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Playoff Grumblings -- October 3, 2007
Playoff Grumblings -- October 3, 2007
By Mark Allen Haverty | Published  10/3/2007 | Playoff Grumblings - (2007)
Mark Allen Haverty
Senior Editor Mark Haverty's work has regularly appears in such places as FOX Sports and Sporting News, where Mark is one of TSN's lead minor league analysts. Mark has also been featured in multiple print publications and as a featured guest on multiple radio shows.  

View all articles by Mark Allen Haverty
Angels/Sox and Cubs/Diamondbacks
  John Lackey -- Fantasy Baseball
Fortunately, the Fens was a swamp before the park, so they should be able to find somewhere to dump John Lackey's body after he's whacked by the Sox.

Yesterday, we looked at the Rockies/Phillies series kicking off this afternoon in Philadelphia. Today, we look at the two other series that are beginning today – the Angels and the Red Sox in the Fens and the Cubs heading to the desert to face the Diamondbacks in their home away from home. Like the Devil Rays when they face the Red Sox at Tropicana Park, the Diamondbacks will in all likelihood not be enjoying the benefits of being the home team, as Cubs’ fans will pack Chase Field tonight at 10:00 Eastern, 7:00 local time. The Diamondbacks’ ace takes the mound tonight for them, as Brandon Webb gets the start after going 18-10 in the regular season with a 3.01 ERA and a 194:72 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 236 1/3 innings this season. Webb has made only one start against the Cubs this year, in Wrigley, where he lost despite holding the Cubbies to five hits, one walk, and three runs, two earned, in seven innings, and he struck out four.

Carlos Zambrano had been on a roll in the middle of the season but he has not finished the season strong, with a record of 4-6 and a 5.31 ERA over his last ten starts. Zambrano has not had a start against the Diamondbacks this year, but he does enjoy pitching away from Wrigley Field. In his 17 starts at home, Zambrano is 6-9 with a 4.96 ERA. On the road, however, Zambrano is 12-4 with a 3.06 ERA, and he picked up 17 more strikeouts and five fewer walks in 13 more innings on the road than at home.

The key for the Cubs is going to be which Aramis Ramirez is going to show up. Is it the Aramis that had only two home runs and 13 RBI in 73 August at-bats, or is it going to be the one that crushed the ball down the stretch for the Cubs, with 8 home runs and 21 RBI in 101 September at-bats? If it is the latter and not the former, watch out Diamondbacks. If the Diamondbacks can contain him though, the Cubs will have issues offensively.

The key batter for the Diamondbacks is clubhouse leader Eric Byrnes. Byrnes was a much better hitter in the first half, with a .306 batting average, .363 OBP, and 14 home runs before the break, compared with a .258 batting average, .340 OBP, and 7 home runs after, but he has been much more dangerous on the basepaths in the second half. Before the All Star break, Byrnes had swiped 17 bases in 23 attempts; since, however, he has successfully swiped 33 in 34 attempts. The Cubs need to keep Byrnes off the bases or he will do everything possible to rattle Zambrano, and he will succeed.

Over in Fenway Park, the Boston Red Sox will be sending the only 20-game winner to the mound. Josh Beckett has shown that he is up for the big game when called upon, as we doubt he got the World Series MVP just for good looks. Okay, maybe he did, but we really cannot judge that here, nor should we, and this whole conversation is starting to creep me out. Over his last ten starts, Beckett is 7-2 with a 3.01 ERA, with 71 strikeouts and only 13 walks in 68 2/3 innings, and for the season, he is 20-7 with a 194:40 K/BB. Beckett has faced the Angels twice already this season, both times at home, and he is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA against them. In 13 innings against the Halos, Beckett has thirteen strikeouts and just two walks.

John Lackey is far less pleased to see his opponents. Sure, he is 5-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 56:9 K/BB in his last ten, but he has never had success against the Red Sox. In his two starts against the Sox, both in Fenway, Lackey was 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA, with twenty hits, two home runs, and one walk allowed in 9 2/3 innings. This is not a fluke either; in the three years prior, Lackey was 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA in four starts at Fenway. This is going to be a very rough night for Mr. Lackey.

One thing is for sure – Vladimir Guerrero cannot win this whole thing by himself, and the Red Sox will not let him. Gary Matthews Jr., the Angels big free agent signing this past offseason, has been left the postseason roster, leaving Reggie Willits in his place. Willits has had a nice season, hitting .293 with 27 stolen bases, but the power is nonexistent, with no home runs this year, and Matthews’ potential punch will be sorely missed.

For the Sox, can J.D. Drew keep the hot bat hot? Over his last ten games, Drew hit .371 with three home runs, twelve RBI, and six runs scored in 35 at-bats. Can Drew’s hot finish make up for what has been a forgettable first year in Boston? A hot playoffs will certainly make everyone in Boston love him.

That’s it for today – tomorrow, we break down today’s three games while previewing the Yankees/Indians series. Go Indians!

Wait – did I just say, “go Indians?” That sounds rather partisan. Oh, heck with it – you all know I am biased. Go Indians!

Questions and comments may be sent to markhaverty@sportsgrumblings.com



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