Josh Beckett struggled in his first season in Boston, and was an ace in his second year. Dice-K struggled in his first year in Boston...
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Kevin Kouzmanoff, Third Base, San Diego Padres – “The Crushin' Russian” did not crush much in the first half of the 2007 season, but came on strong in the second half, batting .317 after the All Star break and hitting 11 of his 18 homers. He projects as a .280 hitter with 25 home run potential, mostly because his expansive home field, Petco Park, will limit him. His 2007 production is pretty much what you should expect going forward. Repeat
Troy Tulowitzki, Shortstop, Colorado Rockies – Tulowitzki gave Ryan Braun a run for his money for the ROY award, and many felt that Tulowitzki is the more complete player because of his stellar defense. He put up solid, if uneven, numbers through the season, and surprised many experts with his power. He's a better long-term bet who will struggle to duplicate what he did this past season. Do not overpay this year. Decline
Delmon Young, Outfield, Minnesota Twins – Young needed a change of scenery, now the question is – will the Twins help him to change his approach at the plate? He has all kinds of crazy upside and power to burn, but lacks the plate discipline and pitch selectivity to break out at the major league level so far. He showed improvement in the second half, and given his monster potential really has nowhere to go but up. Fantasy owners are likely to undervalue him, making him potentially a good bargain. Growth
Hunter Pence, Outfield, Houston Astros – The Astros finally gave Pence his shot and he did not disappoint. He hit the ground running right from his debut, and had he not fractured his wrist he would have waltzed off with the ROY honors. I am a little worried about his low walk rate and free-swinging habits, but I do not doubt his ability to hit for power with a high average. Could be a 30/30 player as early as this year. Growth
Matt Kemp, Outfield, Los Angeles Dodgers – The problem with Kemp has been inconsistent at-bats under manager Grady Little. How things go for Kemp this season will rest with how Joe Torre uses him and Andre Ethier in the LA outfield. Given regular at bats, Kemp looks like a 30/30 player someday, but for now he is a better bet for speed with regular power coming along in another year or so. Kemp's skill stats show a bit of luck was at work last season when he hit .342, so expect that to normalize closer to .300 this year. Decline
Daisuke Matsuzaka, Starting Pitcher, Boston Red Sox – All the fanfare and hype that surrounded Boston's $103 million dollar man turned out to be right on target. Dice-K performed just about as expected in his first year in MLB. He faded quite badly as the season wore on, as his ERA and WHIP both rose considerably. His command numbers indicated some underlying problems as well. Watch him closely this spring. If he starts strong, then he is a strong buy candidate. If he struggles with his command, then last year's fade could be a warning that his innings pitched history is catching up with him. Repeat
Matt Garza, Starting Pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays – Garza has all the makings of a fine pitcher. His command stats are strong, and he has shown steady improvement. At age 24, he has all kinds of upside. The trade to Tampa means he will have to face the Yankees and Red Sox more often this season, but he has the tools to compete, and Tampa is improving overall as a team. His losing record last season will cause him to likely go for less than he will be worth; however, he is someone you will want to jump all over. Growth
Philip Hughes, Starting Pitcher, Yankees – An inconsistent debut year, and an injury in his near-no hit game, make Hughes a bit of an enigma. Everything about his history in the minors indicates that he will be a dominant pitcher and staff ace for the Yankees, perhaps as soon as this year. He is the total package, with excellent command and control, along with a diverse repertoire of pitches he can throw at any time for strikes. The key for Hughes will be staying healthy. Look for a big year from Hughes in '08, but be aware that everyone else will too, driving up his price. Growth
Yovani Gallardo, Starting Pitcher, Milwaukee Brewers – “Vani” is my sleeper pick for the Cy Young award this season, but please do not tell anybody. He has all the makings of a dominant strikeout pitcher and a skill set that indicates he is ready to bust out. He had a couple of rough outings last season that drove his numbers up and that may cause owners to overlook him on draft day. Gallardo has 20 win, sub 3.00 ERA upside and should average a strikeout per inning. Growth
Tim Lincecum, Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants – The only thing that makes Lincecum an unattractive fantasy target is his team. The Giants are shaping up to be the worst team in the NL aside from the Pirates. That said, Lincecum has the skill set to be dominant and will continue to strikeout hitters in bunches. Just do not expect many wins, as he is likely to get uneven run support from his offense. Repeat
*Win Shares – A complex statistical formula invented by Bill James that ends up producing one number as a measure of a player's offensive and defensive contributions to his team's wins.