Which version are the Brewers getting - the dominant Rangers' closer or the dead on arrival pitcher from the Red Sox?

Houston Astros
Rank: 24
Closer: Jose Valverde
Second in Line: Doug Brocail or Oscar Villarreal or Brian Moehler
Confidence Level in Closer: 30%

Fresh off a stunning 2007 season where he led the majors in saves with 47 and helped lead his underdog squad into the NLCS, Jose Valverde was traded by the Diamondbacks to the Astros. You may be wondering why Arizona would make such a move with their 28-year-old closer.

At least part of the answer is that as recently as the season prior, Valverde was struggling so bad that the Diamondbacks had to demote him to the minors to figure things out. He did end up correcting his 2006 ERA of 5.84 ERA in 2007, where he had a 2.66 ERA and 1.12 WHIP; however, you cannot blame Arizona management for wondering when his next breakdown would come.

That said, I think the Astros made a good move in picking up Valverde. He will not lead the majors in saves again, but he still is young and has enough tools to be a top 10 closer in the game. Even if his skills stayed the same, given that Houston’s team is significantly worse than Arizona’s, his save totals will inevitably fall due to lack of opportunities.

Behind Valverde, things look rough for the team. Competing for the set up role will be a trio, which if they were a musical group, would not crack Billboard’s top 1000. 40-year-old Doug Brocail, the early favorite, and 36-year-old Brian Moehler are each coming off their best full seasons since 1998. Brocail had 10 holds, a 1.17 WHIP and a 3.05 ERA, while Moehler had a 1.41 WHIP and a 4.07 ERA. Houston traded for 25-year-old Oscar Villarreal, the infant of the group, who could improve on last season’s 1.4 WHIP and 4.24 ERA.

Cincinnati Reds
Rank: 23
Closer: Francisco Cordero
Second in Line: Jared Burton or David Weathers
Confidence Level in Closer: 20%

The domino-playing Cordero should have no problem “knocking them down” in Cincinnati this season. Signed from division rival Milwaukee, Cordero will utilize his upper-90’s fastball and slider to try to improve on his 2007 numbers. Named to the All-Star team last year, he put up a 1.11 WHIP and 2.98 ERA on his way to 44 saves.

Challenging for the set up role will be a pair at the opposite ends of their careers. One is David Weathers, the 38-year-old who is aging like a fine French wine. Coming off the best three-year stretch of his career; in 2007, he had 33 saves for the Reds with a 1.21 WHIP and 3.59 ERA. The challenger is 26-year-old sophomore Jared Burton. Burton had 11 holds last summer with a 2.51 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

Even though Burton had better numbers, aside from the saves, last season, Weathers has to be the favorite to be the set-up man. Burton is the Reds closer of the future, but for the present, Cordero and Weathers will handle all the important innings.

Milwaukee Brewers
Rank: 22
Closer: Éric Gagné
Second in Line: Derrick Turnbow
Confidence Level in Closer: 18%

One would think a team signing a guy who over a three year stretch averaged 50 saves, and who holds the NL record for saves in a season would be heralded as the biggest move of the off-season. Unfortunately its 2008 now, four years removed from Gagné’s last dominating season and three years after his Tommy John surgery.

In 2007, Gagné was able, for the first time, to handle a somewhat regular workload, but generally, a pitcher is not back to normal until their second year back pitching after TJ surgery. After coming off the disabled list to start the year he pitched strongly for Texas, with a 2.16 ERA in 34 games, converting 16 of 17 saves. Boston traded for him partway through the year, and he did not do so hot for them. His ’07 numbers averaged out to a 1.35 WHIP and 3.81 ERA.

Those would be good numbers for many other relievers, but Gagné’s past dominance has meant that good for most, means bad by his standards, especially considering he clearly was not himself and the Red Sox barely used him on their World Series march.

Complicating matters further is that Gagné’s name appeared in the infamous Mitchell Report. The years in question coincide with Gagne’s record-breaking three-year stretch, so it has to give some credence to the possibility that, without help, he will never get to those levels again.

So, what return exactly will the Brewers get from their one year, $10 million investment?

Considering Gagné pitched well to start last year when steroids testing was in place, and that he is returning to the National League, where he had his previous best years, things look good. Keeping in mind his advancing age, 32 now, and that some pitchers are just never the same following major surgery, things look bad.

Balancing everything out, I would look for Gagne’s ERA to be a little lower than his career average of 3.32, closer to 3, and for him to save around 30 games. He will not be dominant, but he will be one of the better closers in the NL.

As to who will be setting up Gagné, three newcomers will joust for the spot: David Riske (1.26 WHIP, 2.45 ERA in 2007), Guillermo Mota (1.41 WHIP, 5.47 ERA) and Salomon Torres [1.41 WHIP, 5.47 ERA]. Riske had a career year in 2007, Mota may be able to regain the magic he had previously setting up Gagné in LA (1.97 ERA in 2003) and Torres as part of a closer by rotation has had 12 saves each over the past two years for Pittsburgh.

While all three of these pitchers are solid additions to a bullpen, none are overly impressive, and that is why I expect Derrick Turnbow, already on the roster, to win the set-up spot. At 30, Turnbow is younger than any of the new additions, and is the only with previous full-time closer experience. In 2005, he had 39 saves and a 1.74 ERA, and he was an All-Star in 2006. Turnbow did eventually lose the closing job to Francisco Cordero, but he definitely has the stuff to be a top-flight set-up man.

At the end of the day, the Brewers have many question marks in their pen. Depending on the answers to those questions, they could be one of the best groups in the NL.