Akinori Iwamura was not a traditional rookie, but does that mean he will not have a traditional sophomore campaign?

Back in 2005, Aaron Gleeman, of The Hardball Times, analyzed the statistical data of 114 Rookie of the Year winners dating back to 1947, to see if there is any legitimacy to the sophomore jinx, or sophomore slump in baseball. He noted that you might expect a rookie who had a great season to slip a bit in his second year because the course of events that made his season great, like staying healthy, might not recur. There might even be an expectation of regression from an award winning performance. On the other hand, rookies, for the most part, are young players expected to improve with experience. Therefore, their statistics should be better in their second year.

The numbers tell an interesting story, to say the least. Of the 114 rookies, (85 hitters, 29 pitchers) 73 of them or 64%, experienced a decline in Win Shares* during their sophomore seasons. Improvement occurred in 37 (32.5%) of the players, and four (3.5%) repeated their rookie performances. What does all this mean for fantasy managers in 2008?

In general, experts will warn you to avoid drafting rookies for your fantasy team because it is so difficult to predict how they will perform at the Major League level. Second year players have an additional year of statistics to use for projections, but we are still talking about a relatively small sample of numbers, rendering the projections for a sophomore player nearly as difficult to make. In addition, we now have the impact of Gleeman's findings to consider. Given all that, let us take an in-depth look at the rookie class of '07 to see whether we should expect a decline, a repeat performance, or perhaps some growth from them in 2008. This will also help to determine whether the player is a value pick, or if perhaps from a fantasy perspective owners will he is overvalue him in 2008.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Catcher, Texas Rangers – The only question about “Salty” heading into 2008 is whether he will be the starter, or head back to the minors to continue developing his catching skills. The Rangers are committed to him as a catcher and they will not use him at first base as they did last season. Saltalamacchia has 20 home run upside with an average in the .270 range, given a full season of at-bats. Just make sure he has the job before taking him in your draft. Growth

James Loney, First Base, Los Angeles Dodgers – Loney surprised with his power last season, hitting 15 homers in 344 at-bats. He projects as a .300+ hitter, but his underlying statistics suggest that the power spike last season is not sustainable. Loney will maintain the high average, but do not look for more than 15-18 homers this season. Fantasy owners will likely overvalue Loney on draft day because of the power spike, but you know better. So, do not overpay for him of draft day, because those power numbers will not be there this season. Decline

Dustin Pedroia, Second Base, Boston Red Sox – Pedroia is a model of patience at the plate. His peripherals fully support the high batting average (.316) he showed last season. Pedroia is unlikely to develop much power and will probably stroke no more than 10 round-trippers this season. There is every reason to believe that Pedroia will continue to have success and could be among the league leaders in runs scored, hitting atop the Red Sox lineup. Pedroia is batting title waiting to happen in a few years. Repeat

Ryan Braun, Third Base/Outfield, Milwaukee Brewers – Braun narrowly won the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2007 with an impressive combination of power (34 home runs) and speed (15 stolen bases), both of which are very real and very sustainable. However, there are indications that his batting average is a bit inflated, and I would like to see him exhibit a bit more plate patience. That said, Braun is likely to be picked at the end of the first round, or early in the second round of drafts. He could easily hit 40 homers and steal 20 bases, but I expect his average to come down below .300. Repeat

Akinori Iwamura, Second Base/Third Base, Tampa Bay Rays – Before last season, while in Japan, Iwamura was more of a power hitter who averaged 21 home runs per season from 2004 to 2006. Last year for the Rays, he was more of an on-base type hitter, and he ratcheted up his speed game to steal 12 bases, though he was unsuccessful 40% of the time. His batting average declined as the season wore on, a trend that may continue into this season, as his peripherals do not support a high average. That, plus the power outage, diminishes his value and makes Iwamura someone you may want to avoid on draft day, at least until he proves he can make the necessary adjustments to his approach and hit like he did in Japan. Decline