Omar's Ten Little Chips...
Fernando Martinez - a toolsy, Latino stud, in the classic Omar Minaya mold.
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Omar Minaya has problems with prospects. As far as Minaya is concerned, every year is a “win-now” year. He showed that proclivity in Montreal, where he routinely traded prospects in an attempt to win now, although then one could have blamed the urgency on the lack of a future for the Expos. With the Mets, though, it is more likely due to his potential lack of a future – after all, if one does not win in New York, one does not hold a job for one.
That is not to say that the Mets do not have talent in the system, as they certainly do, but the question is how likely are they to stay in the system. If Minaya can trade them, he will, and we continue to hear rumors that Johan Santana is still a possibility, one that would gut the system.
The point here is – the Mets do not assemble a talent pool; they assemble trade chips.
1. Fernando Martinez, Outfield
Despite his incessant willingness to trade his prospects, Minaya does have a knack for finding them, and his keen scouting skills netted the Rangers Juan Gonzalez and Sammy Sosa, so his résumé is quite sound. Martinez is the type of player Minaya loves – a young Latin player with tons of tools. The Mets have pushed Martinez aggressively by the Mets, and he played the 2007 season in Double-A before his 18th birthday. His numbers there would have been respectable for someone older – .271 batting average, four home runs, 21 RBI, 32 runs, and three stolen bases in 236 at-bats – and they look brilliant when considering his age. With Lastings Milledge no longer in the picture, here is your center fielder of the future.
2. Deolis Guerra, Starting Pitcher
The pitching version of Martinez – a Latin stud pushed well past where one might expect for his age. Guerra turned 18 this past April, and he was already in the Florida State League. There, Guerra would go 2-6 with a 4.01 ERA, with 66 strikeouts and 25 walks in 89 2/3 innings. Guerra did lose some time to shoulder tendonitis, so the Mets might want to be cautious here, but he is most definitely one to have on your radar.
3. Carlos Gomez, Outfield
Gomez struggled in his time in the majors, but he is far better than he showed in his short time in that stint. In 36 games in Triple-A in 2007, Gomez hit .286 with two home runs, 13 RBI, 24 runs scored, and 17 stolen bases, and this follows a season where he hit .281 with seven home runs, 48 RBI, 53 runs, and 41 stolen bases in 120 games at Double-A. That is the real Gomez, and what one should see out of him when he receives his next shot at life in the bigs.
4. Kevin Mulvey, Starting Pitcher
A 2006 second-rounder, Mulvey would spend the majority of the season (all but one start) in Double-A Binghamton, where he was 11-10 with a 3.32 ERA in 26 starts. Over 151 2/3 innings, Mulvey struck out 110 and walked just 43, and he also got in a one-game cup of coffee in Triple-A, where he pitched six shutout innings. Mulvey should return to New Orleans this year, but he should be in the majors at some point in 2008.
5. Jonathan Niese, Starting Pitcher
A 2005 seventh round selection, the 20-year-old Niese (who turned 21 on October 27, 2007) was 11-7 with a 4.29 ERA in 27 starts with St. Lucie in the Florida State League. Over 134 1/3 innings, Niese would show excellent control, as he struck out 110 and walked only 31. Look for the lefty Niese to open 2008 in Double-A.
6. Brant Rustich, Starting Pitcher
Rustich started out in the Appalachian League after the Mets drafted him in 2007, and he was 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA in five appearances, two as a starter. In 10 1/3 innings, Rustich struck out ten and walked just one. Moved up to the New York/Penn League, Rustich would be used strictly as a reliever, and he was 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA in ten appearances, with eleven strikeouts and only one walk in 12 2/3 innings. Rustich was not done, as he would head out to Hawaii, where his numbers would suffer a little, but one should take into account that he had been pitching all year between college and the pros, so a little decline is no reason to worry. One thing that did not suffer was his strikeout rate, as he struck out 17 in 17 innings. The Mets envision Rustich as a starter long term, and he could go back to this season, or they could use him as a reliever to get him to the majors quicker, in the Joba Chamberlain mode. Either way, he should make his big league debut by 2009, with 2008 a possibility.
7. Phil Humber, Starting Pitcher
We have been hearing about the Mets’ first rounder from 2004 for a while now, and he looks ready to make an impact in the bigs finally after a solid season in Triple-A New Orleans. Over 25 starts, Humber was 11-9 with a 4.27 ERA, with 120 strikeouts and 44 walks in 139 innings. Humber does not look like a front-of-the-rotation starter anymore, but he should be a solid middle- to back-of-the-rotation starter.
8. Scott Moviel, Starting Pitcher
Coming in at 6-11 and almost 250 pounds, Moviel is an intimidating presence on the mound. The scariest part of all that is he just barely turned 19 in October, so he might still get bigger. On the mound, Moviel was 0-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 12 starts in the Gulf Coast League, striking out 37 and walking only 11 in 40 innings. Just the size alone should have one salivating, but hold the drool a little, as he is not likely to see the bigs until the early part of the next decade.
9. Nathan Vineyard, Starting Pitcher
Another pitcher selected in 2007 by the Mets, Vineyard had his issues early on in the Gulf Coast League, but he would settle down to finish 0-3 with a 5.27 ERA in nine appearances, seven as a starter. Over 27 1/3 innings, Vineyard struck out 33 and walked just nine. Vineyard gave up the majority of his runs in his third and fourth starts, and he posted a K/BB ratio of 22:4 over his last 18 innings. A high school pick out of Georgia, Vineyard just turned 19 in October, so the Mets will be slow moving Vineyard up, so his ETA at the earliest right now should be 2011.
10. Eddie Kunz, Closer
Minaya loves taking college closers high in the draft with the hopes of getting them quickly into the major league bullpens, and that was the case here. The tools are there, and he looked solid in college, but Kunz struggled in his pro debut, with an ERA of 6.75 in the New York/Penn League and 10.13 in the AFL. Kunz allowed a run to score in four of his nine AFL appearances and he allowed a baserunner in all but one – not exactly closer-like performances. He could get on track in 2008 and move quickly still, but we are hesitant to rate him higher than this.