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MLB Fantasy: Rookie Hitter Grumblings
MLB Fantasy: Rookie Hitter Grumblings
By Daniel Heyder | Published  03/7/2007 | Rookie Hitter Grumblings - (2007)
Daniel Heyder
Dan Heyder has been involved in fantasy sports since 2001 with baseball being his "bread and butter" sport.   He’s written many articles for web sites such as fantasybaseball.com and SI.com.  He’ll also be featured in the upcoming 2007 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.
 

View all articles by Daniel Heyder
Delmon Young and Alex Gordon will be cornerstones
 
      Young will produce .300 avg, 100 RBI, 30 HR, 100 R, 30 2B type seasons

Few things are more exciting for a fantasy owner than taking a chance on a young player and watching him develop into a superstar. But few things are more frustrating than pinning your hopes (and spending big bucks) on some hotshot rookie only to find him back in the minors before Memorial Day.

Judging prospects is an inexact science and even experts get it wrong. You never know if a player will develop personal problems, forget how to recognize pitches or just lose total confidence in himself. The best you can do is make an educated guess and hope it pays off. Remember though, not all first-year players that will have fantasy value in 2007 will start the season in the majors. Every year there are players who start the year in the minors and produce when they are called up later in the season.

One player in particular was New York Yankee’s Melky Cabrera.He became a nice value pick when both Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield went down early in the season due to injuries.Keep that sort of thing in mind for the later rounds of your draft, especially you keeper leaguers out there. What I’m going to do in this blog is highlight the rookie hitters who may provide value to the back end of your roster. Some of them such as Delmon Young and Alex Gordon will end up being cornerstones or building blocks if you will, for teams in keeper leagues. (Note: The players are listed in drafting value order).

With all the problems surrounding this phenom, Young is still the viewed as the most talented player to come up through the deep Devil Rays’ system and is the clear-cut favorite to win the AL ROY award in 2007. He’s been compared to Ken Griffey Jr by many people.

What gives Dmitri Young’s little brother this distinction is fairly simple. He possesses elite ability in all five tools (speed, power, catching, throwing, and hitting for average) and is a five-category fantasy stud in the making. In about two years (maybe even sooner), Young will be producing .300 avg,100 RBI,30 HR,100 R,30 2B type seasons for years to come.

Many polled had Gordon in the top spot, and for good reason. The future five-category star will be given a look at an everyday job this spring and if he wins it, he'll be worth a middle-round sleeper pick in any Fantasy league especially keeper leagues. In his brief stint he showed surprising speed to go along with expected power so comparing him to a left handed version of David Wright is pretty accurate.

The Rockie’s rookie shortstop Troy Tulowitzki was drafted in
 
 Stephen Drew is a top sleeper at 2B
the hopes he'd move up the ladder quickly. He did just that, debuting in Double-A and ending the season in the big leagues. He should be the Rockies starting shortstop on Opening Day as he arrives almost two years younger than the player he has been most compared to; the A's Bobby Crosby. Tulowitzki is good enough to beat out Clint  Barmes for the everyday job, but he's raw and won't be worthy of being drafted until baseball's other young slugging shortstops; Crosby, Stephen Drew, Khalil Greene and Jhonny Peralta are all off the board. With Mark Loretta manning second base for the Astros, the Red Sox will be looking for an everyday second basemen.

Unless Boston acquires a good second baseman via a trade or free agent signing, expect Dustin Pedroia to compete with Alex Cora for the job in 2007. Boston is ready to hand the job over to the rookie should he have a good spring. The undersized second baseman is not quite Dan Uggla, but he will provide as much pop as his predecessor in Loretta. His outstanding strikeout-to-walk ratio (27-48 in Triple-A) will fit nicely in the bottom of Boston’s order this season. At this point, he’s only worthy of a late round flier in deeper mixed leagues.

The only thing standing in the way of catcher Chris Iannetta's success is the Rockies signing of Javy Lopez. I was looking forward to seeing this kid on an everyday basis hitting at the friendly confines of Coors Field. Iannetta's numbers would be eye-popping even if he was a first baseman, particularly the .336 average, .433 OBP and .996 OPS combined in Double- and Triple-A. I still think Iannetta will be the Rockies opening catcher with Javy Lopez assuming the DH responsibilities in Inter-league games and spelling him on off-days. With that said, he could (and should for that matter) become a popular "sleeper" choice on draft day.

For the record, Chris R. Young pitches for San Diego, Chris P. Young is penciled in to be the Diamondbacks' starting center fielder in 2007 and should be in for a breakout year (30 HRs/30 SBs is extremely possible). His first run in Triple-A didn't entirely bare that out, though and he's going to get a trial-by-fire in Arizona this spring, potentially leading off and playing center. While we don't think he will strike out as often as teammate Mike Cameron, we do see him as a similar 25-25 candidate in his prime. Consider him a huge mixed-league sleeper.

As a full-time starter in right field, first base or third base, Jeff
 
   Baker is versatile and will get PT
Baker
is an NL ROY favorite. With Shawn Green now out of the picture, Carlos Quentin owns right field in Arizona now. Quentin burst on the scene in July and showed more pop than was expected. He may develop even more power as he becomes more comfortable. Of his 42 hits last year, 25 went for extra bases. He’ll hit in the middle of the D-Backs order (most likely 6th behind Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy) and is considered a sleeper for deeper leagues this year.

The Astros' trade of Willy Taveras opened the door for a healthy competition in center field this spring between Hunter Pence and Chris Burke. Burke, who will one day take over for the ageless Craig Biggio at second base, looks like the front-runner going into spring for the CF spot, but don’t dismiss the talent of Pence. He produced another hugely productive year last season at Double-A, showing both power and surprising speed (17 SBs in 136 games). This type of production will fit nicely in that hitter’s haven affectionately known as Minute Maid Park and if it's on opening day, you will want to take a late-round flier in deeper mixed leagues.

Baker's prolific September made some wonder whether he should he have been on the roster sooner. He can play both corner outfield spots, was drafted as a third baseman and will practice playing first, so there are other possible playing time avenues him. He's not quite as gifted as some of the other players noted in this article, but he's promising enough for Colorado to consider him platooning with right fielder Brad Hawpe. Should the Todd Helton trade rumors resurface before or at the trade deadline, it could enhance Baker’s value on the waiver wire.

You could argue that Billy Butler is one of the best pure hitters in the Minors. He's worked hard on his outfield defense with the hopes he's improved enough to win a job in Kansas City this spring. Butler could probably even hold his own as a DH in the big leagues as he is a patient hitter who can compliment his power production with good on-base skills. This is a “wait and see” scenario and he should be plucked from your waiver wire if and when he finds a full time job and starts producing.



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