Fausto Carmona might have had a great 2007 season, but the hype is too great to make him much of a bargain in 2008.

Outfield - Rick Ankiel (STL): [Over-hype] To be honest, knowing the type of meltdown he had in his pitching career after “blowing up” the competition, only to turn around and “blow himself up”, I am shocked at the level of hype being displayed around the fantasy world. I realize that he had a great little run towards the end of the season, but when you look at the St. Louis line-up, and realize that beyond Albert Pujols, you really only have Ankiel and Glaus. Do you honestly think that Ankiel is worthy of a number # outfielder on any fantasy team at this point? He will have mediocre statistics at best, pushing out 18-20 home runs, 75-85 runs and runs batted in and maybe squeeze out a .275 batting average. Do not be fooled by the dazzle of his story and his wolf in sheep’s clothing statistics of 2007. If you do, you shall surely feel bitten in the end.

Outfield - Aaron Rowand (SF): [Bad Team/Contract Year] it is obvious that although he has been compared to ex-Red Sox outfielder Trot Nixon, it also has occurred too many that he is out for one thing… money. There is no way you sit down, look into the mirror and say…This is a smart move with a team that has an opportunity. No one in their right mind goes to San Francisco this year unless they are out for the almighty check. Rowand has little to no support in San Francisco and he will be relying on his speed and his .300+ batting average to carry him through the 2008 season. He can be a bargain if you can get him after the 18th round, but before that, you are risking fantasy suicide.

Outfield - Vernon Wells (TOR): [No Protection] In 2005, Vernon Wells was on the cusp of fantasy stardom. Then, in 2006, Carlos Delgado left in free agency and the Blue Jays trotted Vernon Wells out the field each day as the team’s go-to-guy in the lineup. He had a great year and people expected even greater things after signing a 126M contract. Add in the fact that he is coming off shoulder surgery; you can see why he will be expected to produce 30-100-100-15. This is unrealistic. Vernon is likely to produce equivalent or less statistics than he had in 2007, likely around 25-80-80-10.

Starting Pitcher - Roy Oswalt (HOU): [Age/Injury] Heading into his eight major league season, this career Top Five fantasy pitcher is heading down a slippery slope. The past three seasons have seen two progressions – diminishing statistics and end of the season arm troubles. Since his back-to-back 20 game seasons, Roy has posted 15 and 14 wins respectively. In each season, innings pitched, games started, and wins have all decreased while his ERA and WHIP are on the rise. Someone in your league will be over-valuing Roy…Just do not be THAT fantasy manager this year.

Starting Pitcher - Ben Sheets (MIL): [Injury] It is sad to think that a pitcher with so much promise cannot stay on the field long enough to amass significant statistics. The Brewers are set to have a big year, meaning even more pressure for the team’s number one pitcher. Sheets has spent at least part of the season on the disabled list in each of the last three seasons. To be honest, he has been over-hyped for nearly six seasons, winning no more than twelve games and only one season with less than a 3.00 ERA.  He will go far earlier than he should because he is on the Brewers and he is their ace.

Starting Pitcher - Chris Young (SD): [Over-hype/Injury] For reasons unknown to me, Chris Young continues to have this “high ceiling” approach to his future. I just do not see it. Nothing in his career leads me to believe that he can be a dominant pitcher who gets 18-20 wins, eats up 200+ innings, and strikes out 190+ batters. Truth is, he does have electric stuff, but has neither the durability nor physique one can count on. The one thing that works to his advantage is that he does play in a pitcher’s park. For a player that has never won more than 12 games, the “experts” still stamp him as a 17-game potential game winner.

Starting Pitcher - Felix Hernandez (SEA): [Over-hype/Injury] Since 2005, there has not been a season that has gone by that I have not heard that Felix was due, was about to break out, and was a draft day sleeper/keeper. I openly admit that he has talent and can light a team up for double-digit strikeouts at any moment; however, the same could be said that he goes 5 innings, gives up 5-7 runs and is relegated to the dugout while his teammates try to scrape out a win. Do not be fooled by the projections for 16+ wins for this third year pitcher who has clearly proven that his name holds more weight on draft day than his statistics do on your weekly roster. Should you draft him? Yes. However, do not look his way until the likes of Aaron Harang, John Maine, and Daisuke Matsuzaka are gone.

Starting Pitcher - Fausto Carmona (CLE): [Over-hype] Fausto is a prime example of the breakout season and media hype. I believe that Fausto WILL be a productive pitcher, filling in nicely at the No. 2 spot in the Indian’s rotation. However, if you think he is an 18-20 game winner, I believe that you are simply going to overspend (salary/auction) or draft too early (rotisserie; H2H). Look to Carmona to go early, but do not fret because you are likely only to get 14-16 wins with 190-200 innings and 140 strikeouts. It may sting to scratch him off the list and not add him to your team roster, but in the end, you will be glad you did. There are far too many pitchers that are going to produce similar numbers that you can grab far later than Carmona will go, instead focusing on creating depth at your batting positions.

Relief Pitcher - Huston Street (OAK): [Poor Team] Let’s face it… if you are a pitcher in the A’s organization and you have a break-out year, beg to be traded so that you can land the big contract before your career blows up in your face. Since the departure of Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, and Barry Zito, these three pitchers have gone onto great contracts and abysmal careers. Add in the likes of Rich Harden and even Huston Streets’ stint on the D/L and you have to start to notice a pattern. In other words, they are overworked, underpaid, and now, unprotected. The day of the A’s and their ability to field consistent teams are long gone and it appears that Street will be heading in the same direction. The A’s have no real offense to speak of, leaving a closer without opportunities. In addition, I believe that Street does not have the durability needed to be a consistent participant in a bullpen.

Relief Pitcher - Jose Valverde (HOU): [Ball Park] Valverde finally showed that he could close. He was able to anchor a pitching staff that ultimately played the biggest role in the Diamondbacks’ playoff run. Unfortunately for Valverde, the Diamondbacks traded him to a hitters’ park in Houston. I think this has a huge impact on a player who finally got his psyche strong enough to close and demonstrate his abilities. To then be traded, and subsequently to “home run alley”, I just do not see him having the mental strength to get it together in ’08.