Matt Capps is the anchor for the Pirates heading into 2008.

Baltimore Orioles
Rank: 30
Closer: Jamie Walker or Chad Bradford
Closer in Waiting: Loser of the Spring Training battle
Confidence Level in Closer: 0%

The Baltimore Orioles only won 69 games last year, seven losses away from 100. By the looks of their current bullpen, odds are they will have no problem getting to 100 losses or more in 2008.

To make matters even worse, their closer last year, Chris Ray, is likely to miss significant portions of 2008 season, if not the season in its entirety, following major surgery on his right elbow. Come Spring Training, this should be primarily a two-man race for the closer spot between Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford, their two best 2007 relievers, besides Ray.

The good news is that in 2007, both finished in the top ten in holds in the American League. Both also had solid, if not spectacular, WHIP and ERA numbers: 1.21 & 3.23 for Walker and 1.44 and 3.34 for Bradford. The bad news is both are well on the wrong side of 30, Walker is 36, while Bradford is a solid 33 years young. Furthermore, in their extended professional careers, neither has ever been a full-time closer.

Given their lack of experience, a couple other relief pitchers on the roster, Scott Williamson and Danys Baez, who posted worse 2007 numbers, should also get a chance for the closer spot. Both have experience as a team’s primary closer. Williamson filled the role for the Reds multiple seasons, including 1999, where he won the NL Rookie of the Year award. Despite only pitching in 16 games last year, Williamson did have an impressive 10.93 K/9. Baez was the closer for the Rays in 2005, when he had 41 saves and 2.86 ERA.

Overall, things look bleak for the non-starting Orioles pitchers. Regardless of who ends up being their closer, they will be leading the worst bullpen in Major League baseball.

Tampa Bay Rays
Rank: 29
Closer: Troy Percival
Closer in Waiting: Al Reyes
Confidence Level in Closer: 5%

Another AL East cellar-dweller, Tampa Bay, is putting their faith in an older reliever, signing Troy Percival to a two-year, $8 million deal. This follows an impressive 2007 season with the Cardinals where he had a career-best 1.80 ERA and an amazing .85 WHIP. It was especially notable considering that Percival sat out the entire 2006 season, and in 2005 had a 5.76 ERA for the Tigers.

Percival was the Angels’ closer for closer seasons before ceding the job to Francisco Rodriguez. He averaged roughly 35 saves per year during that stretch, his best season coming in 2002 where he had 40 saves and a 1.92 ERA. All of those states are relatively moot, however, considering Percival is now 38 years old and has not been a full time closer for over three years.

How will Percival fare in 2008? I would look for a mid-three ERA, and maybe 30 saves. Given his advanced age, his risks of injury, and the substantial decline in ability before his spectacular 2007 season, our confidence level here is not high at all.

Behind Percival, the Rays have another gray beard, 37-year-old Al Reyes. Reyes was not horrible last year, with a 4.9 ERA, 26 saves, and a strong 10.38 K/9. Gary Glover and Dan Wheeler are the other two Rays relief pitchers likely to see a lot of action.

Overall, given how much they paid for Percival, it will likely go down as a good move. Given how old he and Reyes are, the youthful Rays have a lot of work to do in their bullpen before they can even think of capitalizing on all their offensive talent.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Rank: 28
Closer: Matt Capps
Second in Line: Dámaso Marté
Confidence Level in Closer: 12%

Finally, we get to a team not relying on players born in the Disco Era to be the backbone of their bullpen. The Pirates closer will be 24 year-old Matt Capps. Filling the role for the first time last season, Capps had 18 saves, with a 2.28 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. The Georgia native will rely on his mid-90s fastball and excellent command to probably post better numbers this summer.

He is extremely young and unproven, however, and players like that typically take at least a small step back after their first successful season. Setting up Capps, the Pirates have Dámaso Marté. Marté averaged 10.13 K/9 and had a career-best 2.38 ERA last season. Although he served as a co-closer for two of his four seasons in Chicago, with 10 and 11 saves respectively in those two seasons, Marté has never been given the opportunity to be the sole closer of a club. His numbers last year, as well as in those two seasons as co-closer, indicate that he could do the job if called upon to do so.

Other Pirate relievers who will log significant innings are Shawn Chacon and John Grabow.

Overall, things could be worse for the Pirates. As it stands now, they are putting a lot of faith in Capps. He hast the talent to reward them, but given his lack of proven success, it is probably better to take a wait and see approach with him.