Selling Dustin Pedroia early might have been a mistake, but how did the rest of the AL Grumblings' predictions work out?

In this final installment of AL Grumblings, I will take a look back at some of the highlights (and lowlights) for the predictions/comments that I made during the year. I’ll present those in italics, with my current comments to follow.

From May 1

What do you know about Reggie Willits? Likely nothing. However, he is a legitimate fourth outfielder in Los Angeles and might luck into more at-bats with the injury to Garret Anderson. Willits is unique on the Angels team in that he is a friend to the base on balls. And, as apparently required of all Angels’ hitters, he is a base-stealer. It wouldn’t be out of the question for Willits to get double-digit steals this season if he manages enough plate appearances

When this article was written, Willits had two steals, four walks and 29 at-bats. He now has 26 steals and 69 walks. He is a solid player for the Angels, but should not be mistaken for a full-time player.

From May 8

Neither [Alex Cora or Dustin Pedroia] (barring injury) will reach 450 at-bats and neither guy will get under 200 at bats. Basically, they are both almost useless from a fantasy baseball perspective since neither has pop nor do they steal bases.

When I wrote that, Pedroia was batting 0.239. Pedroia will finish with over 500 at-bats and mid-80s runs scored plus six steals. And, of course, he is batting 0.315. That was a flub on my part.

From May 15

If you have Cust on your team, you owe it to yourself to see if you can sell high here.

Cust has a 0.412 OBP and a 0.520 SLG. If you sold high on May 15^th, you likely sold way to quick (like I did...). However, I’m risk averse, anyway.

From May 22

Thus, if I were you, I would try to cleave [Milton Bradley] from a disgruntled owner right about now and reap the benefits in the second-half of the season. Of course, he could just as well miss three months with an injury, so keep that in mind

Bradley did both. He was effective in the second half…when he played. In only 137 at-bats in the second half, he had 11 homers and 30 RBI. Typical Bradley.

From May 29

I am surprised that Bobby Crosby has made it this far into the season without spending time on the DL. He was really hit-or-miss in spring training as to whether or not his back would hold up. As it is, if you invest in him now expecting him to show that “22 HR” form from his rookie season, keep in mind that came with a 0.239 batting average.

Crosby actually made it to July 25 before being lost for the season. He finishes 2007 with eight home runs and a 0.226 batting average, which is eerily similar to his 2006 stats (9 HR and 0.229 average). If, during the off-season (and in February/March) you hear touts talking about “this is the year for Bobby Crosby”, it is okay for you to just yawn…and bid him up during the draft!

From June 5

I have read about, potentially, Cliff Lee being sent to Triple-A if he does not turn it around before Jake Westbrook returns. I cannot see that happening at all.

Well…Lee didn’t get farmed at that point. However, he did later in the year. Now his career is in jeopardy and that 18-win season seems like an eternity ago. He is still owed almost ten million over the next two years, so it will be interesting to see how the Indians play it. I suspect he’ll just have to compete for a job during the spring.

From June 12

[Yuniesky] Betancourt is limited in what he can do, but he plays everyday and should reach career highs in RBI, runs and HR this season.

And he has…but barely. He is a guy who could go from nine home runs one year to 23 the next. And likely for a buck.

From June 19

When looking for guys who should rebound from atrocious hit rates on balls in play, I think it is important to look find players who have decent K-rates. Of the 70 pitchers in the AL with more than 40 IP this season, Kevin Millwood ranks 67th with a batting average on balls-in-play of 0.360. However, his 7.3 Ks / 9 IP is attractive. With a regression to the mean on hit rates plus a helpful K-rate, Millwood is a great target in a buy low move for pitching. Note that Felix Hernandez (he of the 9.7 Ks / 9 IP) is 69th in the AL with a batting average on balls-in-play of 0.365. On the flip side, Steve Trachsel is fourth in the AL with a 0.225 average on balls-in-play (and only 2.5 Ks/ 9 IP). Trachsel is on the short list of pitchers who are eligible to blow up (in a bad way) big time during the rest of the season.
Well…Trachsel blew up. Hernandez was better and Millwood (who had an ERA of 7.62 when this was written), currently sports a 5.16 ERA.

July 10

This was my “12/40” column…which are guys that have a shot to hit 12 HR and drive in 40 runs in the second half…and were likely in the waiver pool at the time (or obtained very, very cheaply)

No one really made a run at “12/40”, though Gload, Thames, Kubel and Catalanotto were effective.

July 17

Yes, [Vernon] Wells has already hit four home runs in July, but there is more there. Wells, with only 13 home runs on the season, has career highs in both plate patience and FB/GB ratio. So…he is seeing more pitches and hitting them in the air more often. For a 28 year old, I suspect we see a big power second half for Wells. At any rate, it is a good gamble.

Wells hit only three more homers the rest of the way for an ugly year. He was apparently injured for a long while, so maybe he will bounce back in 2008.  He still gets a little pass from me because of his (young) age, but I will stop bidding next year likely well before someone else.

July 24

At any rate, I just do not think [Mark Teixeira] is going to be traded. If Texas really wants to compete next year, isn’t it in their best interest to have Teixeira on their team? I mean, if they are going to trade him now for a collection of marginal players, why not just do something similar next July if they are out of the race? Of course, if they can get a Phillip Hughes type player now, then you might think about it seriously. So…my prediction is that Teixeira stays in Texas.

I was wrong. However, all Teixeira has done with the Braves is hit 14 home runs in 191 at-bats, including 49 RBI. My rotisserie team suffered the consequences…

August 7

At any rate, Danys Baez is apparently the closer now though his 0-5 record with an ERA north of 5 does not inspire confidence. Yeah, he might get a few saves here and there, but you expect Chad Bradford and/or Jamie Walker to get a few more chances as well. Thus, if you have a long reserve list, do not cut Bradford or Walker if you are desperate for saves.

Baez had two more saves after this writing, but he was not very effective. Walker did have two saves in that time and Bradford had one as well.

August 21

Vicente Padilla (SP, TEX) – Elbow concerns, which may or may not have hindered his control, have plagued Padilla for the bulk of the season. He returned from a rehab assignment last week and struck out eight, walking no one in five innings. He was throwing mid-90s in that start so he could be formidable down the stretch. Consider rostering if you need a strikeout pitcher. Note that Padilla is 64^th of 65 pitchers in batting average on balls in play for those AL hurlers who have thrown more than 80 innings this year…so he is also due some luck as well
He’s won three times since then and has lowered his ERA around a run.

Questions and comments can be sent to donvisco@sportsgrumblings.com