Bronson Arroyo, SP, CIN (14-11, 3.29 ERA, 184 Ks, 1.19 WHIP in 240.2)

Arroyo came to the NL to a hitters park and proceeded to put up the best numbers of his career for the Reds. Arroyo led all of baseball in IP last year and he faced 992 batters on the year, one less than teammates Aaron Harang's ML leading figure. Arroyo also led the majors with 35 starts on the year and threw a ton of pitches (3,852) to lead the majors as well. Arroyo did allow 31 HRs, the second highest mark in the NL, though he balanced out that failing by holding opponents to a .296 OBP, the fourth best mark in the NL. Surprisingly, Arroyo was a better pitcher at home in 2006 (6-2, 2.60 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) than on the road (4.00 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) and it's simply not reasonable to expect that home performance to continue. Arroyo did win 14 games for the 2^nd straight year, and he posted career bests in H/9IP (8.30), WHIP (1.19) and K (184) as well. However, there is a ton of use on an arm that had never produced more than 142 Ks in a season previously, and don't forget that Arroyo entered 2006 with a career ERA of 4.03.

Francisco Cordero, RP, MIL (10-5, 3.70 ERA, 84 K, 1.34 WHIP in 75.1 IP)

Cordero had a weird 2006 season. After struggling to start the season, he was replaced in the closers role in Texas by Akinori Otsuka. Cordero was then dealt to the Brewers where he pitched like he had in the past with 16 SVs and a 1.69 ERA in 26.2 IP. However, there are still a few things to be concerned with this season. First, though Cordero's ERA dropped almost 2 runs in the second half (4.43 to 2.76), his WHIP actually rose to 1.44 from 1.27. That doesn't make any sense does it? Second, Cordero's 3.46 K/BB ratio in the first half fell drastically to 2.05 in the second half, so again, his sub 3.00 ERA in the season's second half doesn't seem to jibe. Third, despite the undeniable stuff, Francisco owns a career 1.39 WHIP and hasn't seen that number drop below 1.28 in any of the past four seasons. Some yahoo will likely look at the second half ERA and his 10 wins and likely overbid for him this year. Don't let that be you since the prudent move might be to pass depending on the cost.

Tom Glavine, SP, NYM (15-7, 3.82 ERA, 131 Ks, 1.33 WHIP in 198 IP)

Glavine's win total the past four years has gone up, up, up (9, 11, 13, 15) and he is now just 10 wins from 300. However, the 15 wins of last season will likely drive up his value too far this year even though he did reverse a trend of four straight double-digit losing seasons. Glavine did post his highest K total since 2000, though 131 Ks are hardly a number to be proud of. Glavine has posted an ERA below 3.90 in six of the last seven seasons, and he had thrown less than 180 innings in a season only once since 1988, but his mediocre numbers will likely cost more than they should because of his name, his team and the fact that he is on the wrong side of 40-years-old.

Jason Jennings, SP, HOU (9-13, 3.78 ERA, 142 K, 1.37 WHIP in 212 IP)

Jennings takes his darting sinker to Houston this year as the Astros hope he can flourish outside of Colorado. Coming off his best overall season, Jennings was actually a better pitcher in Colorado last year as his home numbers (5-5, 3.56 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) exceeded those that he accumulated on the road (4-8, 3.97 ERA, 1.32 WHIP). And that leads to the heart of the matter with this guy. Despite numbers last year that prove he pitched better in Coors Field, people still think his move to Houston will help his numbers because of the park differences. Truth be told, it should help a little, but few people seem to realize that Houston was a worse park in terms of allowing doubles, triples, HRs in 2006, so the "benefit" he will derive from his new home park could be minimal. Jennings did set a career-high with 212 IP last season which led to a career best 142 Ks, though he walked more than 80 batters for the third time in four years. Last year was the first time Jennings posted an ERA below 4.50 and the first time his WHIP was below 1.45, so don't go overboard here.

Jeff Suppan, SP, MIL (12-7, 4.12 ERA, 104 Ks, 1.45 WHIP in 190 IP.)

Suppan parlayed his quiet effectiveness during the regular season and a big post-season into a 4-year, $42 million deal with the Brewers. Suppan should continue to be what he has always been and that is a consistent end of the rotation starter, though his new contract and late season hot-streak might cause a few people to forget that fact (he was 6-2 with 2.39 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in the second half). Suppan has failed to record 200 innings, more than 114 Ks or a WHIP below 1.37 the past three years, and his K/BB ratio during that time is a poor 1.66. If you can grab him for a couple of dollars or at the end of your draft you will be fine, but if you have to reach before that to get him on your staff it would be wise to pass since he simply isn't anything more than a 5^th starter in the fantasy game.

Dontrelle Willis, SP, FLA (12-12, 3.8& ERA, 160 Ks, 1.42 WHIP in 223.1 IP)

After a dominating 2005 season when he went 22-10 with a 2.63 ERA, Willis predictably regressed in 2006. However, the extent to which he fell was the big surprise. The biggest surface change for Willis was the fact that his walk rate increased tremendously (3.34 per 9 IP) while he posted the worst K/BB ratio of his career (1.93). As a result he posted a career-low WHIP. Almost as troubling is the fact that his poor performance basically lasted the entire season as both halves were similar (3.94 ERA, 1.41 WHIP compared to second half numbers of 3.78/1.43). On the plus side, Willis did maintain his 2005 K-rate in 2006, and while an average of 165 Ks the past two years really doesn't seem that exciting, the 330 total Ks the past two seasons are actually the 22^nd best mark in baseball. If people in your league forget about 2005 Willis could be a decent value, but if they bid him up because they remember it fondly, you might want to pass on this pitcher who has alternated strong and average seasons the first four seasons of his career.

Ray Flowers, a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) and the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), can be reached with comments and questions at: rayf@sportsgrumblings.com