With James Shields down for the season, J.P. Howell steps in.

As the season winds down, it becomes all about the scoreboard watching, in both “real” and “fantasy” baseball. In the real game, it is all about watching how Eric Gagne and Terry Francona attempt to set a record for simultaneously-induced heart attacks in New England and watching the Mets go from shoo-ins to potential also-rans. In the fantasy game, it is all about watching those counting categories, to make sure you get that one last win or one last save you need while making sure your opponent does not get that one homer or one steal he needs.

Where can you pick up a little help in those counting categories? Well, that is why we are here. We have a pitcher returning in Tampa Bay that will get an unexpected start tonight, with two more to come next week – can he help you in the short time left? Meanwhile, in the National League, we have a young outfielder that not only is getting a chance now but is also hitting better than expected. Can it last, and if he is still available should you grab him? Read on.

J.P. Howell, Starting Pitcher, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Just a few short days ago here at Sports Grumblings, I had written off Howell’s chances of being a productive contributor the rest of the way. After all, the Rays’ rotation was not only stable for the first time in ages but also pitching well. However, the Rays have decided to shut James Shields down for the season, so the turns in the rotation that were coming to Shields, such as today’s, will go to Howell. Do not worry about Shields, though; this is purely a precautionary measure due to how many innings Shields has tossed.

What can we expect from Howell then? To figure that out, we need to look at where he came from first.

James Phillip Howell was originally drafted as a second round pick by the Braves in 2001 out of high school, but he instead chose to attend college, which was originally USC before transferring to the University of Texas. There, he would go 10-2 with a 2.52 ERA in his first season in 15-2 with a 2.13 ERA in his second season. His success at Austin would net him another high draft selection, this time by the Royals in the first round, thirty-first overall, in the 2004 draft. He would then appear in six games with Idaho Falls in the Pioneer League, but he would kick off his pro career in earnest in 2005.

Howell would spend a lot of the 2005 season on the move. Things would start out for Howell in High-A in the California League, and in eight starts there he was 3-1 with an impressive 1.96 ERA, with 48 strikeouts and 24 walks in 46 innings. Pleased with his performance, and desperate for pitching at the higher levels of the system, the Royals promoted him to Double-A.

Once he hit Wichita, one has to hope that Howell did not sign a long-term lease, as he was there for just three starts. In that time, he was 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA, striking out 23 and walking just five. Pleased, the Royals would push him again.

Now, the rapid rise was starting to show so wear. Howell would be 3-1 in his seven starts with Omaha, but his ERA would rise, to 4.06, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio in 37 2/3 innings was just 29:19, a far cry from what he had done at other levels. Most organizations would take that as a sign that he should remain in the minors for more seasoning, but the Royals are not most teams, so he would be promoted once again.

Unfortunately for Howell, the majors are not as forgiving as the minors are. In fifteen starts, Howell was 3-5 with a horrid 6.19 ERA. In 72 2/3 innings, Howell would strike out 54 and walk 39. Clearly, he was not ready. This was a mistake.

Learning somewhat from their mistakes, the Royals would send Howell back to Triple-A to open the season, and his results with Omaha were spectacular, as he was 5-3 with a 2.62 ERA in ten starts, with 49 strikeouts and 15 walks in 55 innings. I of course said learning somewhat, not learning, as the Royals would then trade Howell, receiving the mediocre Joey Gathright in return.

Unfortunately for Howell, moving to Tampa is not exactly moving to a franchise known for developing pitchers, and he would struggle in his debut with the club, going 3-2 with a 4.75 ERA in eight starts in Durham and 1-3 with a 5.10 ERA in eight starts in the Devil Rays.

This year would see Howell split time between Triple-A and the majors once again. Overall, in 21 starts in Triple-A, Howell was 7-8 with a 3.38 ERA, striking out 145 and walking only 34 in 128 innings. Before his start today, though, he had been far less successful in the bigs, going 1-4 with a 7.36 ERA, with 37 strikeouts and 17 walks in 40 1/3 innings.

That brings us to today, with Howell getting the start for the Rays against the Angels. In six innings, Howell allowed five hits, one walk, and two earned runs, and he struck out eight in the loss. The Rays have to be pleased with the outing.

Howell is still just 24 years old, and there is clearly talent in his arm. Wins in his last two starts might not be likely, but he will pick up some strikeouts, and he looks like he might be worth taking a risk on with next year in mind.

Josh Anderson, Outfielder, Houston Astros

Josh Anderson can run. There have never been any doubts about that. However, for too much of his career, that is all he really has done. In two seasons in Eastern Kentucky in college and five seasons in the minors, the most home runs Anderson has ever produced at any stop is six. Since leaving college, he has never had more than 50 RBI at any stop.

He is clearly not a power-hitter – we have established that. As for the speedster part we alluded to, Anderson had 40 stolen bases in 48 attempts in Triple-A this year, 43 in 56 attempts last year in Double-A, and 50 in 69 attempts in Double-A in 2005. In 2004, he had 78 combined between two stops at A-ball. He can run.

The problem here though is that he can run and he cannot hit for power, and that means leadoff material. That would not be a problem if not for the fact that Anderson simply does not get on base as a leadoff hitter is expected to. Anderson picked up 513 at-bats with the Express this year, yet he walked just 32 times, and he also struck out 75 times. Simply put, a .325 on-base percentage is not leadoff hitter material.

That has not stopped the Astros of course from using him in that spot, as they really have no other options. Heading into today, though, Anderson did have a .552 OBP and .480 batting average in 11 games, so maybe I am being a little too harsh here.

No, I am not – much of that average is due to one, just one, very good game. In that game, Anderson went 5-for-5 with two runs and three RBI. Take away that one game and that average drops to .350. Sure, that is pretty good, but again more a product of an overall small sample than anything else.

However, none of that really matters in fantasy ball at this point in the season – if you are looking to gain serious points in batting average, give up, as it is too late. What you are looking for is the counting categories, and Anderson should help in steals, right? Nope – he has yet to have one in the bigs so far.

I know I have been really negative here, but there is a point. There is a saying that goes, “those that can’t, teach.” There should be a baseball equivalent, “those that can’t, run.” There are a plethora of “stolen base prospects” where all they really do is run, and that is their sole calling card. More often than not, these Brian Hunter-wannabes offer little in the way of productive numbers other than steals, and most never stick around at all. As much as I personally like Anderson – having spoken with him on a few occasions, he is very likeable and a player I find myself rooting for quite easily – without a dramatic improvement in his plate discipline, he is doomed to fail. Further, without stolen bases, he has little he can offer fantasy squads down the stretch.

Last Week Revisited

Last week, we told you to go crazy for Daric Barton and to not bother with Ross Detwiler. Were we right?

Since last week, Barton has hit .333 with a home run, four RBI, seven runs scored, and he even swiped a base. Yeah, we were right there. As for Detwiler, he has not pitched a lick since his debut, so we were right there too. Overall, a win-win for us.

Questions and comments may be sent to markhaverty@sportsgrumblings.com