Should you be in the market for Morneau?

With the season officially over, I wanted to use this week’s column to get the fantasy off-season started. After all, the playoffs are fun to watch, but this season’s fantasy winner is probably already working on defending their title. I wanted to discuss a few players that fantasy owners will want to target in the off-season, and a few that they will want to avoid. Obviously this column will not focus on players whose value is inflated or deflated by playoff hype, since we do not have much of that yet (though I will say, Jeff Francis owners should be very encouraged). However, some players had noteworthy seasons (good or bad) that you will want to keep in mind.

Several major league general managers are already thinking about Andruw Jones now that the Braves have announced that they will not attempt to re-sign him. Coming off a miserable season where he hit .222-26-83, Jones may not get the paycheck he hoped for, and he might also be available cheaply in your fantasy league. Savvy owners will note that Jones had a BABIP of just .248 and expect an improvement, but don’t risk too much on him: he also had a BABIP of .244 in 2005, his strikeout rate is climbing and his HR/FB% has fallen for three straight years. Jones is a better bet in leagues where you can trade for him and wait to see where he signs, not so much in leagues where you would be stuck with him.

The Diamondbacks’ Chris Young warrants the occasional comparison to Andruw, given his position (CF), excellent range, and strikeout proclivities. He also had a low BABIP like Jones this year, checking in at just .260. That gave Young a batting average of .237 that marred an otherwise outstanding season (32 home runs, 27 stolen bases, 85 runs scored). While he did strike out in 24.8 percent of his at-bats, Young also displayed excellent speed that should allow him to increase his BABIP significantly next year. His owners will be understandably hesitant to part with him, but have faith that overpaying a bit will be justified.

Justin Morneau had a bit of a disappointing follow-up to his MVP season of 2006, hitting .271 compared to a .321 average last year. His BABIP was a major culprit, dropping from .335 to .276 – it seems like an easy guess that reality lies somewhere between the two extremes. Morneau’s other numbers have been consistent, so if the Twins’ offense is any good (that remains to be seen) he should be a good buy-low candidate if his owner thinks 2005 was a fluke.

Chris Young’s teammate, Stephen Drew, also had a bit of a down season compared to the expectations set for him before the season. Drew hit just .238-12-60, and while his owners won’t complain too much about the power numbers, the average needs to improve. He did strike out 18.4 percent of the time – a bit much for someone without a lot of power – but his .271 BABIP leaves a lot of room for improvement. Drew’s owner might be a bit disappointed with his first full season, which means now is the time to pry him loose.

I discussed B.J. Upton in an earlier column this year, pointing out his unsustainably good BABIP. He proved me wrong, hitting .399 on balls in play for the year (474 at-bats) to post a .300 average despite a strikeout rate of 32.5 percent. I am going to taunt Upton again by pointing out that his BABIP still isn’t sustainable, and recommending that you should trade him if you can get good value. Keep in mind, though, that he is just 23 years old and has excellent speed and power, so don’t sell him too short.

Upton ranks among the top four players in BABIP this season, but his name is not the one that sticks out like a sore thumb. Chone Figgins, Upton, Ichiro Suzuki, and Jorge Posada round out the top quartet. Three of these players have excellent speed, and the other is a 36-year old catcher. Posada probably doesn’t have much trade value, but if anyone expects him to hit .338 again, feel free to take them up on their offer. The player who ranked fifth in BABIP is a better sell-high candidate: Magglio Ordonez, who used a .385 BABIP to cruise to the American League batting title. Ordonez certainly had a season for the ages, but I wouldn’t bet on him doing it again.

Chase Utley probably would have been a player that I would single out for a decline in batting average due to his high BABIP, but last season’s mark of .346 actually pales in comparison to this year’s .368. Utley benefits from a friendly ballpark and decent speed, but most mortal players would be unable to sustain that level of good fortune. He is likely to experience a drop-off next year, but given his five-tool ability and elite production from second base, most owners will want to hold onto him anyway and hope for the best.

Here is a list of a few more players with high BABIPs that could be in for a decline in 2008:

1. Edgar Renteria, Atlanta Braves
2. Jack Cust, Oakland A’s
3. Reggie Willits, Los Angeles Angels
4. Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies

Questions and comments may be sent to johnfranco@sportsgrumblings.com