Beware the career season…

Each year, all us so called "experts" pull out our crystal ball and predict which players will be total flops for the upcoming year. Of course, there is some luck involved here, but there is also quite a bit of homework that is required to really ferret out those players who will offer substantially less production during the season then they will cost you on draft day. So this article will attempt to address those players you might want to be careful of selecting on draft day.

One note before I get to the players. I'm NOT saying that all the players on this list will stink like a fish fillet placed under your buddies mattress for three weeks (ah, those college days). I'm simply saying that each player listed will likely see his performance on the field not end up being worthy of the draft day cost it will take to acquire his services. Sure the guy might hit .270 with 25 HRs, a fine season no doubt, but if you paid for .300-35 on draft day you certainly aren't going to be happy with that type of production. So, as always, I'm taking the path less traveled and choosing some big-name players here to single out as possible letdowns in 2007. I could end up being wrong of course, but the bottom line is that this list includes the hitters that I would avoid on draft day since they will, simply put, be too expensive based on the return you will likely receive.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Joe Crede, 3B, CWS (.283-30-94-76-0 in 544 ABs)

Why is a guy who is coming off a career best season on this list? Well I just wrote the words "career best." Crede certainly put it all together last year but it was the gap between his previously established level and what he did in 2006 that is so disconcerting. Prior to 2006 here are his career best numbers: .261-22-75-68. Now it is certainly possible that his talent finally fully flowered last year, but even so, were his numbers really that great? His 30 HRs were 4th at the position, but his 94 RBIs placed him 10th while his 76 runs were tied for 17th. Despite the rise in batting average he had his worst walk rate of his career though his Ks did go down for the third straight year (down to just 58). Crede's average also regressed to .270 in the second half, he will likely hit no higher than 6th in the Sox lineup, and throw in the fact that he has had back issues the past few years, and Crede becomes a slightly dicey pick. He should still put up decent numbers but make sure you don't grab him too early expecting him to build on 2006, it likely won't happen.

Alex Gordon, 3B, KC (.325-29-101-111-22 in 486 ABs)

What is the golden boy doing on this list? Gordon is the perfect example of someone who will produce solid numbers if given playing time, though how much PT he will get is still up in the air (he could end up starting the season in the minors). In time, Gordon will undoubtedly be one of the top-10 third basemen in baseball, but is that season this year even after his minor league exploits last year? According to MockDraftCentral.com, Gordon is, on average, the 18th 3B selected in a mixed league scenario (5x5). That sounds pretty fair until you look further down the list and see Morgan Ensberg, Hank Blalock and Edwin Encarnacion all listed after Gordon. I would be willing to bet that all three of those hitters outperform Gordon this year, and if I can grab Blalock 20 picks later, I wouldn't hesitate to pass on Gordon. With a high cost on draft day, combined with his uncertain playing time and the fact that he has all of zero ML ABs, Gordon should fall farther than he is.

Raul Ibanez, OF, SEA (.289-33-123-103-2 in 626 ABs)

Which LF led the position in RBIs last year? That's right, it was Ibanez with his career best number of 123 (he has only one other 100 RBI season in his career). Ibanez has long been a fantasy staple as the guy you draft late after he has been overlooked by others. Raul then goes out and proceeds to post solid numbers such as 89 or more RBIs in four of the past five seasons with a batting average of at least .280 every year. The problem is that his 2006 was too good as he set career-highs in HR (his previous best was 24), RBI (previous best 103), Runs (previous best 95) and in a negative light, Ks (his 115 total was 16 more than his previous worst). Ibanez has also seen his contact rate decline for the past three seasons, so at age 34 are his skills starting to decline despite last year's huge numbers? From 2002-05, Ibanez produced an average season of .292-20-86-81-6, numbers that he bettered with emphasis last year. Ibanez can be counted on to provide solid numbers once again, but with the cat out of the hat, his cost will likely be too high on draft day when his numbers regress back to his established levels.

Cory Patterson, OF, BAL (.276-16-53-75-45 in 463 ABs)

To show you how things change, last year Patterson was my pick as the top sleeper amongst OFs, a call that turned out to be dead-on. This year, I'm switching course. Patterson is an example of a hitter who is more valuable in fantasy than in real life. Corey should continue to post good numbers in the steals category, but realize that because of his horrid .297 career OBP (it was .314 last year), he needs to keep his SB% very high in order to put up big steals totals because he simply doesn't get on base enough (last year he was caught only 9 times). Patterson basically attempted a steal 50% of the time he reached first base, whereas a player such as Juan Pierre only ran about 40% of the time he reached base. Patterson is also a terrible hitter against LHP, .207 last year and .229 for his career, so there is a very real chance he will find himself in a platoon situation. Also don't forget that this guy hit .215 in 451 ABs in 2005 before last year's breakout. Patterson will still provide value in '07, but someone will likely overpay for the 45 SBs, especially considering he has only one other 30+ steal season in the previous four years.

Jorge Posada, C, NYY (.277-23-93-65-3)

You have to go all the way back to 1999 to find a season where Posada didn't perform like a top-5 pick at C, and 2006 was no exception. After seeing his HR, RBI, Runs and AVG totals fall in 2004 and 2005 from his career best season of 2003, Posada experienced a rebirth last year. Basically, Posada is pretty much a lock for around .270-20-80, at least he has been the past seven years. And that is part of the problem. Posada will be 35 this season, an age well past the point where all C's not name Pudge Rodriguez have seen their offense fall. Worse yet, over the past seven years Posada has caught at least 131 games every year, and all that squatting is bound to catch up to a guy. Posada also hit only 3 HRs in 137 ABs against LHP last year while posting a poor .728 OPS (his career mark vs. lefties is .879). More so than anyone else on this list, this call is a gut-feeling more than a verifiable opinion, but history is certainly against this guy continuing to do what he has done.

Frank Thomas, DH, TOR (.270-39-114-77-0 in 466 ABs)

This is a pretty obvious call, but Frank has been getting played up so much in fantasy circles that it seemed like I should address the big fella. Yes, he was very good last year. In fact, in every season of his career in which he has totaled at least 450 ABs he has managed to hit at least 24 HRs with 92 RBIs, except for the 1999 season. But the problems are many with Thomas. First off, he only qualifies at DH, so drafting him early will significantly limit your choices later in the draft. Second, he will be 39-years-old during the year. Third, he has played less than 75 games in two of the past three seasons, and three of the past six. Fourth, for some unknown reason, he chose to take his injury riddled body to a place where he will play half his game on turf, and that certainly doesn't sound like a recipe for success. Fifth, Thomas hasn't hit .300 since 2000 and he hasn't even hit .275 in a season since then. Add that all up and Thomas is certainly a risk on draft day. If you can grab him late by all means give him a look, but targeting him early in the draft could certainly spell disaster if he hits 19 HRs in 300 ABs this year.