The Giants have plenty of old, dead weight bringing the team down, but Tim Lincecum is a pleasant exception.
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Years of trading off one prospect after another have caught up with the San Francisco Giants. The minor league system is weak and the major league team is old.
It did not have to be this way. The system did have talent, once, but the team has been in “win now” mode for what seems like a decade, leading to on disastrous trade after another. This includes what many, including this author, would consider one of the worst trades in the history of baseball, and certainly the worst in the last forty years, wherein general manager Brian Sabean traded Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser, and Francisco Liriano to the Minnesota Twins for A.J. Pierzynski, who would be cut after just one season.
The age of the team, the lack of minor league talent, and ineptitude of the front office caught up with the Giants painfully this year, as they would be the only team in their division not to be in contention at any point for postseason action.
What Went Right
Matt Cain would finish the season with a record of 7-16, but that was the only thing bad about his final numbers, and that poor record is solely the fault of his teammates. For one, he posted an earned run average of 3.65 and a solid strikeout-to-walk ratio of 163:79. Further, while he did have issues at times with his consistency, 22 of his 32 starts were quality starts. To give you an idea of how bad his run support was, Cain would toss five quality starts in April and post an ERA of 1.54, yet finished 1-1 for the month. Cain looks like he should develop into an ace, but a little run support would be nice.
Speaking of future aces, one of the Giants’ few remaining prospects, Tim Lincecum, emerged in 2007, and he showed flashes of why everyone is so excited about him. Lincecum would make 24 starts for the Giants and he was 7-5 with a 4.00 ERA. In 146 1/3 innings, Lincecum struck out 150 while walking just 65.
Sometimes, it is better to be lucky than good. Such was the case for Noah Lowry, as he finished the season 14-8 with a 3.92 ERA in 26 starts. Not bad results, but how he got there was less than impressive, as he posted a pathetic strikeout-to-walk ratio of 87:87 in 156 innings. Opposing batters reached base at a .363 clip against him. Luck was certainly Lowry’s friend in 2007.
What Went Wrong
It is hard to be a tablesetter when you cannot stay healthy. Such was the case with Dave Roberts in 2007, as he would appear in just 114 games for the Giants. When he was on the field, his numbers disappointed, as he would hit just .260, and his .331 on base percentage was his lowest since 2003. At this point, Roberts is beginning to look like a fourth outfielder at best due to his lack of production and his lack of health.
Roberts was not the only one having issues staying on the field. Barry Bonds would break the most sacred record in the game, but he also would do so in just 126 games, as his health issues have reached a point where Bonds clearly is no longer an everyday player. Bonds would finish the season hitting .276 with 28 home runs, 66 RBI, and 75 runs scored. Those might not be bad numbers for an average player, but they are far from normal Bonds numbers, and this marked the third straight season where one could not count on him in a regular capacity and where he would not produce as he used to.
Ryan Klesko was never a great offensive force, but at least he used to put up respectable numbers. That is not the case anymore. Klesko finished 2007 with 362 at-bats over 116 games, and he hit .260 with 6 home runs, 44 RBI, and 51 runs. Those would be bad numbers for a middle infielder – for a first baseman, they are simply pathetic.
Speaking of players that used to produce, Ray Durham used to be one of the better offensive second basemen in the game. Those days are long over, as he hit just .218 with 11 home runs, 71 RBI, and 56 runs scored. Sadly for Giants’ fans, the Giants are planning on the 36-year-old Durham being a big part of their 2008 season. Either they do not see the obvious signs of decline here, or they do not care.
The soon-to-be 41-year-old Omar Vizquel was also once a quality hitter, but those days are long since passed. Vizquel finished 2007 hitting just .246 with 4 home runs, 51 RBI, and 54 runs scored. Sure, he can still turn a double play, and the 90 he was involved in during the 2007 season were his most as a Giant, but he has reached a point where his impeccable glove skills no longer make up for his offensive failings.
Rich Aurilia has never been known for his glove, but he used to be able to hit. He had an offensive resurgence in 2006, hitting 23 home runs for the Reds with a .300 batting average. The Giants were hoping for some of that offense in 2007, and what they got in exchange was a .252 batting average, 5 home runs, 33 RBI, and 40 runs scored in 329 at-bats in 99 games.
The Moves They Made
The first free agent signing of note after bring back Durham was the signing of Roberts, and that clearly did not work out. At best, Roberts is a great fourth outfielder, and he demonstrated that in 2007. Aurilia signed next, and that made the signing of Roberts seem downright brilliant.
Bengie Molina signed on with the Giants after having spent a year in Canada. Molina would appear in a career high 134 games, hit a career high 81 RBI, tie his career high of 19 home runs, and hit .276 in 497 at-bats. Finally, a signing that worked out for the Giants.
Now, back to the moronic signings. As we stated above, Ryan Klesko was a horrific corner infielder. There were pitchers in the National League that were better offensive contributors than Klesko.
Then, there was the Barry Zito signing. There was nothing in Zito’s track record that suggested he would be with either the millions or the years that the Giants were tossing at Zito. If anything, there were warning signs in his numbers suggesting that he had been quite lucky to have maintained an ERA below 4.00 in 2005 and 2006, and that there was an end coming to that soon enough. That end did come, and Zito was a train wreck for much of the season. In 34 appearances, 33 as a starter, Zito was 11-13 with a 4.53 ERA, with 131 strikeouts and 83 walks in 196 2/3 innings. Zito’s strikeout rates continue to drop and walk rates continue to rise. There is no way that this signing will work out for the Giants.
Feeling a touch of nostalgia, the Giants would then go out and sign Russ Ortiz. That was most definitely a mistake. In 12 appearances, eight as a starter, Ortiz was 2-3 with a 5.51 ERA, with 27 strikeouts and 20 walks in 49 innings. Nostalgia is not a good reason to sign washed up pitchers.
On May 31, the Giants felt they had enough with closer Armando Benitez, so the Giants traded him to the Marlins for Randy Messenger. Messenger was serviceable at best for the Giants, going 1-3 with a 5.09 ERA in 37 appearances with a mediocre 22:12 K/BB ratio.
The only other move of note would be the best trade of Sabean’s career, as he dumped Matt Morris and his ridiculous, bloated contract on the hapless Pirates for Rajai Davis. Really, the Giants would have taken a Twinkie and a Ding Dong. A great trade for a player the Giants had no interest in whatsoever.
The Moves They Did Not Make (But Should Have)
This team needs to get young, and their failure to make any moves in that direction will only mean for more losing seasons, in both 2008 and 2009, and likely 2010 as well.
First, the Giants enjoyed the ticket sales that Bonds brought in, but his returning only meant that the rebuilding process would be delayed further. The Giants chose short-term ticket sales over long-term gain here.
Additionally, instead of re-signing Durham, the team should have looked to finally give Kevin Frandsen a chance to show what he can or cannot do at second base. Again, the Giants went for short-term gain instead of long-term outlook, and it backfired on them.
When the season was clearly over, which is was sooner than the Giants would like to admit, they should have begun selling. This team had plenty of parts that the Giants could have moved at the deadline for quality. The Phillies, for one, needed a catcher, and Molina will not be a part of the Giants when they are finally ready to win again. Someone could have used Pedro Feliz in a utility capacity. Any and everything not nailed down the Giants should have been shopping. Instead, all that the Giants moved was Matt Morris. This is a huge mistake.
Where Now?
To the basement – that is where. This team needs a significant overhaul, and the talent simply is not there for that to happen overnight. The team fielded a lineup in 2007 where none of the primary eight was below the age of 32, and the 2008 model will not change much from that.
For the Giants to turn things around, they are going to need to both sell off whatever remains while also having patience with their minor league system. As many teams, like the Twins, can attest, the Giants lack patience.
Fantasy Corner
Three Keepers
1. Aaron Rowand – will the move to the Bay Area hurt his numbers?
2. Matt Cain – an ace in the making.
3. Tim Lincecum – another ace in the making.
Three Sleepers
1. Brian Wilson – can he continue to perform as the closer over a full season?
2. Kevin Frandsen – the Giants will eventually have to give him a chance, right?
3. Rajai Dais – he can run; the trick is going to be getting on base consistently.
