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Offseason Grumblings -- November 4, 2007
Offseason Grumblings -- November 4, 2007
By Mark Allen Haverty | Published  11/4/2007 | MLB Fantasy Grumblings - (2007)
Mark Allen Haverty
Senior Editor Mark Haverty's work has regularly appears in such places as FOX Sports and Sporting News, where Mark is one of TSN's lead minor league analysts. Mark has also been featured in multiple print publications and as a featured guest on multiple radio shows.  

View all articles by Mark Allen Haverty
The Arizona Fall League
  Hayden Penn -- Fantasy Baseball
Hayden Penn's stock continues to drop in the Arizona Fall League.

Yesterday, we looked at some of the players from the Hawaii Winter Baseball league, and today we are going from the islands to the desert to check out the prospects of the Arizona Fall League to give you some players of note there to be watching.

Matt LaPorta was a surprise pick by the Brewers due to the position he played – first base – being the least likely need position in the system thanks to MVP candidate Prince Fielder. The 2007 first rounder is leading the league in RBI right now, with 16 in 21 games, and he is tied for the league lead in home runs with four. His batting average has suffered though, as he is hitting only .247 right now. Over his last ten games, LaPorta is hitting only .194, with only four RBI. LaPorta finished the season in the South Atlantic League, and he could return there to open the 2008 season. The Brewers will not rush LaPorta, and he should not be on the radar to reach the bigs until mid- to late-2009 at the earliest and 2010 might be more realistic.

The Blue Jays’ system has serious issues, with Travis Snider sticking out as one of the few quality prospects that they possess. After hitting .313 with 16 homers and 93 RBI in the Midwest League, Snider is currently hitting .359 with two home runs and eight RBI in seventeen games for the Scottsdale Scorpions. He does have some strikeout issues, as he has whiffed 18 times in 64 at-bats. Snider is going to be pushed quickly do to the dearth of talent in this system, and he should be in Double-A by season’s end.

Dusty Hughes is a control pitcher whose control numbers let him down this year in the Texas League. Hughes was 6-2 with a 3.08 ERA in 25 appearances, 16 as a starter, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio was just 77:45 in 108 innings. His numbers have been much better in the AFL though, as he has struck out eleven and walked just two in fifteen innings, and he is currently 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA after four appearances. The Royals desperately need starting pitching at the big league level, so look for Hughes to stick with starting in 2008. Hughes should be up in Triple-A, with an appearance sometime during the season in the majors.

Hayden Penn had been one of the better pitching prospects in the game, but things just have not gone right for Penn over the last two seasons. This year, elbow problems did not help, and he made just 10 starts between three levels. Now out in the Arizona Fall League, Penn is not doing anything to get us reconsidering him as a top prospect, as his ERA is a robust 8.78, and he has allowed runs in four of his five starts. Saying he needs to throw a shutout on a regular basis might sound like a lot, but one needs to keep in mind that AFL starts are not traditional starts – if a pitcher is out there for more than four innings, it is an aberration. Penn allowed four runs in one inning in his first start, four runs (three earned) in two innings in his second, and two runs in three innings in his third. Opposing batters are also hitting .316 against him. At this point, seeing Penn in the bigs at all in 2008 would be a stretch.

A speedster is only good if he gets on base consistently, and too many in the minors have speed and little else. That is not the case with the Yankees’ Brett Gardner, who hit .281 with a .369 OBP and 39 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A this year. Through 18 games in the AFL, Gardner has been spectacular, with a .354 batting average, a .416 OBP, seventeen runs scored, and thirteen stolen bases in fourteen attempts. Gardner should be back in Triple-A to open the season, and he might get a call at some point during the season.

Lastly, Sam Fuld is not a great prospect having spent this season at Double-A at the age of 25 (he turns 26 at the end of this month), but it would be hard not to be impressed with the numbers he is putting up so far in the Arizona Fall League. Through 21 games, Fuld is hitting .380 with three home runs, twelve RBI, and seventeen runs scored in 79 at-bats, and he leads the league in on-base percentage at .473. Fuld has also successfully stolen nine bases in ten attempts. Fuld will likely move up to Triple-A to open the season, and he could be up at some point in 2008 as a fourth outfielder.

That wraps up our look here at the AFL, but quite a few of the names from the AFL and the Hawaii Winter League will be popping up this week in our look at the top prospects in each system. Tomorrow, we kick things off with the year in review for the Orioles, and the top ten prospects for the Orioles follow that on Tuesday. See you then.



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