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For Better, For Worse --September 27, 2007
For Better, For Worse --September 27, 2007
By John Rakowski | Published  09/27/2007 | For Better-- For Worse - (2007)
John Rakowski
A life-long baseball and football fan, John has been a contributor to Sports  Grumblings since 1997.  John also has experience in brodacst radio, going back to his days as a newscaster at Fordham University's famous WFUV station, as well as guest sports at various sports talk radio stations around the country. John currently is the co-host of Gridiron Grumblings Live!.

In 2007, John was the recipient of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) award for Best Fantasy Football Series, for his outstanding column Snap, Crackle and Pop. 

View all articles by John Rakowski
Looking Back at the 2007 Fantasy Season: Bargains and Busts
Ryan Braun -- Fantasy Baseball
Ryan Braun certainly delivered for the price this year.

Fantasy baseball has evolved quite a bit from the early days. There are many tools and data available now on the internet. Online leagues provide pre-draft rankings, which are great for the novice fan. Last spring the rankings ensured that everyone in the world had Albert Pujols as the general-consensus top-pick. Looking back, that was not so helpful after all. If you had a chance to do it all over again, you would not take Pujols, you would take Alex Rodriguez. With the advantage of hindsight, would you even take Pujols in the first couple of rounds of your draft? Probably not.

For Better

This season, many pleasant surprises were no better than middle-to-late round picks. Some free agent pickups even made big contributions. You can compose a Bargain All-Star team from the surprises of 2007.

1B: Carlos Pena, Devil Rays: With apologies to Prince Fielder, Pena is the biggest bargain at first base. Fielder was at least on the radar screen in the spring, while Pena was undrafted in nearly every league. A late bloomer, the 29-year-old Pena posted career bests in home runs (42), RBI (116), runs (94), average (.277), OBP (.402), slugging (.402) and OPS (1.008). These numbers are as good or better than any first baseman with the exception of Fielder. All you had to do is pick him up as a free agent.

2B: Placido Polanco, Tigers: Tough call here between Brandon Phillips and Polanco, but we will go with Polanco as the better bargain since he was typically drafted very late and in some cases not at all. All Polanco did was hit .340, the third-best mark in baseball. His 103 runs scored are tied for third best among second basemen

SS: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins: The best fantasy shortstop (by a hair over Jimmy Rollins) was a middle round selection in preseason drafts. He was considered a poor-man’s Jose Reyes. This year he surpasses Reyes’ numbers in every category except steals. Nevertheless, Ramirez’ 51 steals rank third in the majors – not too shabby. Ramirez’ power numbers shot up in 2007, to 28 from 17 a year ago. Ramirez is a shortstop that hits like an outfielder, which is ironic because that is probably where he is going to end up due to his defensive shortcomings. That is not a factor in fantasy, and as long as he stays put, Ramirez is in the upper echelon of fantasy shortstops.

3B: Ryan Braun, Brewers: The Brewers brought up Braun at the end of May and since then he has compiled terrific numbers in an abbreviated season. As a rookie, his 33 HR rank second to A-Rod among third basemen. His .322 batting average is fourth among third sackers.

C: Russell Martin, Dodgers: Tough call between Jorge Posada and Martin, but Martin gets the nod since he was getting drafted about five rounds later than Posada. Martin has good numbers across the major categories, but there is one area where he really stands out. Martin leads all catchers with 21 steals, which is 300% more than the runner-up.

OF: Magglio Ordonez, Tigers: The 33-year old Ordonez is posting the best season of his career. He is healthier than he has been in years. Past injuries scared away many people and drove his draft ranking down to the middle rounds. Ordonez has been the best fantasy outfielder outside of Matt Holliday, who was also something of a bargain. Ordonez leads the majors with a .357 average and is second with 133 RBI.

OF: Curtis Granderson, Tigers: The third Tiger on our list, Granderson was another middle round pick that blossomed in 2007. Granderson became baseball’s first 20-20-20-20 player with over 20 HR, steals, doubles and triples. He raised his average to .301 and his slugging to .554 — both big jumps from his 2006 numbers. Granderson finishes the year as a top-10 fantasy outfielder. At only 26, Granderson still has upside and he will go high in 2008 drafts.

OF: Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks: The fans of Arizona love the quirky Byrnes. A complete fantasy player, Byrnes has made himself into a premier base stealer with 49 this season. He was a middle-round pick before the 2007 season started.

SP: Josh Beckett, Red Sox: This was a tough choice. Beckett, the major leagues win leader, gets the nod over Indians C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. Although their stats are comparable, Beckett was generally drafted in the middle rounds, about two or three rounds after Sabathia. It is tempting to take free agent pickup Carmona, but his strikeout totals were low (133 in 208 innings). If you had any of these starters on your fantasy roster, you had a bargain.

RP: Takashi Saito, Dodgers: Saito was ranked as a middle-tier closer before the 2007 draft, but he ended it as a top-tier closer. His stats compare well with anyone’s: 29 saves, 1.43 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 76 strikeouts in 61 1/3 innings.

For Worse

Now that we have compiled our Bargain All-Star team, it is time to look at the other side. These big names make up the All Underachievers team. They were all high draft picks in the spring, but under-performed relative to their draft position.

1B: Albert Pujols, Cardinals: Pujols recovered from a slow start and had a good year by anyone’s standard other than his own. As the first pick in practically every draft, the bar is set very high. At an offensive-oriented position, you have to compare Pujols to other heavy hitters and he is clearly behind Fielder, Pena, and David Ortiz. There are roughly twenty hitters with better fantasy seasons than Pujols. If you took Pujols first and had a chance to do it again, you would not.

2B: Felipe Lopez, Nationals: A top-ten 2B on draft boards before the season, Lopez had the benefit of dual 2B/SS rating. Lopez’ average plummeted in 2007 to .242 and his steals were way down, to only 24. Lopez was one of the most frequent roster drops of 2007

SS: Julio Lugo, Red Sox: A horrid start spoiled Lugo’s season. He was on the interstate, hitting .197 at the All-Star break. On fantasy draft day, Lugo was a top-ten shortstop with a dual 2B/SS rating, like Lopez. He expected to have a big year in Boston. Lugo actually did thrive at Fenway, hitting .295 at home. Unfortunately, he hit only .190 on the road. Lugo was another frequent midseason cut.

3B: Troy Glaus, Blue Jays: “Troid” Glaus’ season was tainted by injuries and scandal. He was a top-ten 3B on draft day, but his season ended with foot surgery on September 12 after a pedestrian 20 home run and 62 RBI season.

C: Joe Mauer, Twins: Injuries robbed Mauer of playing time and production. The top catcher on everyone’s draft board turned in a Paul Lo Duca-like season with only a .288 average.

OF: Jason Bay, Pirates: A two-time All-Star and a top-ten outfielder on the fantasy draft board, Bay never got it going in 2007. Bay started slowly and then… tapered off. Bay was coming off two monster years, where he averaged 34 home runs, 106 runs, 105 RBI, 16 steals and a .296 average. This year he is at 21-78-84-4-.248.

OF: Andruw Jones, Braves: Jones was one of the most consistent power hitters of the last decade. He is only 30 and going into a contract year, so you figure 40 home runs and 100 RBI at a minimum when you draft him. Wrong. Jones never got hot as we all expected and he ends his Braves career with a bitterly disappointing season: 26 home runs and only a .220 average.

OF: Johnny Damon, Yankees: There is a lot of competition for the last outfield spot on the All Underachieving team. You could go with Rocco Baldelli, Bill Hall, Vernon Wells, or J.D. Drew to name a few. Let’s “honor” Johnny Damon for his steady decline in production over the past couple of seasons.

SP: Chris Carpenter, Cardinals: Carpenter, a Cy Young winner in 2005, was ranked as the second-best starter after Johan Santana, and typically a second-round pick. His season ended on opening day after six innings – a deadly blow to your fantasy team if you drafted him. Carpenter had elbow surgery in August and is should be off your fantasy radar until the 2009 season.

RP: B.J. Ryan, RP, Blue Jays: Like Carpenter, Ryan exited the scene quickly. Ryan was a top five closer on the preseason draft boards, but he was toast by April 14. He had elbow surgery and will be sidelined until at least midseason, 2008.



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