Manny Corpas was one of the many reasons that buying saves in the draft was a mistake this year.

Each year, there are some certainties within fantasy baseball that should not shock anyone who played the game for several years. There will be devastating, catastrophic injuries that derail entire teams (Chris Carpenter anyone?), colossal busts (Richie Sexson), immense surprises (Ryan Braun) and loads of volatility with everyone’s favorite contrived statistic, the save.

Every spring, fantasy owners congregate for their annual draft or auction and like clockwork, those deemed the top closers are paid the premium in terms of double-digit auction dollars ranging into the $30s or drafted with an early round draft pick sometime in those first four rounds or so. Is it worth it? There is a modicum of consistency atop the closer ranks, but it is not nearly as long as many would have you believe.

When looking at the top five in saves for each of the last eight years, only one player appears more than half of the time (Trevor Hoffman, 5). Beyond that, eight other players occupy multiple spots within those 40. Of course, one of the players is on a team where he is no longer the closer (Eric Gagne, 3), another is now a starter (John Smoltz, 2), another is out of baseball (Robb Nen, 2) and still another has had a precipitous decline in the past two years making it unlikely that he will return to the ranks (Eddie Guardado, 2).

With nine players occupying 24 of the 40 (60%) spots available, one might wonder why I would suggest there is such volatility in closing. A lot of it is because outside of mainstays like Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, Hoffman and a few others, closers are hanging onto their role by a thread. Point being, investing money or top draft picks in March/April closers (even Mo, K-Rod, or Hoffman) is a complete waste.

For “real” baseball standards, I can understand why the Yankees and Angels would pay just about any amount to ensure that Rivera and Rodriguez finish off their games, but in fantasy baseball, the goal is not to win games late; it is to accumulate as many saves as possible. With that being the goal, a savvy owner needs to know that his/her dollars and early draft picks are better spent on bankable talent. Throughout the season, EVERY season, saves will come available and those paying attention can contend or win the category without an ace closer meanwhile the Rivera dollars or draft pick can be invested in offense.

How prevalent are saves? The following chart shows that over a quarter of the players in the last eight years that registered at least one save will grab at least nine more throughout that season. Almost 20% of those players will notch 19 more after that first one.

Take a look at the rosters in your leagues. How many money-placing rosters included the likes of Jeremy Accardo, Manny Corpas, Kevin Gregg, Al Reyes, Jose Valverde, and David Weathers? Those six players racked up 33 saves combined last year or 5.5 each and keep in mind that 30 of those came from Valverde and Weathers. This year? 185. That’s an average of 31 apiece. Only Reyes had an earned run average over 3.59 and none of the six-pack topped 1.23 in WHIP. Furthermore, of the six, it is likely that only Valverde and perhaps Weathers were even picked up in the initial auction or draft.

I wonder how many leagues had either Matt Capps or Joakim Soria rostered at the outset of the 2007 season. All they did this season was increase their save totals by 17 from 2006 while mowing hitters down and putting together sick rate statistics. Capps had 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings and a 2.28 earned run average and 1.01 WHIP while earning his 18 saves. Soria was impressed, but decided to take it a step further with 9.8 strikeouts per nine, a 2.48 earned run average and miniscule 0.94 WHIP during his rookie season that saw him collect 17 saves.

Four players, all some of the biggest names in closing, lost 10 or more saves off of their 2006 totals. Brian Fuentes, Brad Lidge, Chris Ray, and Huston Street had 132 saves between them last year (33/player). This year, they had a whopping 71 (about 18/player). Each registered at least eight strikeouts per nine innings pitched (two topped 11) and their rate statistics were plenty viable for their teams. The problem comes in the cost that teams paid to acquire those numbers.

So while some owners are using an early pick or precious auction dollars on closers, other, wiser owners are ignoring the trend and investing in their offense. Think about it. Would you rather have three spots dispersed between an “ace” closer and two average hitters that might smack 15+ home runs or would you rather have those spots dispersed between a 30+ home run hitter, a 20+ home run hitter and cheap, end-game pitcher with great peripherals that could snatch an uncertain closing situation as the season progresses?

Home runs are, as expected, much more prevalent than saves, but of course they are more widely dispersed as well. Look at the following chart:

It’s easy to grab 10 home runs given that nearly half of the players that hit one in a season will hit at least nine more. Cornerstone home run hitters aren’t nearly as prevalent many might assume. Sure, power is a big part of the game these days and there are certainly more home runs that there used to be, but I was surprised to see that over the past eight seasons, only 7% of hitters are hitting 30 or more home runs.

Taking the route of stocking up on offense during the early part of a fantasy auction or draft will require legwork during the season to make up for the lack of “guaranteed” saves. Any owner worth their salt knows that it’s a marathon that requires plenty of work and studying as well as some good fortune, too. That said, I firmly believe that owners go a long way towards creating their own good fortune.

Acquire Talent, Not Roles

Matt Capps was easily the most qualified pitcher to close for the Pittsburgh Pirates once Mike Gonzalez left in an off-season trade, but Salomon Torres inexplicably started the season as the closer. Capps had a 4.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2006, Torres’ was 1.9.

Kevin Gregg had an uninspired 2006 as a middle reliever, but racked up almost a strikeout per inning and his 3.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio was rated 36th in the majors among pitchers with at least 60 innings of work. No one could’ve predicted that he would assume the closer’s role and rack up 32 saves with the Florida Marlins, but once their situation got painfully uneasy (thanks to Jorge Julio), Gregg’s peripherals suggested he could succeed if given the chance.

Know the Backups

Not every change to the closer’s role comes because of ineffectiveness. Sometimes injury can play a role and that gives owners even less time to be prepared to pick up the slack in saves. B.J. Ryan was an absolutely dominating force in 2006 for the Toronto Blue Jays. In 2007, he was done pitching for the year by April 15th. Jason Frasor was the first to get a shot at those saves, but flamed out before relinquishing the role to Jeremy Accardo. Even owners with “can’t-miss” closers need to know the backfill of their players. Frasor and Accardo combined for 33 saves, just five less than Ryan’s 2006 total.

I am starting to feel like the guy at the Cleveland Indians that bangs the drum before each pitch at Jacob’s Field. This is not the first piece I have written on this subject and as long as fantasy owners continue to sink big money or early round picks into top tier closers, it won’t be the worst. Of course, if they continue to make the mistake, I can continue to exploit it, so I should probably shut my trap and let it be!

Questions and comments may be sent to paulsporer@sportsgrumblings.com.