wells is now serving a seven game suspension.