Matt Holliday might have been disappointed by the end result of the World Series, but that is the only thing he should have to be disappointed about after his 2007 season.
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Back in 2004, the principal owners of the Colorado Rockies, Charlie and Dick Montfort, decided that the team needed restructuring. Several years of signing big name free agents, hoping they would deliver the team a trip to the post season, only resulted in losing seasons and dead weight on the payroll for the 15-year-old franchise. During a discussion about whether to re-sign Vinny Castilla for another year, the Montforts instead committed to plans that ensured the majority of the team’s players would come from within the Rockies player development program. Patiently, they waited through three more losing seasons until the breakthrough success of 2007, which saw the Rockies set a team record for wins in a season with 90. The Rockies played October baseball in the Mile High City for the first time since 1999, and the Rockies captured the team’s first NL Pennant and the right to play in the World Series against the Boston Red Sox. However, they were no match for the pitching-rich Red Sox, who swept the Rockies in four straight games. There is reason to rejoice in Denver though, as the team is poised to be competitive again in 2008 and beyond. Let us take a closer look at how this came to be.
What Went Right
The starting pitching for the Rockies actually started to come together during the 2006 season. Had that 2006 team been more consistent offensively, the team might have made the post season then. Fast-forward to 2007, when the pitching fired on all cylinders, all season long. None better than lefty Jeff Francis, who emerged as the staff ace with a record of 17-9, a 4.22 ERA, and 215 innings pitched. His 17 wins was the most ever by a lefty for the Rockies, and second only to C.C. Sabathia's 19 wins for a lefty in MLB during 2007. His first six starts of the season were somewhat uneven. Take those numbers out of his stats and he was 16-5 with a 3.82 ERA over his last 28 regular season starts.
Josh Fogg was a solid, if unspectacular, contributor throughout the season. In particular, during his five starts in September he went 3-0 with a 3.25 ERA, with the team winning all five games he started.
Aaron Cook was also pitching quite effectively until an oblique injury cut his season short in August. He was 8-7 with a 4.12 ERA, and even came back to pitch pretty well in the World Series despite missing 10 weeks of action.
During a 10-day period in late July and early August, the team lost three of its starting pitchers due to injuries; Cook (oblique), Jason Hirsch (broken fibula), and Rodrigo Lopez (elbow). Two youngsters from the team's farm system, Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales, stepped up to keep the team in contention. Jimenez gave them 15 starts in which he went 4-4 with a 4.28 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 82 innings, while Morales gave them 8 starts, going 3-2 with 3.43 ERA, at one point putting up 20 consecutive scoreless innings.
Another young pitcher emerged as the team's closer when Brian Fuentes blew four consecutive save opportunities in late June. Manny Corpas shifted from setup man to closer, and from the All Star break on, converted 18 of 19 save opportunities with an ERA of 1.54, BAA of .211, and 25/6 K/BB ratio in 35 innings of work. Corpas will at least compete for the closer’s job in the spring, and may get the job outright if the Rockies move Fuentes in a trade this winter.
The Rockies were among the top five teams in MLB in nearly every offensive category and second only to the Phillies in the Senior Circuit. Slugging outfielder Matt Holliday led the way, putting on an offensive clinic and posting incredible numbers. He led the NL in RBI (137), Batting Avg. (.340), hits (216), total bases (386), extra base hits (92), and doubles (50). He also hit 36 homers, scored 120 runs, and even stole 11 bases. Holliday is just the third player to lead either league in both batting average and RBI since Carl Yastrzemski last won the Triple Crown in 1967. (The others were Joe Torre in 1971 and Todd Helton in 2000). He will be 28 years old this season and entering his prime production years, so expect more of the same for 2008.
After a dismal 2006 season that saw a precipitous drop in production all around, 2007 was nothing short of a bounce back year for Rockies elder statesman, Todd Helton. The average (.320) is still there, though the seasons of 30+ homers appear to be gone for good. Helton hit 17 round trippers this season along with 42 doubles. He still knows how to take a walk though, and defensively, he had just two errors in 1545 total chances. In fact, the Rockies committed the fewest errors (68) in MLB while getting the most chances (6326).
Brad Hawpe continued his growth as a hitter in 2007, increasing his power numbers (29 homers, 116 RBI) while maintaining his average (.291). Hawpe drove in a run every 4.4 at bats, good enough for tops on the Rockies and second in the NL behind Ryan Howard who drove in a run every 3.9 at bats.
The biggest story in Colorado this season, besides their wild run to the World Series, was the emergence of Rookie of the Year, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Tulowitzki proved to be the total package, providing offensive power at the plate and stellar defense in the field. He batted .291 with 24 homers, 99 RBI, scored 104 runs, and had an OBP of .359. In addition, he lead all shortstops in fielding percentage (.987), total chances (834), assists (561), putouts (262), and double plays (114). He should provide equally good numbers in the Mile High City for years to come.
What Went Wrong
It is somewhat difficult to find things that went wrong for the Rockies. All of the pieces just seemed to fall into place for them. One issue they did have involved the hitters at the top of their order.
Willy Taveras proved to be a great acquisition by the Rockies, although he had some difficulty with injuries again, and only managed to play in 97 games. Still, he hit .320, clearly benefiting from Coors field's dimensions, and stole 33 bases as the lead off batter. The Rockies need him to stay healthy and to get on base for the sluggers behind him in the order.
The other spark plug in the lineup was Kazuo Matsui, acquired from the Mets at the end of the 2006 season. Matsui thrived in Colorado, batting from the two hole most of the season. He stole 32 bases, while only getting caught four times, and helped provide a one-two punch at the top of the lineup along with Taveras when they were both healthy. Matsui only managed 104 games in '07. The team has already lost him to free agency.
The Rockies also had injury problems among the starting pitchers. As already mentioned, they lost Cook, Hirsch, and Lopez during a 10-day stretch in July and August. They lucked out with the young pitchers that bailed them out. One can only speculate how much farther the team might have advanced in the World Series with more experienced pitching against the Red Sox. In the final analysis, other than Todd Helton, this was an extremely young team, and the lack of experienced veteran players on the bench may have made a difference in their ultimate outcome. Then again, it could be that these players were too young and inexperienced to realize that they were not supposed to be that good.
The Moves They Made
In 2006, the Rockies auditioned several players in center field, most notably Cory Sullivan. While Sullivan appears to have the tools to be a decent player, he simply did not pan out as the top-of-the-order hitter they wanted him to be. He cannot hit for power, cannot steal bases, and is too much of a free swinger to get on base at an acceptable rate to lead off. So the Rockies first need last winter was a lead off hitter who could play center field. They found their man in Willy Taveras, whom they acquired in a trade with the Houston Astros along with right hand pitchers Taylor Buchholz and Jason Hirsch in exchange for right-handers Jason Jennings and Miguel Asencio. The Rockies clearly got the better end of the deal as all three players they acquired contributed to the success of the team, although a broken leg shortened Hirsch’s season and Taveras made several trips to the DL, missing more than 60 games.
Another key addition was the trade with the Orioles for Rodrigo Lopez, for whom they sent a couple of minor league arms to Baltimore. Lopez was pitching fairly well until an injury shortened his season. He became a free agent at the end of the season and it is not clear whether the Rockies are interested in bringing him back.
Some other signings they made included OF/1B John Mabry, outfielder Steve Finley, reliever Mike DeJean, reliever Latroy Hawkins, and reliever Matt Herges. Of those, only Herges and Hawkins stuck with the team. Herges was quite effective in his 35 appearances, striking out 30 in 48 innings of work with an ERA of 2.96, and Hawkins was effective for the team in middle inning relief with an ERA of 3.42.
The Rockies attempted to bring another pitcher into the fold to close out games when it became apparent that Brian Fuentes was struggling with his control, and before Manny Corpas got his chance. They acquired reliever Jorge Julio from the Marlins in exchange for the much-maligned Byung-Hyun Kim. Julio blew seven save opportunities, and pretty much pitched his way out of Colorado with an all around poor performance.
The Moves They Did Not Make (But Should Have)
As previously stated, the sheer youth of the team and the lack of veterans in the clubhouse may have contributed to the ultimate failure of the Rockies in the World Series. Nowhere was it more apparent than on the mound among the starting pitchers. There were several veteran pitchers available last winter that may have been suitable for Coors Field. Jeff Suppan comes to mind as the kind of pitcher that might have fit nicely into the Rockies rotation while providing a veteran presence among the young starters on the roster.
Willy Taveras was probably acquired because of his relatively low salary, so suggesting someone like Juan Pierre at $7 or $8 million per year would not make much sense. I am not a big fan of Pierre anyway. However, the Rockies have some of the most promising young talent of any major league team. No less an authority than Bill James believes that the Rockies have the strongest minor league system and deepest talent pool in baseball. They probably could have packaged a few of those young players together and shipped them to the Braves for Andruw Jones last winter. While that would not have yielded the lead off batter they wanted, it would have given them the scariest line up in baseball for the 2007 season. Considering that they may not have been able to sign Jones beyond the one year, it is probably best that I am not the GM.
Then again, it is high time the Rockies got out from under Todd Helton's contract. Supposedly, the Rockies were about to deal him last winter, first to Boston, then to Anaheim. The Rockies should move him while he still has the value to bring back talent in return. Several teams would love a .300+ hitter with some power still in the tank. At the very least, they should be able to get a couple of pitching prospects and a bat in return for Helton.
Where Now?
The only player of real importance that is gone from the team is Kaz Matsui. The Rockies need to find a replacement for him at second base. They have a young third baseman named Ian Stewart, who should be ready to make the leap. Rumor has it the team is working him out at second base, and may play him there, while retaining Garrett Atkins at third.
The team appears to have ample pitching, but they would still benefit from the presence of a veteran starter on the roster. They also need to address the bullpen. Manny Corpas can close if they decide to move Fuentes in a trade. They have an option on Hawkins that they will likely exercise, but will need to sign another arm or two to ensure depth in the pen.
Chris Iannetta is a fine young catcher who struggled at the plate in his first full year in the majors, yielding to Yorvit Torrealba more often than not. This year should see playing time reversed, as Iannetta can and will hit.
The rest of the lineup will return for 2008. If Taveras can stay healthy, the offense produces like it did in '07, and the pitching maintains and builds on its success, there is no reason the Rockies will not make the post-season again in 2008.
Fantasy Corner
Three Keepers
1. Matt Holliday – Arguably the best power-hitting outfielder in the game, hitting his prime years.
2. Brad Hawpe – If he could figure out lefties, he would be Holliday II.
3. Troy Tulowitzki – I have seen the next great shortstop, and his name is Troy, age 23.
Three Sleepers
1. Ian Stewart – 2007 Minor league stats - .304 avg., 15 HR, 65 RBI, .379 OBP. He has got nothing left to prove and should be with the big club in '08, possibly at 2B.
2. Joe Koshansky – 2007 Minor league stats - .295 avg., 21 HR, 99 RBI, .380 OBP. Helton stands in his way. If Helton gets hurt or dealt, Koshansky is ready to step in.
3. Chris Iannetta – Projects as a .300 hitter with 20+ HR power. Given the chance he could be the second coming of Mike Piazza.