Tom Gorzelanny, SP, PIT
(2-5, 3.79 ERA, 40 Ks, 1.31 WHIP in 61.2 IP)
Some scouts say that of all
the young arms in Pittsburgh, the best one belongs to this lefty. Gorzelanny
threw 99.2 innings at AAA in 2006 and with his performance (6-5, 2.35 ERA, 0.94
WHIP, 3.48 K/BB ratio) he convinced the Pirates he was ready for the majors.
When Tom was called up to pitch in The Show, he allowed 3 or less ERs in his
final 8 starts. Moreover, over his last six outings he had a 2.43 ERA and a
1.05 WHIP despite a 1-3 record for the lowly Pirates. Tom missed a months worth
of action last year due to a sore elbow, an injury that has dogged him for
years, but the talent is undeniable. Because the Pirates aren't very good,
combined with the fact that he was injured last year and has pitched poorly
this spring, Gorzelanny will likely be off almost everyone's radar on draft
day. Fine tune your equipment and look to grab him in the late rounds.
Rich Hill, SP, CHI (6-7,
4.17 ERA, 90 K, 1.23 WHIP in 99.1 IP)
OK, he is probably on a lot
of sleeper lists this season and rightfully so after his strong finish last
year (play up the fact that he got lit up like the Griswold's Christmas tree
early in the season 0-4 with a 9.53 ERA and 2.07 WHIP). Because of his poor
start last year he was sent to the minors to find himself, and he did that in
spades going 7-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in AAA. When he came back to
Chicago he was a new man going 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP with 79 Ks over
his final 80 IP. Hill was dominating at home (4-2, 2.51 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) and
horrible on the road (2-5, 6.81 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) in 2006, though you might want
to notice that his G/F ratio of 0.60 might spell trouble in Chicago over the
course of a whole year. So while he is a nice pickup, don't go overboard and
think of him as if he will he a top-30 starter this year because he likely
won't be one.
Tim Hudson, SP, ATL
(13-12, 4.86 ERA, 141 Ks, 1.44 WHIP in 218.1 IP)
I recently participated in a
12-team draft where I grabbed Hudson in the 16th round to laughter
and ridicule. Boy, how the mighty have fallen. Since 2003, Hudson's ERA and
WHIP have gone up each season to the point that the numbers were actually below
the major league average last season. Also of concern is a K/BB ratio has been
under 1.80 the past two seasons and it has been three seasons since he has
recorded 6 Ks per 9 IP. There is no arguing that Hudson had the worst season of
his career in 2006, but there are still some reasons for optimism here. First,
Hudson threw 218.1 innings after failing to reach 195 in each of the previous
two seasons. Second, he was able to train, injury free, for the first time in
years this offseason. Third, he is a proud warrior who can be counted on to do
whatever is necessary to rebound from last season terrible effort. And fourth,
there is his track record. Since 2000, Hudson has 108 wins, tied for the 3rd
best mark in baseball, and he is 9th in baseball with a 3.56 ERA in
that time (min. 1000 IP). Grab him late and look for a 15 win, 3.75 ERA season
in 2007.
Brad Lidge, RP, HOU (1-5,
5.28 ERA, 104 Ks, 1.40 WHIP in 75 IP)
Lidge blew 6 saves last
year, that's fewer than Huston Street (11) and J.J Putz (7), and
the same number as Jonathan Papelbon and Todd Jones. Lidge became
only the second pitcher in baseball history to strikeout more than 100 batters
while pitching less than 95 innings in three straight seasons (only three
relievers reached 100 Ks last year; Lidge, Putz and Takashi Saito).
Lidge has always been difficult to hit, his 6.89 H/9IP is 8th best
in baseball over the last three years, and even with last year's struggles he
still limited hitters to .238 batting average in 2006. So why is it that he is
falling so far in drafts this year? Because of his ERA? Despite a poor season
which included career worsts in ERA (more than double his 2.29 mark in 2005)
and WHIP, Lidge still has a 3.07 ERA over the past three seasons while earning
a 13.63 K/9IP over that time (the best number for pitchers with over 200 IP).
I'm betting he rebounds in ERA and WHIP while providing a boatload of saves (74
the past two years are the 7th highest total in baseball), and Ks
once again.
Scott Olsen, SP, FLA
(12-10, 4.04 ERA, 166 Ks, 1.30 WHIP in 180.2 IP)
Olsen
was overshadowed by other "big" name pitchers in Florida last year but his
talent is immense. Olsen was 7th in the NL with a 8.27 K/9IP ratio
in 2006 and his 2.21 K/BB ratio was solid for a hard throwing rookie (2.0 or
better is where you want a pitchers mark to be). Olsen used his stuff to
dominate LH hitters holding them to a .178 batting average, the third best mark
in the NL. Over the first 201 innings of his career, Olsen has 13 wins and 187
Ks, numbers that only one left-hander in baseball matched in 2006 (Johan
Santana).
Olsen can be a great source of Ks and likely will be available long after his
potential merits he should be.
Mark Prior, SP, CHI (1-6,
7.21 ERA, 38 K, 1.69 WHIP in 43.2 IP)
This is purely a value call.
Prior has been terrible thus far in spring training, though the good news is
that he has been throwing and hasn't had any setbacks after deciding against
surgery on his shoulder this past offseason. The Cubs aren't expecting him to
be much more than their 5th starter, and because of his terrible
performance of late he is slipping way down to the late rounds of most drafts.
Prior's career numbers include a 3.51 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 10.37 K/9IP, and with
health there is every reason to believe that he could approach those numbers
this season. Coming off the worst season of his life, Prior could pitch 33
innings or challenge for the Cy Young, which will make him an intriguing target
on draft day at the right price.
Ray Flowers,
a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) and the Society for
American Baseball Research (SABR), can be reached with comments and questions
at: rayf@sportsgrumblings.com.
