Each year, all us so called "experts" pull out our crystal ball and predict which players will be total flops for the upcoming year. Of course, there is some luck involved here, but there is also quite a bit of homework required to ferret out those players who will offer substantially less production then they will cost you on draft day. So this article will attempt to address those players to avoid on draft day.

One note before I get to the pitchers. I'm NOT saying that all the pitchers here will end up putting together a season that makes you wish you had played fantasy golf instead, I'm merely stating that each pitcher discussed below will likely underperform in relation to his cost on draft day making him a "bust" in terms of value.

As always, I'm taking the path less traveled and choosing some big-name players here to single out as possible letdowns in 2007. I could end up being wrong of course, but the bottom line is that this list includes the pitchers to avoid on draft day since they will, simply put, are unlikely to offer a return on investment.

AMERICAN LEAGUE 

Erik Bedard, SP, BAL (15-11, 3.76 ERA, 171 K, 1.35 WHIP in 196.1 IP)

Will the real Bedard stand up? Sometimes we are all guilty of overvaluing potential, and the question is relevant when we discuss Bedard. In 2004-05, Bedard went 12-18 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. In the first half of 2006 he went 10-6, but his ERA and WHIP were basically the same as they were the previous two seasons (4.28 ERA, 1.36 WHIP). Bedard is just 27-29 in his career, owns a career ERA over four (4.08), has never thrown 200 innings in a season and possesses a 1.43 career WHIP. Bedard did show improvement in the second half of 2006 despite a poor record of 5-5 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 8.6 K/9IP over his final 87 IP. However, his K/BB ratio against lefties was a poor on the year 1.64 (it was 2.87 against righties), and his 1.35 WHIP certainly isn't anything to get excited over. So you will be really paying for the potential here since his numbers last year were better, but certainly not top notch. Bedard did have the 4^th best K/9IP ratio of any lefty in the AL (7.84), and he was 6^th in the league at inducing groundballs (1.88 GB/FB ratio), but the 15 Wins will likely drive up his price to a point where you might want to pass.

Jose Contreras, SP, CWS (13-9, 4.27 ERA, 134 Ks, 1.27 WHIP in 196 IP)

Contreras finished 2005 in style going 9-1 with a 2.07 ERA over the final two months of the season. He then opened up the 2006 season much the same way going a 9-0 to give him an 18-1 record over those two halves. At the break last year, besides the 9-0 mark, Contreras owned a 3.38 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and people were seriously talking about him and the Cy Young award. However, as good as he was in the first half, he was as bad in the second half as he went through a collapse going 4-9 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Overall, his BB/9IP dropped (2.53) while his K/BB ratio climbed (2.44) as compared to 2005, so there is some reason to think he will do no worse than he did last year. However, he is definitely a question mark on draft day considering last year's collapse, and his uncertain age (they say he will be 36 on draft day). If you can sneak him through late then he could provide some decent returns, but don't pay for the guy who went 18-1 over the second half of 2005 and the first half of 2006.

Jon Garland, SP, CWS (18-7, 4.51 ERA, 112 Ks, 1.36 WHIP in 211.1 IP)

Garland has turned into a winner the past two seasons with 18 victories each year, giving him an AL leading 36 victories over that stretch, a fact that will certainly drive his price way up on draft day as people chase wins (he has won at least 12 games in five straight seasons). However, there are some warning signs that you should heed. (1) Garland's ERA rose more than a full run in 2006 as compared to 2005 to just a tick above his career mark of 4.44. (2) Garland's WHIP, which was a stellar 1.17 in 2005, regressed back in line with his career number of 1.38 in 2006. Garland also failed to record 120 Ks, the fifth straight time he has failed to do so despite throwing at least 190 innings in each of those five seasons. Garland is a solid roster filler, but if you draft him hoping that he can be your #3 starter, you are likely to be in a bit of trouble.

Mike Mussina, SP, NYY (15-7, 3.51 ERA, 172 Ks, 1.11 WHIP in 197.1 IP)

Despite last years success, let's not get ahead of ourselves here with Mussina. A consistent source of production for 15 years, Mike has won has won at least 11 games in each of those seasons. However, Mussina failed to reach 200 IP for the third consecutive season in 2006 though after two sub par seasons in 2004-05, the 37-year-old Mussina rebounded with a more "Mussina-like" performance in 2006 that saw him rank 3^rd in the AL in WHIP (1.11), 4th in ERA (3.51) and 9^th in K/9IP (7.84). Despite what was his finest season since 2003, Mussina still has more years in the past five with an ERA above 4.00 than below it (3 to 2), and If he had just been a little off in 2004 or 2005 we might look the other way, but the fact that he was poor in both seasons is a concern (an aggregate ERA of 4.50 with a 1.35 WHIP in an average of 172 IP). Mussina will still be solid this year, but don't pay for the name or expect a repeat of last year's performance.

Justin Verlander, SP, DET (17-9, 3.63 ERA, 124 Ks, 1.33 WHIP in 186 IP)

Justin Verlander was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2006 after a strong rookie season; the problem with Verlander was his performance as the season wore on. Verlander was 10-4 with a 3.01 ERA at the all-star break before posting a 7-5 record with a 4.54 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over his final 13 starts. Moreover, he was even worse over his final 10 starts with a 5.72 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. The Tigers realized what was happening and skipped Verlander's turn in the rotation a couple of times, but that was a scary way to end his season. Combine that with the fact that he had only 6.0 K/9IP, a really low total for a guy who throws 95+ consistently, and something seems amiss with Justin. Verlander will likely be solid this year, but the specter of an injury and his cost on draft day will likely result in his performance being a slight let down.

Chien-Ming Wang, SP, NYY (19-6, 3.63 ERA, 76 Ks, 1.31 WHIP in 218 IP)

If you were wondering who the luckiest pitcher in baseball is, you have likely found him right here.

Wang tied for the ML lead in wins with 19 (Santana) in a wildly successful second season. Wang led the AL in GB/FB ratio and was 2^nd in GIDP Induced (33), a result of one of the best sinkers in the game. Reasons for concern abound. (1) Because he relied on the sinker so much he produced very few Ks, 76, actually just the 135^th best mark in baseball. (2) He produced a 1.46 K/BB ratio, a terrible mark for someone who reached his level of success last year. (3) Wang's 1.31 WHIP was 37^th in baseball amongst starters. Wang will likely still win ball games in 2007, but his performance last year was likely done with smoke and mirrors. Unless he is 100% on his game all year long and continues to receive the "luck" that was his trademark last year, there is every reason to believe he will post an ERA above 4.00 this year, and with less than 100 Ks, that's just not worth much on draft day.