Steals are up, but average way down, for Rafael Furcal this month.
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The fantasy baseball season is winding down, and I feel confident that readers who have followed all of the sage advice dispensed here in Statistics 101 have their champagne on ice as they cruise to victory. The trade deadline has come and gone, the rookie call-ups are all up and playing, and it’s time to worry about football. All of this likely means that you aren’t paying much attention to the players who are not on your fantasy baseball teams, so this week I will be highlighting a few of the outstanding performances that you might have missed.
The Pittsburgh Pirates clinched their 15th straight losing season earlier this week, which makes me wonder if any fantasy owners have ever gone that long without winning a title. Lost in another losing season by the Pirates is the performance of Jack Wilson, who is hitting .481-5-16 for the month of September. Wilson got off to a very slow start this year, but he has been red hot down the stretch and should finish with his second best season (his numbers through Tuesday: .295-12-56). Does this mean Wilson is a great investment for 2008? Probably not, considering he followed his career year in 2004 with two lousy years, but the fact that he has now produced two useful fantasy seasons should earn him a couple extra dollars at auction next year.
The Los Angeles Angels’ Chone Figgins battled injuries during the early part of the season, but he has been one of the best players in the league since getting healthy. Figgins hit .461 with 14 steals in June, .351 with 9 steals in July, .342 with 6 steals in August, and he has followed that up with a .471 average and 6 steals in September. In fact, he is hitting an amazing .405 after the all-star break. His contact rate is down, but his walk rate is up. Surely Figgins won’t hit .400 next year, but you would be wise to spend the extra dollar in case he hits .330 with 50-plus steals – a realistic possibility at this pace.
The Devil Rays’ Carlos Pena has proven that he is more than just a one-month sensation, posting season numbers of .277-40-112. Pena has probably fueled many fantasy teams where he was added as a reserve pick or waiver claim, and his owners are likely thinking of him as a very good keeper. Pena has given them reason to feel secure, hitting .295-7-20 in September against some (allegedly) tough pitching from teams like Boston and Los Angeles.
James Loney was considered a good line-drive hitter who might not hit for enough power to be a useful fantasy first baseman. He has started to answer those concerns with a sizzling .391-6-20 performance in September, doubling his home run total to 12 for the season. Loney still hits a lot of groundballs (46% of his balls in play), but he has also hit 7 doubles in September, so it looks like he is starting to hit the ball with more authority. Most owners would be unimpressed with 16 home runs in 400 career at bats from a first baseman, so this could be your chance to get Loney cheap.
Loney’s teammate, Rafael Furcal, has had a disappointing season for most of his fantasy owners. Despite playing in 138 games thus far, Furcal is hitting just .270-6-47 with a meager 25 stolen bases. He did get off to a slow start due to an ankle injury and the fact that he was hitting ahead of Juan Pierre, who never took any pitches, but Furcal’s struggles have been a mystery to many of his owners. Things have looked slightly better in September (sort of) as Furcal has stolen 12 bases, but he has also hit just .210. Before you get excited about Furcal, though, note that 13 of his 25 steals have come against the Padres, who have been completely unable to throw anyone out all year.
The Milwaukee Brewers must be ecstatic about the performance of rookie Yovani Gallardo down the stretch. Gallardo has started 3 games, working 21 innings with an ERA of 0.00 and a record of 3-0. He has also posted a solid 17:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. With an overall record of 9-4, 3.66 and almost a strikeout per inning, the 21-year old Gallardo has established himself as a possible ace in the near future.
You might have missed it, but A.J. Burnett is actually back. And pitching extremely well, to boot. Burnett has started 4 games in September with a record of 2-0 and a 2.27 ERA. He has also fanned 34 batters in 31.2 innings, while walking just 7. Burnett also posted a record of 2-1, 1.63 in 4 August starts after missing July with a sore shoulder. You might think it was safe to say that Burnett has not pitched this well in a while, but he has actually had a very good season: 9-7, 153.1 innings and a 3.40 ERA. Unfortunately, he seems like a poor bet for next season due to his workload: 118 pitches per game in September and 106 pitches per game this season. You have to wonder what the Blue Jays are thinking, but it just goes to show that it is important to pay attention to what happens in September, even beyond just looking at the numbers.
In case you’re curious, here is a list of some other (mostly young) pitchers who have pitched well down the stretch:
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James Shields, Tampa Bay
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Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles (NL)
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Jason Hammel, Tampa Bay
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Jon Lester, Boston
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Justin Verlander, Detroit
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Edinson Volquez, Texas
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Jon Garland, Chicago (AL)
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Fausto Carmona, Cleveland
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Dustin McGowan, Toronto
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Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay
Questions and comments may be sent to johnfranco@sportsgrumblings.com