The big story of the Reds' offseason was - will Adam Dunn stay or will he go? He's staying, but does it matter?
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Where Are They Coming From
Since the 2002 season, the Cincinnati Reds have only won 80 games once, in 2006. With Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo as the No. 1 and 2 starters, the organization, the Cincinnati faithful, even the team managers across the fantasy world anticipated equal or better win totals to come from these starters and the team as a whole. Sadly, this was not the case as the team totaled a meager 72 wins in 2007.
Bronson Arroyo’s “freshness” factor in a new league, the lack of starting depth, the pitiable strength of the bullpen, and the poor plate presence of the team as a whole lent itself to another disappointing season in the city of Cincinnati.
With the age of the staff showing through injuries and an overall lack of long-term durability, the team spent much of the season calling up and returning minor league players to sustain a full line-up and attempt to “entertain” the ticket holders in Ohio.
Players Added
The team made an early free-agent splash by quickly signing ex-Milwaukee Brewer closer Francisco Cordero to a four-year, $46M contract. Inclusive in the deal is a club option for a fifth year, barring Cordero passing a physical exam. The 32-year-old closer brings 177 saves in nine seasons while wearing a Tigers, Rangers, and Brewers uniform.
On January 23, 2008, the organization signed another reliever, this time it was ex-Colorado Rockies pitcher Jeremy Affeldt. Jeremy and the Reds have agreed to a one-year, $3M contract and while likely contend for a spot in the starting rotation, although he appeared to be more affective as a relief pitcher, having an 8-17 record with an ERA of 5.41 as a starter (All American League starts). With so many young arms contending for a starting spot, it is as likely that he could start as well as work out of the bullpen. It will all come down to where the organization needs him most.
An interesting pick-up is first baseman Andy Phillips. Phillips was considered a “high ceiling” minor league player in the Yankee’s organization for many years and personally found it shocking that the released him at the end of the 2007 season. When you consider that Jason Giambi, recently acquired utility infielder Wilson Betemit, and young up-and-comer Shelley Duncan are all ahead of the often-injured Phillips, it makes complete business sense; however, I believe that the Yankees’ could have signed him to a reasonable and tradable contract and received some value in the form of minor league prospects. The Reds gave a minor league contract with a spring training invitation. He will likely be sent to their Triple-A affiliate but he is great insurance if Scott Hatteberg is injured and the team’s young hope at first base, Joey Votto, finds himself struggling early.
As the Rule 5 Draft forces organizations to keep the players they draft on the active roster, I feel it is important to mention the two players the Reds’ organization selected in the 2007/2008 Rule 5 Draft.
On the first day (12/06/07), the Reds selected pitcher Sergio Valenzuela from the Atlanta Braves. At 23-years old, this 6-foot, 175-pound right-handed pitcher has a minor league record of 6-13, with an ERA of 5.61 with 5.00/K9 and 3.13/BB9. Sergio posted a record of 0-2 with a 3.79 ERA with 12 strikeouts in 35 Innings in the Dominican Winter League.
On Day Two, the team selected RHP Justin James from the Toronto Blue Jays’ organization. With a 19-25 career minor league record and a 3.50 ERA, James seems like the better of the two picks even if he was picked later than Valenzuela. Another comparative statistic that further verifies my claim is the 7.30/K9 to 2.61/BB9 that James has had since his NCAA debut with Missouri in 2002.
Players Lost
As the team tries to shed itself of the “age” factor, we see many players exiting the organization, seeking employment elsewhere; Some have found new homes while others have yet to agree to a deal or have not received one to accept.
Of the notable ex-Reds who remain free agents, third baseman Mark Bellhorn and starting pitcher Eric Milton are the two names that people will likely know. Milton has made several appearances in a Reds uniform and has steadily decreased his production with each stint. Bellhorn, on the other hand, has had no impact on major league rosters or fantasy rosters since his playing days with the Boston Red Sox.
There have been several players who have had employment opportunities and have agreed to major and minor league contracts. Relief pitchers Eddie Guardado and Kirk Saarloos have found new homes via free agency; Guardado has signed with the Texas Rangers while Saarloos has found an opportunity with the Athletics.
Once productive, utility infielder Jorge Cantu came and went from the Reds without making the splash that he had hoped he could make, trying to match his 2005 statistical output with the Tampa Bay Rays. Another Florida team has taken a chance on Jorge as the Marlins have offered him a minor league contract with a spring training invite.
The biggest name to leave the Cincinnati Reds is outfielder Josh Hamilton. Four days before Christmas (12/21/07), the Cincinnati Reds offered and agreed to a deal with the Texas Rangers, sending Hamilton south to Texas while adding outstanding right-handed pitcher Edinson Volquez who will compete for a spot in the starting rotation this coming season, and left-handed pitcher Danny Herrera.
Due to the lack of depth on their pitching rosters and the wealth of outfielders the organization had, the Reds management staff made a decision to rely on the bat and fielding of Jay Bruce, Norris Hopper, and Chris Dickerson to work with and back up veteran outfielders Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, and utility player and pre-season projected starting centerfielder, Ryan Freel.
Moves Still To Come
As the market for free agents has been all but tapped and the plethora of young major leaguers and quality minor league players likely to populate the 2008 active and 40-man roster, it appears that the organization is done adding players from outside the organization. Now begins the difficult task of properly assessing the skills of their organization and put together the most productive and competitive team they can fro the 2008 season.
As stated in my December 22, 2007 article, The Year in Review – Cincinnati Reds, I believe that now is the time to unload OF Adam Dunn. When you look at his cumulative statistics for any year since 2004, you will find statistics that would make you say that trading Dunn is a ridiculous notion. For every player that outputs 40 home runs, 100 runs, 100 runs batted in, and 100 base on balls, there are 25 overpaid players producing 25-85-85-60. However, what this team needs more than anything is additional depth in their minor league system and a leader with plate presence and not a deep swing of the bat away from a long-term back injury.
Although Dunn averages 100 base-on-balls, the vast majority of them are intentional, limiting wait he brings to the line-up, as far as protection as well as production. If that was not enough of an argument, I pose to you the “consistency” factor. Adam does have outstanding statistics, however, they come is spurts, often following great offensive statistics with a slew of strikeouts (185/year average) and an abysmal .248 lifetime average. To put that into perspective, Andruw Jones had only one season that came close to Dunn’s career batting average and he was all but shunned from the fantasy world and nearly from the major leagues, waiting almost two months into free agency before receiving his first contract offer.
What to Watch in Spring Training
This is going to be exciting Spring Training if you are a Cincinnati Reds’ fan. There is so much young talent and so few roster spots considered “settled” that each day, each web-blog, each piece of sports news is going to be with investing in.
Take for instance, the “buzz” that is surrounding first baseman Joey Votto. With only 84 at bats in 2007, Joey Votto smashed home four home runs, seven doubles, 27 hits overall, 11 runs, and 17 runs batted in. Votto accumulated all these statistics while maintaining a .321 batting average, slugging .548, and even swiping a stolen base. If you do not think that Scott Hatteberg is sweating in Cincy, you are dead wrong.
Add in the excitement of the outfield. Beyond Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. (barring injury), there is arguably a five-way battle for the starting centerfield position. Outstanding centerfielder Jay Bruce (26 HR, 46 Doubles, .319 BA in limited 2007 major league action), nine-year minor league veteran Norris Hopper, veteran utility player Ryan Freel, and Chris Dickerson.
The Bullpen is something that will be the focus of everyone, from the fair-weather fan, to the ownership. All will rest a little easier with the Francisco Cordero inked in as the closer, regardless of his late season injury last year and the fact that he is 32-years old. In all likelihood, David Weathers will assume what appears to be his natural position, as the setup man, and if a few of the young starting pitchers can step up and secure a spot, the team would much rather have Jeremy Affeldt come out of the bullpen than rely on him to start games. The bullpen also has a couple of arms that will fill in nicely to the projected 7th, 8th, and 9th inning system of Affeldt, Weathers, and Cordero.
Entering his second year, right-handed pitcher Jared Burton has sworn to increase pitch control and durability while working hard to decrease his waist-size, making him more dependable to run out there and try and match his 2.51 ERA from 2007. Also, keep an eye out for Tom Shearn. Although called up for only limited play in the 2007 season, Shearn showed great promise, earning a 3-0 record in seven games, however his short stint was due to the eight “dingers” he gave up in only 32 innings. One other pitcher of note is RHP Justin Lehr, offered a spring training invite. At present, Lehr is carrying an 8-1 record with an ERA of 2.86 and 41Ks in 72 Innings of work in the Winter Dominican League.
Eight pitchers make the list as potential starters for the 2008 rotation. Obviously Aaron Harang, and, less obvious, Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey, are secure to land a starting spot.
Of the pitchers that remain, only Matt Belisle and Jeremy Affeldt have any true experience as a starting pitcher in the major leagues; The other candidates being the organization’s top pitching prospect (Homer Bailey being considered a major leaguer), Johnny Cueto, and, to a lesser degree, prospects Edinson Volquez and Matt Maloney.
With the top-heavy projections for the starting rotation, it is likely that one of the young prospects that are in line for the No. 4 and No. 5 spot in the rotation (or even going with a six-man rotation to start the season) while end up assisting in the bullpen.
Of the starting pitchers that while likely be relegated to the minors, it would not be shocking to see either Matt Maloney or even more likely Edinson Volquez end up in a bullpen role.
When all is said and done, it is likely that half of the 25-man roster will consists of players with little more than a year’s worth of experience and that should make for some interesting baseball in Cincinnati for the 2008 season.
