Each year, all us so called "experts" pull out our crystal ball and predict which players will be total flops for the upcoming year. Of course, there is some luck involved here, but there is also quite a bit of homework that is required to really ferret out those players who will offer substantially less production during the season then they will cost you on draft day. So this article will attempt to address those players you might want to be careful of selecting on draft day.
One note before I get to the pitchers. I'm NOT saying that all the pitchers on this list will suddenly turn into Greg Maddux or Roger Clemens in their primes, but all of the pitchers listed here are capable of far outpacing their cost on draft day, 2007. I could end up being wrong of course, but the bottom line is that this list includes the pitchers that I would target on draft day since they will likely offer significant value.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Josh Beckett, SP, FLA (16-11, 5.01 ERA, 158 K, 1.29 WHIP In 204.2 IP)
First, the bad. Beckett led baseball with 36 HRs allowed. He also posted a career worst ERA of 5.01 (his previous worst was 4.10). Beckett's 1.29 WHIP was his worst since 2003 (1.32) while his K-rate was a career worst (6.95 per 9 IP). Now the good. (1) He won a career best 16 games and should again come close to matching that total with the offense in Boston. (2) Beckett also threw over 200 innings for the first time, ever. (3) He had the best BB/9IP rate of his career (2.92). (4) Beckett allowed 36 HRs on the season after allowing just 30 the previous two years combined. Sure a move to Boston from pitcher friendly Florida won't help, but he actually gave up only 12 HRs at Fenway with 24 coming on the road. Do you really think that he will allow that many again? Beckett is falling way too far in drafts this year, and while he is not the classic "sleeper", his 2007 numbers will likely far outpace his cost on draft day as it looks like he might finally have his blister problems licked.
Boof Bonser, SP, MIN (7-6, 4.22 ERA, 84 K, 1.28 WHIP in 100.1 IP)
Boof Bonser was called-up to the Twins in May of last year, and he was likely only activated in AL Only leagues at the time. Bonser failed to impress over 7 starts and went 2-2 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.46 WHIP including a stretch where he was sent back to the minors. The time on the farm seemed to help as he returned to post really solid numbers down the stretch including going 5-4 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in his last 11 starts. Even better, he was extremely hot over his final six starts going 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.01 WHIP signaling good things to come. Bonser also produced a solid K/9IP rate of 7.5 while putting up an impressive 3.50 K/BB rate. With Brad Radke forced into retirement, and Francisco Liriano out after TJ surgery, the Twins will be counting on Boof to be in their starting rotation and he could deliver a Radke-like line as early as this season.
Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA (12-14, 4.52 ERA, 176 Ks, 1.34 WHIP in 191 IP)
King Felix is the perfect example of the post-hype player. So much was expected of him last year that his season was considered a failure by some even though he posted some tremendous numbers for a 20-year-old. Amongst pitchers 20 or younger since 1900, Felix's 176 Ks were the 12th best ever while his 12 wins were 10th best ever. The Mariners also were very careful to limit his exposure and workload last season and held him to just 191 IP on the season including skipping him a few times in the rotation over the season's final month and a half. Also, Felix showed an in-season improvement with a better ERA and WHIP in the second half of the season (4.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). Remember, players that fail to live up to expectations in their first "big" year often fall too far the next, and Hernandez is a pitcher with as much talent as anyone in the game.
Zack Greinke, SP, KC (1-0, 4.26 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.58 WHIP in 6.2 IP)
Greinke battled his inner demons as he took a leave of absence from baseball to deal with some personal issues in 2006 (the reasons were never made public). The good news is that it had nothing to do with his physical abilities and he seems to have overcome whatever ailed him. He ended up spending almost his entire season at AA where he pitched well gong 8-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with a 8.0 K/9IP rate. Late in the season he was called up to Kansas City and hurled 6.2 innings. You might forget how good he was in the past, so let me remind you. In 2004, Greinke was the first AL pitcher 20-years or younger to throw 140 or more innings with an ERA under 4.00 since 1974. He regressed in 2005 as he led the AL in loses with 17 which will further deflate his value heading into 2007. Don't go for him early, but he is an excellent choice to round out one's pitching staff.
Javier Vazquez, SP, CWS (11-12, 4.84 ERA, 184 Ks, 1.29 WHIP in 202.2 IP)
For the 7th straight season, Vazquez won at least 10 games while racking up 150 Ks, and while those numbers don't seem overly impressive, he is the only pitcher in baseball who has reached those numbers over each of the last seven seasons (read that again for emphasis). While he certainly hasn't had that big fantasy season since 2003 (13-12, 241 K, 3.24 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), he is a solid source of wins and Ks; Javier ranks 10th in baseball with 376 Ks the past two seasons. While his ERA is slightly elevated of late with a 4.40 or higher mark the past three seasons, he did post 3-straight years under 3.95 (2001-03). Vazquez has also posted a 3.25 or better K/BB ratio the past two seasons so the bottom line is that his performance has really been better than the outcome the past couple of seasons. With a bit of luck in '07, he could easily win 15 games with 200 Ks and a 3.90 ERA, excellent numbers from a mid-draft pickup.
Jake Westbrook, SP, CLE (15-10, 4.17 ERA, 109 Ks, 1.43 WHIP in 211.1 IP)
Westbrook won 15 games for the second straight time, and now has at least 14 wins in three straight seasons (only 4 pitchers have done that including teammate Cliff Lee). Westbrook did receive tremendous run support last year with 6.73 runs per 9 IP, the 3rd best mark in the AL, but regardless, he always seems to win games. Westbrook was second in the AL in GB/FB ratio though his H/9IP rate of 10.52 per 9 IP was a 4-year worst leading to a 3-year low in WHIP. However, the sinkerballer does seem to have an upside on draft day which can best be seen by comparing his numbers to another sinkerballer,
Jon Garland: 18-7, 4.51 ERA, 112 Ks, 1.36 WHIP in 211.1 IP
Those two lines are so close that if I removed the win total could you have told the difference? So why is it that according to MockDraftCentral Garland is going with the 224th pick in drafts with Westbrook falling all the way to 337? Westbrook represents a good buy low option for astute owners.
