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Fantasy Grumblings: Draft Day Steals - Outfielders
By Tony Finn \| Published 12/31/1969 \| Value Above Average \| Unrated

Tony Finn Managing Editor and Director of Operations for Sports Grumblings LLC, is nationally published covering the National Football League, Major League Baseball, College Football and has been a FSWA Writer of the Year finalist. Involved with Fantasy Sports since 1973, Tony has hosted radio and internet broadcasts that include the 'Dog and Tony Show' with NFL draft analyst D.J Boyer, 'Football Central', 'Finn on Sports', 'Gridiron Gamblers', and is the Senior NFL analyst for the PBS broadcast of "NFL Intellect". Tony's columns include 'The Finn Factor', 'Six Days to Sunday' and 'Sunday No Huddle' which are featured exclusively at Sports Grumblings and 'For Better, For Worse' a weekly feature for SportsIllustrated. View all articles by Tony Finn Hart heads the OF list of draft day steals... Fantasy baseball players' "value" should not be based on what a player will sell for or what his expected average draft position will be on draft day. It should be what a player will be worth over the course of the season and how he rates among his positional peers. Predicting what a player will sell for (AAV), or where he will be drafted (ADP) is far too dependent on league prejudices. It's important to understand that regardless of the labels a major league player carries -- or how a so-called expert views an individual -- it never affects his true overall worth. A fantasy baseball player is valued by his season ending stat line and how he ranks among the other players at that particular position. The primary mistake made by metric experts and fantasy managers is comparing one player's stats to another at a different position. Providing an overall Top 250 rankings without offering a specific player value or incorporating positional scarcity into the formula simply doesn't work. One must understand that each position or roster spot has an equal value in standard 5x5 Rotisserie formats. And how much a particular player will out produce the average player at a particular position is The Way to Rotisserie success. Understanding what a player is actually worth in relation to the rules that outline a particular league offers a more predictable model, and done correctly affords the fantasy owner his or her best chance of success. I could break down all of the statistical analysis that argues the value of one player against another regardless of positional qualification, but offering a short but concise list of players and their value in relation to average is a more eye-friendly visual. Over the years there have been several formulas created to estimate positional scarcity, but in no other fantasy sport is it more important than baseball. Anthony Perri of Fantistics developed VAM (value above mean), Joe Bryant of Football Guys stakes claim to VBD (value-based drafting), and while I don't subscribe to the VBD theory in the small sample football offers, it is the bottom line to success for baseball managers. Today's task is not to tackle the computation of a player's fantasy "worth" among his peers or how he compares to other players at different positions. It's still too early to prognosticate ADP and AAV. I will however offer an early look at the top outfielders most likely to produce above the league mean and the personnel owners should target in January rotisserie drafts. If you want to be successful in your fantasy baseball draft -- tag the following list of players. Draft Day Steals - Outfielders 1. Corey Hart - Milwaukee Hart, who is far from a household name in the fantasy realm, has the potential to record 90 runs and RBI and steal 25 bases. Throw in a batting average of .290 with 25 home runs and you have Top-10 overall numbers among the outfield fraternity. All of this from a guy who could be had as late as the sixth, seventh or eighth rounds in a 12-team league. The 26-year-old Hart hit .330 with six home runs and 20 RBI in the final month of the 2007 campaign. 2. Hunter Pence - Houston Hunter, another player that won't don the cover of pre-season fantasy publications, can hit for average and power; and his ability to steal bases makes him a candidate to hit in the leadoff spot for the Astros. Houston manager Cecil Cooper said he wants to put Pence in the No. 3 spot, a more favorable slot for fantasy owners. Pence will produce numbers much like the top choice in this list, Corey Hart (.290 BA /90 Runs / 90 RBI / 25 HR), but won't steal as many bases and will likely be drafted before the Brewer. Both Hart and Pence have the potential to outperform players like the Mets' Carlos Beltran, Astros' Carlos Lee, Red Sox Manny Ramirez and Mariners' Ichiro Suzuki; outfielders projected to be drafted well before either player. 3. Josh Hamilton - Texas The five-tool talent emerged in his rookie campaign with the Reds and made front-page news in the sports arena due to overcoming past issues with substance abuse. Hamilton was limited to 90 games because of injuries but was dynamic when healthy hitting 19 home runs and 47 RBI. The move from the National League to the American League (Texas) boosts his fantasy value. Barring injury, Hamilton will play every day for the Rangers and benefits from half of his at-bats coming in hitter friendly Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. 4. Chris Young - Arizona The 24-year-old Diamondbacks centerfielder needs to improve his plate discipline before he can be considered a five-tool talent, but one has to love the kid’s combination of power and speed. In 148 game last season Young recorded 85 runs scored, 68 RBI, 32 home runs and 27 stolen bases. His .237 batting average and .295 on base percentage makes him somewhat of a risk in rotisserie formats. 5. Delmon Young - Minnesota Young, who was traded to Minnesota in a six-player deal this winter, is in a perfect position to improve his rookie numbers (.288 / 65 Runs / 93 RBI / 13 HR / 10 SB). The ex-Devil Ray, who will likely hit between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, has a legitimate chance to impress in a Minnesota uniform. Young is only 22-year-old so his power numbers will improve and the Twins newest addition showed durability by being the first rookie since Hideki Matsui (2003) to play in all his team's games. Continue to check back as we cover potential draft days steals for the 2008 fantasy baseball season. Remember, reactive approaches can only get you so far. Proactive approaches are what will make you a legend. "It don't mean a thing if you don't win that bling."