Frank Thomas - aging slugger with no glove best suited to be a DH. Yep, that makes him Blue Jay material.

The Blue Jays can pretty much be penciled in to finish third in the AL East every year. This year was no exception. They had a few key injuries and players whose performances were a little below expectation, but they managed to still finish in third place in one of the toughest divisions in professional sports. Admittedly, they finished one place lower than last year, but considering the Red Sox and Yankees this year that is nothing to be concerned with; having to stay in their division is something to be concerned with.

What Went Right?

Calling Alex Rios a breakout offensive star would be a slight exaggeration, but he certainly bears watching to see if his power can increase anymore. He finished with 24 homers, 17 stolen bases, 114 runs, and 85 RBI. Add in 7 triples and 43 doubles and he had a more-than-respectable .498 slugging percentage. This year he passed Vernon Wells as the team’s offensive leader.

Making even more offensive gains than Rios did this year was Aaron Hill. Hill had 6 homers and 28 doubles in 2006. This year he increased them to 17 home runs and a team-leading 47 doubles. Batting mostly seventh, he scored 87 runs and had 78 RBI.

Frank Thomas held up well after his comeback year of 2006. Thomas had over 500 at-bats for only the fourth time in the last eight years. His 26 homers and 95 RBI were respectable, though a long way from the 39 and 114 from the previous year.

The pitching staff was not the flashiest in the AL; however, anchored by a solid bullpen, they had the second best ERA. With B.J. Ryan going out for the season after only five appearances, Jeremy Accardo filled in admirably as a closer. He had 30 saves and a team-leading ERA of 2.14. He also had a WHIP of 1.11 and 57 strikeouts in 67 1/3 innings. In addition, to fulfill contractual obligations with the Jays, I will also mention that Scott Downs, Casey Janssen, and Brian Wolfe all pitched over 45 innings with earned run averages under 3.00.

The starters had 91 quality starts led by Roy Halladay with 21. Young pitchers Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, and Jesse Litsch combined for 45 out of 72 starts and had earned run averages right around 4.00. The performances of these pitchers next year could be one of the keys to the team’s success, particularly if A.J. Burnett gets traded this offseason as they seem willing to do.

What Went Wrong?

In 2007, Matt Stairs led the team in OPS. That sounds like a good thing… for him. For the Blue Jays, who have Troy Glaus, Vernon Wells, Frank Thomas, and Alex Rios, that is not how you built the offense, even if his OPS was .917. (He was not batting title qualified, with only 357 at-bats, but that is still a significant number). Stairs was third on the team with 21 homers, which is good for him, and good for a part-timer, but again a bad sign overall for the rest of the team.

In his second year in Toronto, Lyle Overbay dropped to a .240 batting average and only 10 homers with huge decreases in runs and RBI, Troy Glaus hit only 20 home runs and had his lowest slugging percentage since 2003, and both finished the season injured. B.J. Ryan missed virtually the whole season to injury. Reed Johnson missed nearly three months due to injury and was offensively ineffective when he was playing – his OPS was .244 points lower than in 2006.

For $13 million, A.J. Burnett needs to throw 200 innings. Admittedly, he has only pitched more games and innings three times in the last seven years, but he had even less last year. For this kind of money, he needs to pitch to win. The last two years he was 10-8 each year – this is not much better of a winning percentage than the team.

Though the ceiling is not as high, more like comparing a house ceiling to the dome of Rogers Centre, they also had disappointing years from starting pitchers Josh Towers, Tomo Ohka, and Gustavo Chacin (also, lost most of the year to injury).

The Moves They Made

Recently, the Blue Jays have seemed to have a fascination with stocking the team with mediocre corner infielder/designated hitters. Signing Matt Stairs last November seemed to fall into this category; however, after completing consecutive 13 home run seasons, he posted his best numbers since 2003. He has been re-signed to a two-year deal.

The Blue Jays also signed Frank Thomas in the offseason and obviously paid similar dividends, though his numbers were down from his comeback year. The Blue Jays have Thomas signed for another year with an option in 2009.

Most of the rest of their moves involved signing players who they later dropped (Ohka, Royce Clayton, Jason Smith, Victor Zambrano, and John Thomson are examples).

In addition to the young pitchers, also making contributions were two hitters brought up from the system, Adam Lind and Curtis Thigpen. Lind hit .238 in 290 at-bats with 11 home runs, 46 RBI, and 34 runs scored. Thigpen finished the season as the backup catcher, and will enter the 2008 season as one of the top prospects in a rather weak Blue Jays system. In 47 at-bats, Thigpen hit .238 with no homers, 11 RBI, and 13 runs scored, but he was much better in Triple-A, where he had hit .285 with three home runs, 20 RBI, and 20 runs scored in 179 at-bats.

The Moves They Did Not Make (But Should Have)

The Blue Jays ended April in second place in the division, and were third at the end of May. It was hard to give up on the season at this point, so they cannot be faulted in not dealing Troy Glaus, who would have been their major trading chip (and with one year left on his contract, still is). Since much of their lack of success this year was due to injuries and a few players performing below expectation, it was also hard to consider trying to trade for pieces that could vault them ahead of the Yankees.

Where Now?

Well, last I looked they are still in one of the worst places to be in professional sports – in the same division as the Red Sox and Yankees. It is possible to conceive of beating one of them in any given year – it happened in 2006. As a natural Sox fan, I do not see them, or anyone else, beating the Sox for the division title next year, but you never can tell.

With the slight interest in salaries both Yankees and Sox are taking now, an injury or two could open them up to .500 seasons if they have underperformers at key positions, too. The Jays offense certainly has the potential to be much better this year. With more innings from B.J. Ryan and A.J. Burnett and slight improvements in their younger pitchers, they could be a force on the mound.

One thing is for sure, and that is that help is not coming from within. As you will see tomorrow in their Farm Report, the Blue Jays have a system they should be embarrassed about, as it is easily the worst in the league, if not all the game. With J.P. Ricciardi trying his best to mimic the Moneyball strategy in Toronto, the result has been low-upside draft picks that have left the Blue Jays only one player on their top ten list that could have legitimately made the lists of the Red Sox, Yankees, or Rays, and even the long-struggling Orioles seem on a better path. Third place is a likely finish in 2008 due to the money spent at the major league level, but the Rays and possibly even the Orioles could surpass them as soon as 2009, and when they do it will be for a while.