Homer Bailey made his debut in 2007, and there is plenty more in the pipeline.

What Went Right

In 298 at-bats (90 games), Josh Hamilton put up some staggering statistics, accruing 87 hits, 19 home runs, 47 runs batted in, 52 runs, batting .292, with a slugging percentage of .554. When projecting this impressive young center fielder over a full season, he could produce 30+ home runs, 90 runs, and 80 runs batted in. Josh should play a big part in the resurgence of the Cincinnati Reds.

Considering the state of the team, Aaron Harang was clearly a bright spot, racking up 16 wins in what equates to 22% of the teams wins. With 218 strikeouts on the season, Aaron is clearly the anchor of what hopes to be a stronger starting rotation.

Although Homer Bailey fought a hamstring injury most of the season, he has shown that he can and will pitch in the major leagues for a long time coming. The question is whether he is able to have an immediate impact or whether he opens the door for other young pitchers such as Bobby Livingston or minor league prospects like Johnny Cueto.

Another bright spot in what was overall a disappointing season, Brandon Phillips exhibited all-star quality statistics at second base, posting career highs in runs (107), runs batted in (94), and home runs (30). As long as this is not a “one-year fluke”, Phillips can be an integral part in the resuscitation of the organization.

What Went Wrong

We start with the fall of the Bronson Arroyo. After his amazing start to his Reds career, it appears that the “chip on his shoulder” over the trade from Boston for now-Washington Nationals outfielder Wily Mo Pena and unfamiliarity to the National League hitters has cooled off. Bronson did however have a few starts towards the end of the season that appeared as though he pulled it together. Overall, it was a disappointing sophomore stint in Cincinnati.

For what seems like the umpteenth season, the Cincinnati Reds as a whole have the plate presence of a rookie taking his first at-bat. The team amassed an amazing 1,061 strikeouts while only accruing only 515 walks (of which, 52 were intentional (10%)). Admittedly, there is plenty of youth on the team, which lends itself to such a high strikeout total, but you need to draw the line somewhere and it starts with the hitting coach, Brook Jacoby. If this team is going to succeed in this coming season, they need to stop swinging for the fences and start manufacturing more runs to compete within their division and the National League.

Lastly, we focus on the bullpen and the lack of execution throughout the year. This is not to say that the starting pitching with a combined ERA of 4.86 does not deserve their fair share of blame. However, the bullpen has shown that a “hit or miss” scenario would be a welcome analogy to the actual performance it displayed all season. David Weathers is a great relief pitcher but a closer he is not. There is some hope as Todd Coffey has committed himself to increase his performance on the mound and decrease his girth around the belt, as well as the young and talented Jared Burton who posted a 4-2 record with a team best 2.51 ERA. If Jared can increase his strikeouts (36 in 2007) and minimize his base on balls (22 in 2007), he will make for a fine addition to a revitalized bullpen.

The Moves They Made

One of the biggest surprises came from the signing of free agent Shortstop Alex Gonzalez. Gonzalez, returning to the National League, seems to have picked up where he left off when he left the Florida Marlins and joined the Boston Red Sox. His defense lends itself to a promising future for a team, as it is a large component of any National League team trying to make a run for the playoffs. Additionally, it appears that his power has returned. He will never be a guy that you expect to put up serious statistics in the categories of base on balls and on base percentage, but you can certainly count on him giving you gold glove performance on the field with some mild “pop” and the occasional timely hit at the plate.

The Reds made their first big move this off-season, strengthening the bullpen by signing eight-year veteran reliever Francisco Cordero. Francisco and the Reds have reached a preliminarily agreement to the tune of a four-year, $46M contract. This hard throwing right-hander has accrued 177 saves in his career, 44 of which came last year as the Milwaukee Brewers’ closer. At 32 years of age, there is the concern of wear and tear, but with the bullpen so weak and the free agent pool so shallow, Cordero was one of the only “safe” bets worth sinking some money in to.

The Moves They Did Not Make (But Should Have)

As the hot stove continues to heat up, it appears that the Cincinnati Reds are among the most likely teams to complete a trade for outstanding Orioles starting pitcher Érik Bédard. The Baltimore Orioles are seeking the Cincinnati’s top minor league prospect, outfielder Jay Bruce. However, like the Red Sox with top prospect Jacoby Ellsbury and the Yankees with top prospect Phil Hughes, the Reds will try to do everything in their power to land the “pitcher of their dreams” without surrendering what appears to be a centerpiece of the franchise’s future. If they could, they would rather include Homer Bailey and Josh Hamilton and turn to Bruce and minor league pitching prospect Johnny Cueto to ring in the 2008 season.

Although I agree that both Bruce and Cueto have higher “ceilings”, for the Reds to be in the predicament that they are today, having as their largest ticket draw coming from an aging star (Ken Griffey Jr.) and a player that will not likely be with the organization after the 2008 season (Adam Dunn), I believe that they need to act and act quickly if they want to keep the fans interested. To add Érik Bédard to the starting rotation that will likely feature Aaron Harang, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, and Matt Belisle with the one-two punch at the end of the game with David Weathers and newly acquired closer Francisco Cordero, should make this a top priority for the Reds’ front office. Now is not the time to stop and “smell the roses” but instead to act swiftly and deftly, offering something that will take the Orioles breath away and secure them a second ace that is young enough to draw fans for many years to come.

Where Now?

I believe that now is also the time to shop and even trade away Adam Dunn. He has impressive numbers by the end of the year, but by watching his statistical output day-by-day, he does not meet the consistency that a team like Cincinnati needs to be their leader, not on a team with plenty of youth and poor plate decisions. Dunn’s contract is not something that, through proper marketing, would not be palatable to many teams in need of a player with his power and production. I am sure that Baltimore, who has shown through some very high-priced (even over-priced) acquisitions in recent history, would not consider. With the age of Griffey and the strikeouts of Dunn, this team is destined to match the mediocrity that the team has produced over the past five seasons, winning a mere 47% of the time.

The Reds need to shed themselves of the “home run or strikeout” stigma that most associate with the organization, the focus should be on ridding themselves of their more aging players, breaking their motto of not rushing prospects to the big leagues and get the future started today. If this organization wants to become successful, they need to play the 2008 season as a chess player would, sacrificing some pawns early on to put themselves in a position for success several moves later.

They need to do all that they can to get Bedard out of Baltimore and into a Reds uniform. If it means surrendering one top-tier prospect, a few younger arms in the minors, and possibly some higher contracts to loosen the payroll, then that is what must be done. They simply have to move forward get these kids into spring training and really see what they have to work with.

Can Joey Votto replace Scott Hatteberg?

Can Johnny Cueto cut it in the “Bigs”?

If Jay Bruce is that prized a prospect, then why not bring him up, put in the outfield with Hamilton and Griffey and move Dunn in a package deal with either Homer Bailey or Cueto?

Lastly, they still need some serious upgrades in the bullpen. With the quality all but gone from the free agent market, it may be time to look to the pitchers on the rebound. There are a few pitchers who are just now entering either their second or third year out from a significant injury but could have an impact on this coming years’ team. The first is Octavio Dotel. Dotel had a poor showing in Atlanta, but in 2007, which pitcher really did much better? Another alternative is to try and convince Bob Wickman to a deal, using him as a stop gap between the starter and the setup man, likely David Weathers. Wickman has shown that as long as you do not rely on him to be your closer, can be extremely valuable.

If this organization can remove themselves of some dead weight on their roster/payroll, move some of the high profile players that are not meeting the organizations’ needs as a leaders, and continue to invest in their pitching staff, as well as “on the job” training for their youth, they very well could be a team to discuss as a wild card contender in 2008.

Fantasy Corner

Three Keepers

Aaron Harang: With 16 wins on a team that is bound to improve in the bullpen at the very least, it is simple to look to Harang to continue his strikeout trend, amassing significant fantasy points for any who hold onto him.

Adam Dunn: Regardless that he is streaky and strikes out a lot, with over 100 RBI, 90 runs, 40 home runs, and 100 walks, he is always worth keeping, if for nothing else, than to trade when he is hot and meet needs in areas that your team is the weakest.

Brandon Phillips: Quickly rising to an elite status among second baseman, Phillips should continue to produce both power and points at the plate.

Three Sleepers

Josh Hamilton: Anyone that can push 19 home rums in 298 games and have a .292 batting average is worth adding to your roster especially when he had a shaky start on a team that saw little to no publicity. Here is a player that you can easily grab late in the draft and have a “Miguel Cabrera” type, second year splash in the fantasy world.

Jay Bruce: The organization is not high on this kid for the wrong reasons and with the frailty of Griffey and the injuries racking up on Ryan Freel, it is only a matter of time before he is called up and making waves on the fantasy wire. He is a great grab in keeper leagues and deep drafts with 12 or more teams.

Homer Bailey: Due to a hamstring injury, the fantasy community essentially turned blue, holding their breath for this kid to finally show what he could do. Homer’s physical downfall could very well be one the biggest assets to you heading into the 2008 season. Most fantasy managers either do not pay close enough attention to the reasons or simply shut the fantasy baseball section of their brain during the off-season and simply rely on magazines and the previous year’s statistics to determine where and when to draft.