Eric Byrnes, OF, ARI
(.267-26-79-82-25 in 562 ABs)
"Captain
America", dubbed such during
his winter ball days while playing in Latin America,
was a waiver wire find in most leagues in 2006 after a horrific 2005 campaign.
Byrnes set career-highs in HRs (26), RBIs (79) and SBs (25) last year, and as a
result he was one of only three players in baseball to go 25/25 in 2006 (Alfonso
Soriano and Jimmy Rollins were the others). However, all that good
was offset by a few troubling events. First, Byrnes hit just .243 over his
final 55 games to continue a career long trend of fading in the second half of
the season (.234 with a .679 OPS after the break compared to a .285/.849 mark
before the mid-summers classic). Second, the guy is just one year removed from
a .226-10-40-49-7 season spent between three teams (Oak, Col, Bal). Third, despite two 20 HR seasons
the past 4-years, Byrnes has really been all over the map with his offensive
production; here is his average season since 2003: .262-17-61-72-15. Certainly
those are solid numbers but they really aren't much better than a Reggie
Sanders type season, and you certainly shouldn't have to spend a top pick
on that should you? And fourth, despite his 25 steal season last year, Byrnes
had only 34 the previous three seasons, or just 11 a season. Be careful here.
Ryan Howard, 1B, PH
(.313-58-149-104-0 in 581 ABs)
I won't go into detail here what
I broke down in tremendous detail last week. If you missed that article, click
here to read why I think that Howard is overrated heading into 2007.
LINK TO MY
ARTICLE: Why Ryan Howard is NOT a Top-10 Fantasy Option
 |
| Phillips broke out in 2006. Bust in 2007 |
Brandon Phillips, 2B, CIN
(.276-17-75-65-25 in 536 ABs)
Phillips
came of out nowhere last year to be a fantasy stud by years end. Besides
stealing 25 bases while only being caught twice, Phillips demolished every
number he put up over his first four seasons at the major league level,
combined. However, warning signs abound. First, after hitting .306 before the
all-star break, Phillips regressed to just a .243 mark after the break
including a .149. average in his last 87 ABs. Second, despite 75 RBIs on the
season, he actually wasn't that good of a run producer. How can I say that?
Well, 17 of those RBIs came in a span of seven games in April meaning he had 58
RBIs in his other 142 games. Third, Phillips hadn't stolen 25 bases in a season
sine 2001 at high-A and AA ball. Fourth, while Phillips did hit 15 HRs at AAA
in 2005, he totaled only 17 HRs in 2003-04, so the power could regress
slightly. Fifth, the guy walked only 35 times in 149 games, so unless he
improves his patience (.324 OBP), there is at least a 50/50 chance that his
numbers will regress in '07. Plus if he struggles, the team could always move Ryan
Freel to the second base spot.
Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA (.292-17-59-119-51
in 633 ABs)
According to MockDraftCentral.com,
Ramirez is, on average, the 5th SS selected in a mixed league
scenario (5x5), a full 11 picks before perennial 200-hit SS Michael Young.
Now I certainly wouldn't agree with that despite the fact that Ramirez joined Jose
Reyes as the only SS in baseball history to hit .290-15-50-100-50 in a
single season last year. And that's the main point; last season was a historic
one for Ramirez, so is it really fair to expect him to repeat it? After hitting
.309 the first two months of the season, Ramirez struggled to hit just .229
over the next two months before rebounding to hit .336 over the final two
months of the season. To take the next step, Ramirez needs to cut down on the
Ks (128), which he started to do over the final 75 games of the season when he
struck out just 51 times. Two other notes. First, Ramirez never hit more than 8
HRs in any previous season in the minors (27 total in 1,536 ABs). Second,
Ramirez never stole more than 36 bases in a season while a minor leaguer (he
had only 99 in 400 career games). He will likely produce across the board, but
not enough to justify a top-40 selection.
David Ross, C, CIN
(.255-21-52-37-0 in 247 AB)
Ross led all catchers who
hit at least 10 HRs in 2006 with 7.09 HRs per 100 plate appearance (Mike
Piazza was second at 5.01). If you do the old "double", and by that I mean
projecting his 247 AB season to a full season's worth by doubling it to 494
ABs, you would get 42 HRs and 104 RBIs. Don't make the mistake of doing that
here. Ross
entered the 2006 season with a .217 average and 19 HR in 424 career major
league ABs. The problem was that those ABs were spread out over four years as
was unable to break into the Dodgers, Pirates or Padres lineups as more than a
spare part. And the reason for caution here is obvious; Ross has never been
this good of a hitter. In fact, he has hit as many as 20 HRs in a season only
once prior to 2006, it was 2003, and he owns just a .259 average as a minor
leaguer (1495 ABs). Considering he has never hit for much power, has always
struggled with his average, and that he will be 30 on opening day, there are
plenty of reasons to expect Ross to fail to live up to last years numbers. Also,
he posted his career best numbers last year despite hitting just .203 over his
final 45 games, though he still hit 9 HRs during that stretch. Don't forget
about Javier Valentin who is also in Cincy and will most certainly eat
into Ross' playing time likely keeping him from a 450 AB season regardless.
Dan Uggla, 2B, FLA (.282-27-90-105-6 in
611 ABs)
Dan Uggla was the type of
late round grab last year that helped his fantasy squads to win the
championship. Uggla hit .290-23-90 in 2003 (high-A) and .297-21-87 in 2005
(AA), so he had some success to be sure. However, Uggla didn't have one single
AB at the AAA level, so little was expected of him at the start of last year. Uggla was
second at the position with 27 HR and he was also second with his 105 runs scored
though the problem was the fact that all of his numbers slowed drastically as
the season wore on. After hitting .307 before the all-star break Uggla managed
to hit just .232 over his final 29 games. Also distressing were his 72 Ks in 75
second half games (he struck out just 51 times in the first half) which led to
a paltry .311 OBP after the mid-summers classic. Uggla should put up decent
numbers this year, but he will likely be drafted long before a "decent" season
will do. The "sophomore jinx" could strike hard here, so be cautious.
Beware the career season…
Ray Flowers,
a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) and the Society for
American Baseball Research (SABR), can be reached with comments and questions
at: rayf@sportsgrumblings.com.
