2007 Twins Team Preview




2007 Team Finish: 96-66 – 1st Place in the AL Central

Key Additions: 3B Jeff Cirillo, RH Sidney Ponson, RH Ramon Ortiz.

Key Losses: 1B Phil Nevin, OF Shannon Stewart, RH Brad Radke

In typical Terry Ryan fashion, the Twins GM let the old men go, and brought in low-risk, high-reward guys like Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz.  Spring training won’t be the same without Brad Radke, the man who embodied everything it meant to be a Twin.  Radke was a low-maintenance warrior with nothing too sexy about him, but he will be remembered for battling late last season until his right arm just about ripped off at the shoulder.

Once again the Twins main focus will be on pitching and defense.  Pitchers who have exceedingly low BB/9 rates are their forte.  If they can get 60 league-average starts out of pitchers not named Johan Santana, they’ll easily make the playoffs.  The offense has it’s holes, but with Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, it’s tough to get past the heart of the order unscathed. 

In The Field

Projected Lineup

1.    Luis Castillo, 2B
2.    Nick Punto, 3B
3.    Joe Mauer, C
4.    Michael Cuddyer, RF
5.    Justin Morneau, 1B
6.    Torii Hunter, CF
7.    Rondell White, LF
8.    Jason Kubel, DH
9.    Jason Bartlett, SS

Catcher: Joe Mauer is the best catcher in the game and the reigning AL batting champion. He was just rewarded with a brand new four-year deal over the off-season.  He’s an incredibly hard worker with a great BB/K ratio and good pop for a 23 year old.  His contact rate peaked last season and was among the league’s best. He doesn’t swing at a lot of first pitches, though his ability to take pitches only ranks somewhat above average.  Since his pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) aren’t that high (just 3.89 last season), one is led to believe that his pitch recognition is just that much better.  He doesn’t swing at the junk, and walks often enough (79) despite seeing under four P/PA .  Mauer didn’t go a month last year without posting an .800 OPS, a great sign of consistency across the board.  He’s one of those rare lefties who manages to actually hit lefties, with an .826 OPS against them.

First Base: Pitchers were intent on challenging Justin Morneau all year long, as evidenced by his 72 extra base hits (XBH) and just nine Intentional Walks.  His average should come back down to earth a bit in 2007, and that IBB total will certainly increase.  His BB rate was solid, though not spectacular in ’06, while his K rate was much improved from a dismal 2005.  He was actually hurt by a very slow start in April, in which he posted a .690 OPS.  But he followed that up in the following months with OPS totals of .838, 1.137, and 1.130 in May, June, and July respectively.  His BB/K ratio was much improved over the second half, which likely means that this wasn’t just a one-year deal, and that success should continue in 2007 and beyond.  The Canadian Crusher will be producing for years to come.

Second Base: Luis Castillo predominantly hits ground balls in an effort to get on base and steal a bag or two. The problem is that he’s not stealing bases at a 70% clip or better. Instead he’s getting thrown out, leaving himself no chance to score any runs in front of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer. Over the last two seasons, split between Florida and Minnesota, Castillo is 35 for 53 in stolen base attempts, which is the primary reason behind his dropping stolen base totals over the last few years.  His BB rate continues to decline, and his BB/K ratio was the worst it’s ever been in 2006, his first in the American League.  The good news is that his contact rate is still incredibly high, and he’s still seeing a lot of pitches.  He’s still serviceable as source for cheap steals at 2B, especially in AL-only leagues.

Third Base: The good news for Nick Punto owners (are there any out there?) is that he enjoyed a huge spike in his OPS.  The bad news is that his BaBIP suggests that his AVG was probably a little bit high, and that it should dip back down around the .265 range in 2007.  How the Twins can live with a man who hit 1 HR in 524 PA last year at the hot corner is beyond me, but I’m sure he’s just holding the spot until they can pick someone up next winter.  Fantasy owners are hoping that he’ll be able to repeat his 17 SB performance from a year ago.  He posted a 41/46 BB/K ratio from May through August, the trouble is that he posted a .543 OPS after August, along with a 3/18 BB/K ratio.  He’s a decent value play in the endgame for his SB potential, but otherwise, I’d stay clear as he could very well lose his job during the season to somebody like Jeff Cirillo.

Shortstop: Jason Bartlett enjoyed a breakout season in 2007. Well, by his standards it was a breakout season.  He was a serviceable middle infielder despite hitting just 22 XBH, due to ten stolen bases and a .309 AVG.  Unfortunately that average was a little bloated by an extremely lucky .359 BaBIP.  He’s not going to hit many HRs - likely no more than five over the course of 600 PA - but he could steal 17-20 bases and serve as a very good defensive option at short which should keep him in the lineup. Interesting stat to note: his OPS on the road was about 150 points higher than in the Metrodome, and he enjoyed three very solid months, posting .800+ OPS totals in June, July, and August. He closed out the season, however, with a subpar 3/15 BB/K ratio after September 1st and just two XBH in 112 PA.

Out In The Grass

Left Field: Rondell White’s P/PA have decreased each of the last four seasons, but the great news for the Twins, and White’s fantasy owners, is that most of his struggles occurred in the first half of 2006.  He came on strong in the second half, still with an incredibly bad BB/K ratio, but slugging .538.  Consider this, he went homer-less in 191 PA prior to the break, with just six XBH overall, before hitting 19 XBH in 164 PA after the break.  He had some downright ugly moments though, and struggled badly against right handed pitchers.  While his BB rate will never be confused with Joe Mauer’s, he’s still capable of posting much better numbers than his ’06 campaign suggests.

Center Field: Torii Hunter’s best days are undoubtedly behind him now. He’s more impatient than ever, though his season was salvaged by an incredibly high HR/F ratio including ten HR after September 1st.  While he was a good bet for 20/20 in the past, his SB have fallen by the wayside, as evidenced by just a 67% success rate last season. At 31 years old, his defense isn’t what it once was, limiting his value to a mediocre hitter who can pound out 20 HR with a bad BB/K ratio due to swinging at the first pitch way too often.  Don’t reach for him.


Right Field: Michael Cuddyer really broke out in a big way last season, and surprisingly, it doesn’t appear to be a fluke. Nothing was all that out of line with any of his previous statistics, and finally saw regular playing time for the first time in his career. His 70 XBH in 635 PA were amazing, and he really helped Justin Morneau by setting the table for him preventing pitchers from intentionally walking him more often.  We’d all like to see Cuddyer cut down on his big K rate, but what the hell, if he hits another 70 XBH, I don’t think his owners will be too disappointed by the strikeouts.  He doesn’t swing and miss at an abnormal rate and he tends to see a lot of pitches.  This tells me that pitchers are having to really battle to get three swings and misses out of him, a trend that will likely change as Cuddyer gets better, which he certainly will.