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Fantasy Grumblings: Draft Day Steals - First Base
By Tony Finn \| Published 01/11/2008 \| Value Above Average \| Unrated

Tony Finn Managing Editor and Director of Operations for Sports Grumblings LLC, is nationally published covering the National Football League, Major League Baseball, College Football and has been a FSWA Writer of the Year finalist. Involved with Fantasy Sports since 1973, Tony has hosted radio and internet broadcasts that include the 'Dog and Tony Show' with NFL draft analyst D.J Boyer, 'Football Central', 'Finn on Sports', 'Gridiron Gamblers', and is the Senior NFL analyst for the PBS broadcast of "NFL Intellect". Tony's columns include 'The Finn Factor', 'Six Days to Sunday' and 'Sunday No Huddle' which are featured exclusively at Sports Grumblings and 'For Better, For Worse' a weekly feature for SportsIllustrated. View all articles by Tony Finn Votto is a keeper... Cardinals’ first baseman Albert Pujols dominated fantasy baseball drafts last season. The former Rookie of the Year, National League MVP and six-time All Star -- was the overall number-one selection in 98 percent of February and March drafts a year ago -- and recorded the largest AAV (average auction value) of any player since the format became user-friendly on the Web. It's a given in the fantasy realm that most players are drafted based on previous performance, almost solely on their prior year stats. A player's potential is secondary to those that have already performed, and for good reason. History repeats itself; players have limits, both physical and mental, and predictive models are predicated by this information. The bottom line is that fantasy owners who have the ability or resources; be it premium software and fine tuned projections -- or the self taught mental capacity to capture and conquer these variables -- will succeed in fantasy baseball. First base, the least physically demanding of any position in baseball, is by far the most reliable when projecting player statistics, and using this predictability to ones advantage is a must on draft day. Understanding positional scarcity and value above average, not only among positional peers but also within the entire container of player personnel, is just the first step in fantasy baseball success. There is more to winning a championship than just drafting the Shangri-la of player personnel, one must manage prospects and free agents during the season if they plan to commandeer the optimal team. It's still early in the hunt to definitively determine the rank and file; but for now, consider this list of first baseman the players that will fly under the fantasy radar; offer value above average; and give managers the champions of the mid-to-late round choices in upcoming winter drafts. 1. James Loney - LA Dodgers The Dodgers are ready to turn over the everyday first base job to Loney. The 23-year-old has left little to prove at Class AAA after hitting a combined .360 during the 2006-07 campaigns. During the final month with the parent club last year Loney hit .396 with 18 runs scored, 36 RBI and 9 home runs in just over 100 at bats. If the young first base/outfielder can carry just a portion of his stellar September into April, fantasy owners will have a mid-round steal. 2. Carlos Pena - Tampa Bay Pena appears to be a late bloomer. The "Comeback Player of the Year" still needs to improve his plate discipline after striking out 142 times in 148 games last year, but the one-time hot prospect of the Tigers finally lived up to his potential hitting 46 HRs in his first year with the Devil Rays. His 99 runs scored and 121 RBI will be difficult to reproduce this season, but in the 29-year-olds first full season since 2004, he was outstanding. Pena is a solid No. 1 bagman for owners who find him available in the ninth round or later of 12-team mixed formats. 3. Joey Votto - Cincinnati The 6' 3" 220 pound rookie is an interesting subject. Votto is expected to be the everyday first baseman for the Reds this season and while Sports Grumblings currently has the first baseman/outfielder projected to play in 125 games and receive only 430 at bats, those numbers could jump if he has any early season success. Votta has the potential to be a .300-25-100 contributor, and soon. Take a mid-to-late round flier on the Reds rookie and watch him shine in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.