| Fantasy Grumblings: Draft Day Steals - Third Base |
| By Tony Finn |
Published
02/1/2008
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Value Above Average
| Unrated
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Tony Finn
Managing Editor and
Director of Operations for Sports Grumblings LLC, is nationally
published covering the National Football League, Major League Baseball,
College Football and has been a FSWA Writer of the Year finalist.
Involved with Fantasy Sports since 1973, Tony has hosted radio and
internet broadcasts that include the 'Dog and Tony Show' with NFL draft
analyst D.J Boyer, 'Football Central', 'Finn on Sports', 'Gridiron
Gamblers', and is the Senior NFL analyst for the PBS broadcast of "NFL
Intellect". Tony's
columns include 'The Finn Factor', 'Six Days to Sunday' and 'Sunday No Huddle' which are featured exclusively at Sports Grumblings and 'For Better, For Worse' a weekly feature for SportsIllustrated.
View all articles by Tony Finn
Kouzmanoff has "it" ...
Positional scarcity among third baseman isn’t a problem for fantasy owners. Only the outfield position, which is obviously deeper due to the 3:1 ratio of player personnel, is as copious in projected fantasy points as that of the hot corner.
According to Might Max, Sports Grumblings world famous player prognosticator, the Top-12 third basemen have the highest FFRS (Fantasy Forecast Rankings System) value per player among the infielders.
Depending on the fantasy league format, and the number of players from specific positions, each position takes on it’s own value. For the sake of this argument let’s assume that the rules in a league requires one player from each position and three outfielders; the exact number that make up reality-ball.
The following numbers represent the average FFRS value for each position (taken from the Top-12 infielders and Top-36 outfielders):
| Position |
FFRS Average |
Players Above Average |
| 3B |
410 |
4 |
| SS |
396 |
4 |
| 1B |
389 |
5 |
| OF |
376 |
21 of 36 |
| 2B |
368 |
5 |
| C |
297 |
5 |
Of the four third basemen that have values above the positional average, the Brewers' Ryan Braun presents the most risk. Without a full season under his belt, Braun’s projections lack the complete criteria that Max requires when prognosticating player lines.
1. David Wright
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Ryan Braun
The third base numbers tell us that this is the one position that should be punted for all intent and purpose – but only if one can’t acquire Wright, Rodriguez or Cabrera, especially in structured (serpentine) drafts.
Fantasy owners would be better served filling out their roster with the players at positions that are sparse and have a more imposing personnel disparity from the top of the chart to the average.
It's still early in the hunt to definitively determine the rank and file; but for now, consider this list of third baseman-- the players that will fly under the fantasy radar, offer value above average, and give managers the champions needed to dominate their summer leagues.
1. Edwin Encarnacion – Cincinnati
Encarnacion is never going to win a gold glove, and his early season struggles last year earned him a brief ticket to Triple-A. Encarnacion will be but 25-years-old entering his third full (kind-of) major league season and appears poised to be the run producer and middle of the order hitter most thought he would be a year ago. If the Reds third baseman can carry his strong 2007 August and September into April -- he figures to be a draft day steal anywhere beyond the 10th round.
2. Alex Gordon - Kansas City
Gordon was a major disappointment in 2007. His average draft position will likely be equal to or greater than it was last winter making him a draft day steal. The young third baseman has dual eligibility and at the age of 24 hasn't come close to his prime. While Max projects the Royals' top prospect to be a .265 hitter with 18 HR and 18 stolen bases, these number represent his bottom more than his upside. With any early season (April) success the second-year major leaguer will be a member of the 20/20 club and hit closer to .300 than .265.
3. Kevin Kouzmanoff - San Diego
I write a column and/or blog every year pimping my fantasy baseball avoids, and topping that list is typically hitters that play in Seattle, Los Angeles and San Diego; but Kouzmanoff has "it" and despite taking half of his swings in PETCO Park, he has to be considered a middle round steal. Kouzmanoff got off to a slow start in 2007, hitting a lowly .108 on May 7 -- until finding his stroke in May (.300) and then finished strong with an impressive .380 average in September. Kouzmanoff dominated lefthanders and was successful at PETCO hitting over .275 last year. Absent a sophomore slump, KK should be on your fantasy radar this February and March.
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