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Playoff Grumblings -- Countdown to Game Four
Playoff Grumblings -- Countdown to Game Four
By Mark Allen Haverty | Published  10/28/2007 | Playoff Grumblings - (2007)
Mark Allen Haverty
Senior Editor Mark Haverty's work has regularly appears in such places as FOX Sports and Sporting News, where Mark is one of TSN's lead minor league analysts. Mark has also been featured in multiple print publications and as a featured guest on multiple radio shows.  

View all articles by Mark Allen Haverty
Is It Over Yet?
  Daisuke Matsuza -- Fantasy Baseball
Dice-K did his job - the bullpen, not so much.

From close game to blowout to back to close game to blowout again by the end – it was a game to give Red Sox fans a heart attack. Fortunately, most of us made it out alive, and the Sox are now up 3-0 and one game away from their second World Series victory in four years after going 86 years without a World Series victory.

Of course, any historian of the game could have told you that the turn of the century always means good things for the Red Sox. The bad news is that, if history repeats itself, this ownership group will sell out to one that cannot really afford the team, and they will sell their top draft pick seven years from now to the Yankees, who will convert him from a pitcher to a hitter and have him hit 700 or so home runs. But, I digress…

The Rockies really needed a win last night, and tonight as a result of that loss is do or die. The Rockies send Aaron Cook to the mound for the first time in over two months, with his last start having come back on August 10. Cook was the only starter to have lost to the Red Sox in their three game series back in June in the Fens, but it was far from his fault, as he held the Sox to seven hits, two walks, and two earned runs in 7 1/3 innings, and he struck out four. Cook is a vastly superior pitcher on the road though, as his home ERA in 12 starts was 5.31, compared with 3.07 on the road. Cook is an extreme groundball pitcher, so if you see a few flyballs early, even if outs, then Cook will be in trouble.

The Red Sox counter with their feel-good story of the year, Jon Lester, who has gone from being a top prospect to a cancer patient to being the Game Four starter. If that does not sound like a Disney sports movie, nothing does. While Lester was better at home than away, the splits were not extreme, with a 4.30 ERA at home and 4.73 on the road. Either way, the Sox are likely to go their pen early here. Only six of Lester’s eleven starts were of at least six innings in length. That of course could mean problems, as the bullpen was less than spectacular last night. We warned that Hideki Okajima was being overused, and that caught up with him last night with a three run shot served up to Matt Holliday. Javier Lopez was inept in his stint, allowing two hits without retiring a batter, and Mike Timlin did not get the job done. Other than Manny Delcarmen and Jonathan Papelbon, there really is no one here that the Red Sox can trust. Will they go with Kyle Snyder if they have to? Snyder did have a solid season for the Sox, but he struggled significantly as the season wore on, with an ERA of 2.81 before the break and 5.24 after the break. Further, in 12 road appearances before the break, his ERA was 2.31, compared to 6.55 in ten road appearances after the break. Snyder has yet to make a postseason appearance, and those numbers make me wonder how he even made the postseason roster.

If the Rockies win tonight, the Red Sox face a big question for Game Five – does David Ortiz sit? Yes, Jeff Francis was emasculated by the Red Sox in Game One, but he is a far better pitcher than he looked like in that game, and he is a very tough lefty. Will the Sox go with Kevin Youkilis at first, Mike Lowell at third, and Big Papi on the pine? They just might have to, and that in and of itself is a win for the Rockies. Of course, they have to get there first. We think they will – they showed that they can take advantage of the Red Sox’ pen, and that pen will be taxed today. To get that win though, they need to fix Brad Hawpe, as he is killing the Rockies right now, with eight strikeouts in ten chances. If he doesn’t hit, the Rockies won’t win, weak Red Sox pen or not.

Tomorrow, we will be back here win or lose – either to look more closely at the Game Five pitchers, or to write the postmortem on the season. See you then.

Questions and comments may be sent to markhaverty@sportsgrumblings.com



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