Riding High in the O.C.
The emergence of rookie Reggie Willits was one of the reasons that the Angels once again were the kings of the West.
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What Went Right?
The Angels made the playoffs for the fourth time in six seasons in 2007 and tied the New York Yankees for the second-best record in baseball. That Chone Figgins finished sixth in batting for the American League is absolutely remarkable and shines through as a case-study on why fantasy owners should not give up on players after a bad month. Through the first 26 games, 25 of which covered the month of May with the other being an April opener, he was hitting .160 in 94 at-bats. That is 21% of his season’s at-bats and he put himself in an enormous hole. He responded by hitting .461 in 115 June at-bats. That is just absurd. And though he shaved over 100 points off that average in July, he was still white-hot with a .351 average in 94 at-bats. He did not come close to slowing down in August and September with .342 and .302, respectively. For those counting at home, he hit .376 from June on. Had Garret Anderson been able to stay healthy, he would have put together his best season since 2003. He only played 108 games and still almost accomplished that feat. He put together a season very comparable to his 2006 despite playing 33 fewer games. Reggie Willits put together a fine rookie campaign showing wonderful plate patience, exceptional bat control and plus speed. Though he was homer-less in 430 at-bats, he was a catalyst at the base of the lineup serving as the proverbial second leadoff hitter. Gary Matthews Jr. could not repeat his masterful walk year of 2006, but was not the complete bust that many predicted he would be when the Angels overpaid him in the winter. He had 64 fewer hits, which lead to a 61-point drop in his batting average, but he had just one fewer home run and seven fewer runs batted in despite 104 fewer at-bats. He bought into the speed game of Los Angeles increasing his steal total to 18 from the 10 in 2006. Casey Kotchman managed to stay healthy and played more games last year (137) than he had the previous seasons combined (114).
Their dynamic 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation performed remarkably well and was part of the Cy Young discussion for much of the season. John Lackey went 19-9 with a 3.01 earned run average, 1.21 WHIP and 179 strikeouts in 224 strong innings of work. His cohort, Kelvim Escobar, displayed some of the league’s nastiest stuff and stayed healthy enough to start 30 games and post an 18-7 record with a 3.40 earned run average, 1.27 WHIP and 160 strikeouts in 195 2/3 innings. Jered Weaver bounced back from a poor April to post four straight solid months from May to August, though he admittedly was not as dominant as his sparkling rookie campaign that saw him go 11-2 with a 2.56 earned run average. In the bullpen, Justin Speier fulfilled the Scot Shields role (as he suffered something of an off-year, at least for him) throwing 50 innings and posting a 2.88 earned run average and a miniscule 0.96 WHIP. Back to Shields for a moment, I do not mean to imply that he bombed the 2007 season, but he raised his earned run average by 0.99 and his WHIP by 0.16. He still struck out a batter per inning in 77 innings while notching an American League best 31 holds (tied with Rafael Betancourt).
What Went Wrong?
Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez was once again completely lights out going 5-2 with 40 saves in 64 games. He struck out 90 in 67 1/3 innings with a 2.81 earned run average. That said, it was his lowest total in three years and he also posted his highest earned run average and WHIP. Wrong is probably not the best word to describe how things went for Rodriguez, but he did blow a career-high six saves in addition to the elevated rates. Rodriguez also continued a four-year downtrend in strikeouts per nine innings.
Rodriguez’ “struggles” absolutely pale in comparison to the colossal failures of Ervin Santana, which was easily the biggest problem for the Angels in the 2007 season. He posted a vomit-inducing 5.76 earned run average up from 4.28 in 2006 and raised his WHIP from 1.23 to 1.55. Check out this line that opposing hitters put together against Santana: .288/.357/.497 with 26 home runs. That’s a top fantasy pick! The oddest thing about Santana’s brutal season was how split up it was. His home numbers in 12 starts were 6-4, 3.27 earned run average, 1.27 WHIP, and seven home runs allowed. Are you ready for the away numbers? How about a 1-10 record with an 8.38 earned run average, 1.84 WHIP, and 19 home runs allowed in 73 innings of work. At 24, Santana came into the season as one of the brightest pitching prospects in the game with many teams inquiring about the availability of his services. His career is by no means over, but his stock has dropped immeasurably.
While Santana’s career is not over, Bartolo Colon’s may in fact be. He has been horrific since he stole the 2005 Cy Young from Johan Santana. He threw just under 100 innings and posted a 6.34 earned run average with a 1.62 WHIP! His 6-8 record is precisely why a win-loss record is absolutely ZERO indication of how well or poorly a pitcher pitched.
Reggie Willits’ 0-fer in the home run category was a microcosm of the power outage in Los Angeles. The team’s 123 home runs were good for 28th in the majors and stunted an otherwise solid offensive attack. Even superstar Vladimir Guerrero was afflicted with just 27 home runs. It was his lowest total since 2003 (25) and he only played 112 games during that season. Even in 2005 when he missed several games, he still mashed 32 home runs. The 2007 total were a career low for seasons in which he played 141 or more games. The outliers were the aforementioned 2003 season, his rookie season of 1997 and his cup of coffee in 1996.
The Moves They Made
No significant moves of consequence were made at the deadline or during the season for the 2007 Angels.
The Moves They Did Not Make (But Should Have)
There is no way that Bartolo Colon should have started as many games as he did and the same can probably be said for Ervin Santana. If the Angels were going to trot Santana out there as much as they did, they should have caught on to the home-road splits and made sure that he was in Anaheim anytime he toed the rubber.
Had they made a push for Mark Teixeira and landed him, he and his power could have been the difference maker for the team. At any rate, they ran into that buzzsaw in the Boston Red Sox, so even that a Big Tex acquisition might be moot.
Where Now?
The Angels are almost always involved in top free agent signings as well as rumors swirling around the biggest trades. This offseason is no different and you can bet that the Angels will be at the forefront of the Hot Stove League this winter. They have already acquired, though somewhat curiously, star center fielder Torii Hunter. When the bulk of Gary Matthews Jr.’s value comes from his defense in centerfield, why get another guy whose primary value lies in exceptional centerfield leather?
After the bombings of Colon and Santana, the Angels moved Orlando Cabrera to the Chicago White Sox for Jon Garland. He is an absolute horse that you can count on for 200+ innings and a mid-4.00’s earned run average. Despite those two blockbuster moves, there is almost no doubt that they will be involved or at least entertain several more moves.
Fantasy Corner
Three Keepers
1. Howkie Kendrick - he is likely gone in either a trade for Miguel Cabrera or Johan Santana, but regardless of where he is in 2008, he is a quickly rising second base option.
2. Nick Adenhart - a fast-rising stud arm with ace material.
3. Jered Weaver - the good Weaver.
Three Sleepers
1. Maicer Izturis - the good Izturis. As in, this one knows what his bat is for.
2. Dallas McPherson - he really was a stud prospect once, honest.
3. Kendry Morales - he really did not flee Cuba to be a bench player, did he?