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Statistics 101 -- September 13, 2007
Statistics 101 -- September 13, 2007
By John Franco | Published  09/13/2007 | Statistics 101 - (2007)
John Franco
A fantasy player for more than ten years, John is best known for giving all of his great advice to his friends (and competitors) and keeping none for himself. Along with having contributed to SportsBlurb for the last three seasons, John's work has also appeared on both FOX Sports' and Sporting News' website and in the  Sporting News Fantasy Baseball Owners Manual.   

View all articles by John Franco
With A Little Help From My Friends
  Magglio Ordonez -- Fantasy Baseball
Magglio Ordonez is getting by with a little help from his friends...

The San Francisco Giants’ Bengie Molina is having an amazing season, and most baseball fans have probably missed it. Molina has hit .284 with 19 home runs and 79 RBI – a pretty good performance for a so-so catcher in a pitchers’ park. That isn’t the amazing part, though: Molina has scored just 36 runs this year. That means that he has driven himself in 19 times (19 home runs) and his teammates have driven him home just 17 times. You might argue that Molina has a terrible on-base percentage (.306) and his teammates haven’t really had a chance to drive him in.

There is some truth to that, but Molina has still managed 109 hits that were not home runs, and he has also drawn 13 walks. So, given 122 chances to drive him in, his teammates have succeeded just 14% of the time. That 14% success rate is also the worst among all 168 batters qualified for the batting title. In short – Molina certainly isn’t helping himself (no walks, bad ballpark, no speed), but his teammates are doing an exceptionally bad job of helping him. It’s not like the Giants are hopeless, either. They have driven in Ray Durham 33% of the time and Omar Vizquel 31% of the time, and even Pedro Feliz has scored 26% of the time his teammates have had a chance to drive him in.

While Molina’s teammates have been the least helpful group in baseball, you might be a bit surprised to learn that Frank Thomas has received the second-worst support. Thomas has scored just 55 runs, despite having 21 home runs and reaching base 179 times, giving his teammates a success rate of 19 percent. Thomas has certainly hurt his own cause with a complete lack of mobility, and his .370 on-base percentage means that the Blue Jays have had plenty of chances to fail to drive him in.

The two players at the top of the list are not really a surprise: Jimmy Rollins and Curtis Granderson. They have combined for 39 triples and 52 stolen bases, making their teammates’ jobs a lot easier when trying to drive them in. Rollins has scored 48% of the time that his teammates have had a chance to drive him in, and Granderson has scored 47% of the time. Their combination of extra-base power, speed and potent hitters behind them maximizes their contribution to the runs category.

This combination seems to explain most of the hitters at the top of the list: Bobby Abreu (4th), Shane Victorino (5th), Gary Sheffield (6th), and Coco Crisp (8th) possess most of these ingredients for success. Ian Kinsler (7th) probably fits into this list as well, with his 19 stolen bases and 21 doubles. Perhaps the strangest names in the top ten are David DeJesus, who ranks third with a 45% scoring rate, and Placido Polanco, who ranks ninth with a 43% scoring rate. Polanco plays for a good Tigers team and has 32 doubles, but it is still impressive that a player with his average speed has posted such a good success rate with a .393 on-base percentage. The presence of DeJesus on the list probably supports the praise for his baserunning ability and underscores the effectiveness of the Royals’ offense. DeJesus has a .374 on-base percentage, but just 9 stolen bases and 35 extra-base hits.

The other players at the bottom of the list should not be particularly surprising either. None of them are what you would describe as mobile: Paul Konerko, Pat Burrell, Jim Thome, Sean Casey, Ronnie Belliard, Brian McCann, Barry Bonds, and Ryan Howard round out the bottom ten. The Phillies’ offense has not been bad this season, and the Braves have been adequate as well, so it seems that while the top players can be explained by a combination of speed, extra-base power and good teammates, the bottom players are pretty well explained by a lack of speed.

Are there any players who show up near the bottom of the list (evidence of a lack of speed) that might be surprising? Delmon Young ranks 146th out of 168 players with a scoring rate of just 26%, and he has a solid 34 doubles and 8 stolen bases. His .324 on-base percentage even indicates that his teammates haven’t squandered that many opportunities. It might be worth considering that Delmon has some learning to do on the bases (or maybe the Devil Rays need a new third base coach!) Vladimir Guerrero has only scored on 27% of his chances, despite an impressive 45 doubles – maybe the hitters behind him just are not very good.

Finally, I will leave you with one more surprising ranking: Dan Uggla ranks 11th at 42%, and he is tied with Jose Reyes, Juan Pierre, Corey Patterson, and Ryan Theriot – a quartet generally considered to be pretty speedy. While Uggla’s presence on the list is surprising, his 43 doubles help to explain things a bit, as does the fact that he hits in front of Miguel Cabrera. There is one other player at 43 percent – Craig Biggio. Not bad for an old guy from Long Island!

In case you’re curious, here’s a list of the batters responsible for helping these guys make this list – the top 10 players in terms of driving in teammates (RBI – HR):

  1. Magglio Ordonez

  2. Vladimir Guerrero

  3. Alex Rodriguez

  4. Matt Holliday

  5. Mike Lowell

  6. Victor Martinez

  7. Garrett Atkins

  8. Bobby Abreu

  9. Nick Markakis

  10. Carlos Lee

Questions and comments may be sent to johnfranco@sportsgrumblings.com



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