Too much hype and a second half fade make J.J. Hardy one to avoid.

What makes a fantasy “bust”? There are several reasons that this writer believes makes the player to be a fantasy bust.

The first is the easiest, age. There is a time when a star player begins his downward decent, statistically. Usually, the first two to three years during their statistical decent, the player will retain most of his fantasy value. Example: Gary Sheffield. Sheffield was a fantasy monster for many years, however, due to his age and his body breaking down (steroids?), he has spent more and more time on the disabled list and subsequently less effective in a fantasy line-up.

The second is injuries. Many players have excellent career futures; however, injuries take over and diminish the player’s value, often times permanently. Example: Troy Glaus. Like Sheffield, Glaus was at one time a fantasy giant. Before the 2003 season, Glaus was a 30-100-100 candidate every season. In 2003, Glaus appeared in only 91 games and it appears unlikely he will ever have the fantasy impact he once had.

The third reason is preseason “over-hype”. Often times a player is considered a “bust” when he has what is deemed a breakout year and becomes all the rage in the preseason. The player then responds by taking your high draft pick at their particular position and making you look like a fool. Example: Felipe Lopez. In 2005, Felipe had what is considered a break-out year. He hit 23 home runs, 97 runs, 85 runs batted in, adding 34 doubles and 5 triples. This statistical output dominates any previous year he had, therefore generating the pre-season buzz about his fantasy value. If you, like me, fell into this trap, then you too had Felipe high on your draft board for second baseman and you too watched as Lopez crashed back to Earth and crushed your hopes of a fantasy title.

Another reason is the “rookie sensation”. Many rookies have come and gone, many of them hyped to be the “next big thing”, only to fall prey to the limelight and intensity that is the major leagues. These players are usually sought to be included in any big post-season trade talks. The player is often highly ranked in their particular organization as well as brought up early and often during spring training. Example: Jeremy Sowers. Sowers was, and still is, hyped to be the one of the next big pitcher to rise from the minor leagues. After the 2007 season had come and gone, Sowers simply did not meet anyone’s expectations, therefore ruining what the “drafting guru” of your league thought was a sure thing.

Additionally, I add the following situations:

• Batters switching Divisions (Often National League to the American League)


• Preceding year from what is deemed a “contract year” where the player plays over his head to get the biggest contract


• Quality player accepts free agent offer for great money on a poor team


• The number three hitter when their protection in the line-up leaves either to free agency or trade


• A pitcher’s second year in a new division when batters have “figured” you out


• Players moving from small market to big market baseball (or the NY/BOS theory)

Here are 15 Busts to think about on draft day.

Catcher - Jorge Posada (NYY): [contract year] Will he be productive? Yes. Will he post a 20-90-90 season? I do not think so. Posada averaged mid-60s in runs, 85 runs batted in and 20 home runs for his career. Like all players heading in to their contract year, Jorge put up outstanding numbers; however, he will be drafted second overall in the catcher’s position, going before catcher Russell Martin and often drafted far earlier than he should be. Do not reach for Posada knowing that you can get equivalent or better overall statistics from Martin. I also believe that the trade for and long-term signing of first baseman Mark Teixeira will elevate the opportunities and play of Brian McCann.

First Base - Carlos Guillen (DET): [Age] Carlos is more of a hunch. Typically, when a player goes from middle to corner infield, increases his strikeouts while decreasing his walk totals, and drops .025 on his batting average, it means two things; There are younger, faster, and more agile players available to replace him and his 24 errors in 2007. It is also an awareness that he is trying to compensate for inadequacy on the field with production at the plate. Take old age, add extra torque on the back, and you have yourself a prime candidate for the disabled list or at least increasingly poor decisions at the plate, dropping his steals, extra base hits (triples), and on base percentage.

Second Base - Jeff Kent (LAD): [Age/Injury] Since 2004, Jeff Kent has been inconsistent, injured, and unable to get back to that 30-100-100 second baseman that he once was. I remember at time when getting Kent was like getting Chase Utley…you were stoked! Now, Kent is a consolation player you draft when you are looking for a good average and better than average pop at the plate, then cross your fingers and pray he plays at least 135 games. At 9.8M, it is my opinion that after the season is over, the team will feel like they were really ripped off. Most people will look to Kent to be there mid-tier back-up choice once the top three are gone. This writer believes you will have more value, fantasy-wise from players like Orlando Hudson, Dustin Pedroia, Aaron Hill, Ian Kinsler, even Rickie Weeks well before Jeff Kent should enter your mind.

Shortstop - J.J. Hardy (MIL): [Hype/Injury] J.J. has always had the power potential and with his 18 home runs in the first half, fantasy managers will use short-sighted decisions and elect to draft him far earlier than he should. Hardy has had major health issues in his first two full seasons. He has also shown that he does not have the sustaining power to rely on him, especially since you need your players to be at their best at the end of the season when the playoffs commence rather than early on when many players are performing well. With players like Khalil Greene, Orlando Cabrera and even Stephen Drew able to give you comparable numbers in runs/runs batted in, more in steals, average, and doubles/triples, the home runs and runs batted in the Hardy provides cannot compare.

Third Base - Troy Glaus (STL): [Injury] Now that Glaus is a Cardinal and likely batting in front of Albert Pujols, his stock will rise in the fantasy world, but not near as high as people will draft him. Like most players who were at the top of their games when the injury bug hit, many fantasy managers will let the 3B position slide to the mid-rounds, hoping to squeak a player like Glaus’ caliber, yet expecting far more than Glaus will deliver. Even with Pujols hitting behind him, Glaus will only give you 25-70-70 at best. With many players hovering around the same numbers, I suggest you go young and quick over older and previous history of quality statistics. Look to a Hank Blalock who has shown promise and coming of an injury or the inconsistent but high-ceiling players like Edwin Encarnacion or undervalued Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals before you call out Troy Glaus’ name on draft day.