Can Hideki Okajima hold up, or will the overuse get to him when it matters most?

Tonight, the Rockies and Red Sox get back to action, with the Rockies facing their best matchup of the series. Daisuke Matsuzaka takes the mound for the Red Sox while the Rockies counter with Josh Fogg. Dice-K has struggled throughout the playoffs, with an ERA of 5.65 through three appearances. However, he did pick up one win at least. The big question though is going to be the Coors Field factor. On one hand, Fenway Park has not been kind to Dice-K, as his home ERA was over eight-tenths of a run higher at home than on the road, but it is not like he is visiting a pitcher’s park, or even a neutral park. Further, can his breaking pitches break as they normally should in the thin Colorado atmosphere? If they are not breaking properly, how quickly can the Red Sox get him out of the game?

For Fogg, this will be just his second postseason start, but he came up huge in his first one, wherein he held the Diamondbacks to seven hits, one walk, and one earned run in six innings of work, and he struck out three. This was his second win of the postseason, as he had one in the NLDS after two scoreless innings of relief. Fogg does not like pitching at home, though, as his ERA was barely under six in fourteen regular season appearances in Coors Field. That did not hurt him in the playoffs so far, but that could catch up to him here.

The biggest change for the Red Sox in the move to Denver we discussed yesterday, and that is the loss of Kevin Youkilis from the lineup tonight. Despite being an American League team, the Sox might have a deeper bench than the Rockies for tonight’s game, though. The Sox have Youkilis available for first and third base substitutions, Alex Cora available at second and short, and Eric Hinske providing some power off the bat and the ability to play either corner infield or outfield spot. In addition, Coco Crisp brings speed off the bench and a late-inning defensive replacement for Manny Ramirez (with Jacoby Ellsbury shifting from center to left and Crisp in center). The Rockies’ bench features Jeff Baker, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, and Jamey Carroll – decent talents in their own right, but not in the same caliber.

Where the Rockies have a distinct advantage though is in both their bullpen talent and knowledge of how to use a bullpen in Colorado. They are far better prepared for what the thin atmosphere will do to their pitchers, and they have far more arms that they can trust out there than the Red Sox do. Sure, Hideki Okajima has been solid for the Red Sox this postseason, but it has been a very long season for him so far, with the Sox’ season being far longer than he was used to in Japan and the innings starting to pile up for him this postseason. Beyond Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon, though, whom do the Red Sox really trust? Mike Timlin? Javier Lopez? Manny Delcarmen? Lopez has an ERA of 15.43 this postseason. Delcarmen has an ERA of 9.00 this postseason. Timlin has yet to allow a run this postseason, but how safe is he considering his injury history and his age? Of course, then there is Eric Gagne, who was supposed to be the reason the Red Sox were a lock for the World Series but has instead become a liability.

The Rockies pen is anchored by Manny Corpas, who has allowed just one earned run in eight postseason appearances. Corpas has struck out six and has yet to walk a batter. Brian Fuentes, the former closer, did allow three runs in the NLCS, but he is so far 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in eight postseason appearances, with eleven strikeouts and just three walks. Matt Herges, also a former closer, albeit not with the Rockies, has yet to allow a run in six appearances. Ryan Speier has yet to allow a run to score in his three appearances. You get the idea – the Sox have two they can trust, one of whom they are risking overusing, whereas the Rockies have four, all of whom will be up and ready to go when needed.

Further, as we said when we were looking at the lineups as we headed in to Boston, these Rockies hitters are far superior at home than on the road. The Coors Field effect will help the Red Sox too certainly, but the Rockies team is built for it. The Rockies’ outfielders are going to be far more comfortable playing the spacious outfield than the Sox will, although the speed of J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury should help somewhat.

Our take? This series goes back to Boston.

Sunday, we look back at Game Three and preview Game Four.

Questions and comments can be sent to markhaverty@sportsgrumblings.com