Dan Heyder has been involved in fantasy sports since 2001 with baseball
being his "bread and butter" sport. He’s written many articles for
web sites such as fantasybaseball.com and SI.com. He’ll also be
featured in the upcoming 2007 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.
Myers has won at least 11 games each of the past four seasons
Keeper league managers usually have to make a decision between one of two options; deciding your core players are good enough to go for it all this coming season or to the contrary, planning for the future and building for the near future.
Fantasy owners who start researching things now often are more successful then the "cram for tomorrow's test" type manager. One of the more important decisions a good fantasy baseball manager will have to make is deciding whether or not to keep a borderline type player.
Sure, the Albert Pujols', Alphonso Sorianos, A-Rod's and Johan Santana's of the world are easy decisions, but what about the eighth ranked shortstop that is coming off a career year? Or what about one the rookie phenom pitchers who burst on the scene last year? Are they relative value to what you could actually draft?
I'll break down some of the Grumblings you may have to deal with regard to deciding whether a player is keeper worthy or waiver fodder for the draft.
CATCHERS
Ramon Hernandez (BAL) vs. Russell Martin (LAD)
Even though the 30-year-old Hernandez had a nice first season with the Orioles; hitting a career-high 23 homers combined with 93 RBIs, history shows he has only approached 20 HRs once before in his eight year career and has never come close to 90 RBIs before (highest was 78 back in 2003). Martin on the other hand is on the upswing of his career and did a little of everything as a rookie, including leading NL catchers in steals (10).Expect the 23-year old to improve on last year's numbers while chipping in 10-15 SBs.
Grumbling Verdict: Both Martin and Hernandez are ranked pretty close but the seven year age difference plus the added stolen bases gives the nod to the youngster Martin.
FIRST BASEMEN
Adam LaRoche (PIT) vs. Nick Swisher (OAK)
LaRoche is expected to hit fourth with his new team the Pittsburgh Pirates, sandwiched between NL batting champion Freddy Sanchez and All-Star outfielder Jason Bay. The 27-year-old is entering his prime, and is trending upwards in his overall production.Unlike LaRoche, Swisher is an all or nothing type of hitter.His .246 AVG the last three years coupled with his 56 HRs over his last two years illustrate this point vividly.If he could somehow cut down on his high strikeout total, his value would skyrocket.Until then, he's just a younger version of Richie Sexson with a higher OBP.
Grumbling Verdict: Always take the average hitter over the power hitter in these circumstances, it's a lot easier to develop power than it is to develop plate discipline.LaRoche is the choice here for sure.
SECOND BASEMEN
Josh Barfield (CLE) vs. Rickie Weeks (MIL)
Now here's a good one to chew on…err…grumble on. Both are young, both were highly touted coming into last year and both finished with similar type numbers.So who has the edge? Barfield has switched leagues coming from the NL over to the AL and Weeks is coming off a hand injury for the second straight season, which could be cause for concern considering the "Sheffield" type bat speed he generates. Weeks is a potential 20-20 candidate, making him a super injury-risk sleeper in 2007.Barfield however will have to adjust to AL pitching, but he moves into a much better surrounding lineup in Cleveland than the one he had in San Diego.
Grumbling Verdict: I would take Barfield for two reasons, the fact Weeks injured the same wrist for the second straight year makes him a very risky proposition.Secondly, Barfield's minor league numbers; which are much better than Weeks' numbers, indicate he'll be turning the 20-20 corner very soon…most likely in 2007.
THIRD BASEMEN
Scott Rolen (STL) vs. Eric Chavez (OAK)
Both of these former high ranking third basemen have fallen off a bit. One now barely makes the top 10 (Rolen) and the other barely squeaked in the top 15 (Chavez).Both also have hit the 30-year-old plateau and both dealt with injury problems last year. Both are expected to be 100% healthy this spring, which may result in a bounce back type year.The only problem is only one of them will experience this and I'll give you a hint, it won't be the younger of the two.
Grumbling Verdict: Rolen is conservatively ranked 10th in our 3B rankings.If he was able to produce a .296 AVG with 22 HRs and 95 RBIs on a year following major shoulder surgery, imagine what he can do one year later. A .310 AVG with 28 HRs and 100+ RBIs is very realistic.
SHORTSTOP
Orlando Cabrera (LAA) vs. Jhonny Peralta (CLE)
Cabrera's lack of power, his fluctuating batting average from year to year (.246, .294, .257, and .282) and his career .317 OBP are the primary reasons why he'll never be a top rated shortstop. He does however hit in front of Vlad Guerrero meaning he'll always be pitched to, plus he's a great source for steals.Other than that, he's mediocre for a SS. Peralta experienced one of the worse sophomore slumps since Larkin's first half disaster back in 1987. He hit .280 or better in only one of the six months last year as opposed to doing it in five of the six the previous year. Even with his weak batting average last year, he still put up good totals in homers, runs and RBIs. He's undoubtedly a bounce-back candidate.
Grumbling Verdict: There's way too much talent in Peralta to expect a "junior" slump from him in the 2007 season.The baseball world thought Larkin was a bust after 1987 yet he responded nicely the following year batting .296.The bottom line is that I'd rather roll the dice one more time on a guy with upside as opposed to a guy who has leveled off.
OUTFIELD
Chris Duncan (STL) vs. Alex Rios (TOR)
Whew, this is a tough one, but I'll guarantee some of you are contemplating whether or not to keep one of these guys.On paper they both look real attractive but only one of them is legit for 2007.Duncan's 22 HRs, (19 in the second half as a starter) was more than he had in any full season at the minor league level.Rios in his own right exploded on the scene last year and would have finished with even better numbers had he not experienced a month long set back due to a staph infection in his leg.
Grumbling Verdict: Duncan is an intriguing player, but I'll go with Rios for several reasons.Duncan still can not hit lefties (.170 in 47 ABs last year) which is probably why the Cards re-signed Preston Wilson.He'll most likely platoon with Wilson, which will limit the number of ABs he gets.Before the staph infection, Rios was on pace for a 30 HR, 100+ RBIs and 20 SB type season.
Raul Ibanez (SEA) vs. Hideki Matsui (NYY)
Even though Matsui was lost for four months last year due to a fractured wrist, he still displayed a sense of consistency as he did in the previous three years.Ibanez experienced a career year in 2006. His 2006 numbers were just too good to be true. He eclipsed his previous high in homers by nine and drove in 20 more runs than ever before.They may be neck and neck in the current OF rankings, but one of them will move up in the rankings and the other will go in the other direction.
Grumbling Verdict: Ibanez is unlikely to reproduce his 2006 numbers next season.There's nothing over the last few years that indicate this 12-year veteran is trending upwards and didn't hit his ceiling in 2006.Matsui is as consistent as they come on a month to month basis.With a fully healed wrist, you can expect a return to his numbers from the previous three years (.302 BA, 25 HRs, 110 RBIs)
STARTING PITCHERS
Felix Hernandez (SEA) vs. Matt Cain (SF)
King Felix entered the 2006 season with as much hype as what we're seeing this year with "gyroball" perfectionist Daisuke Matsuzaka.Hernandez, who reported to spring training, last year at 246 pounds; 16 pounds heavier than the team wanted, was hampered by poor physical conditioning that led to the development of shin splints in spring training that bothered him into the season.He just showed up in Seattle this week with a toned physique and 20 pounds lighter.Cain also got out of the gate slowly to the tune of a 5.12 first half ERA but then settled nicely in the second half (3.26). He had a nice six game stretch at the end of August where he gave up one run or less while winning five of those starts.
Grumbling Verdict: You can't go wrong with either as both will be entering their third-year as a starting pitcher. That traditionally has been a time for a breakthrough and both have showed signs of this happening last year.However, Hernandez is as talented as any pitcher in baseball.He has better stuff and from the looks of things thus far, he's taking 2007 very serious.A fast start, which is very conceivable, will catapult the King back into a top-10 starting pitcher consideration again.As they say in checkers, "King me".
Brett Myers (PHI) vs. Jeremy Bonderman (CHW)
Myers has won at least 11 games each of the past four seasons. The 26-year-old went 12-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 31 starts last season. Myers is durable (at least 31 starts in each of the past four seasons) and is a strong strikeout pitcher (3 year average of 171 K's).The 24-year-old Bonderman was 14-8 with a 4.08 ERA last season.He tied for the league lead with 34 starts and was second in strikeouts with 202.The fantasy world is still waiting for that "breakout" season and quite honestly, it may have come last year.
Grumbling Verdict: Both pitchers are eerily similar in stats and performance over the last three years.I personally think Bonderman's success was due to Detroit's "Cinderella" story run last season and he may slip back to something in between 2005 and 2006.Myers had his off field issues to deal with yet still posted a very fine season.With all that said, you have to like Myers a bit more moving forward.
CLOSERS
Fransisco Cordero (MIL) vs. Todd Jones (DET)
Cordero and Jones are respectively the 12th and 13th ranked closers (on average).One provides more strikeout ability (Cordero) and the other will have more opportunities because he plays for a better team (Jones). Following the July trade to the Brewers, Cordero and his combination of a mid to high 90's fastball combined with a killer slider produced an outstanding K/9 ratio of 10.1.Jones on the other hand was solid once again posting his second straight year with at least 37 saves.
Grumbling Verdict: My choice here is Cordero because of one name: Joel Zumaya. The hard throwing Detroit stud is chomping at the bit for an opportunity and may get it sooner rather than later should the 39-year-old Jones stumble this year.
