Will the improvements in Queens net Billy the Kid more saves?
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New York Mets
Rank: 10
Closer: Billy Wagner
Second in Line: Aaron Heilman
Confidence Level in Closer: 55%
In 2007, five-time All-Star Billy Wagner does what he does every year: put up an ERA around 2.50, and save around 35 games. Given that he has been doing it for a decade now, I would say it is reasonable to expect the same performance from his this summer.
I know he is 35, but dominant pitchers of his caliber tend to age quite well. In addition, now that he has the best pitcher in baseball for a teammate, his opportunities for saves will increase.
Taking care of the innings leading up to Wagner’s ninth inning, are Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, and Ambiorix Burgos. Heilman and Feliciano are reliable, but not great, relief pitchers. Both should have earned run averages around 3.00 and WHIP ratios around 1.10 as they did last season.
Burgos, aside from having quite possibly the coolest name in sports, is the only relatively unproven member of the group. His first two years in the majors he did not show much, but last summer his numbers – 3.42 ERA, 1.099 WHIP – were solid. Given that he is only 23, expect him to improve on those in 2008.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Rank: 9
Closer: Tony Pena or Brandon Lyon or Chad Qualls
Second in Line: Tony Pena or Brandon Lyon or Chad Qualls
Confidence Level in Closer: TBD
Despite losing the major league leader in saves in Jose Valverde, Arizona still ranks in the top ten on the strength of their overall bullpen. Who will close for them will be the biggest story of their Spring Training.
There seems to be five candidates for the job: Chad Qualls, Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, Juan Cruz, and Doug Slaten. All five are under 30, and none had an ERA higher than 3.30. As an ensemble, then, they are one of the best in the majors.
In modern baseball, however, having a dominant closer is necessary to be the type of team Arizona wants to become this summer. It’s hard to say, but at this stage I would put my money on Lyon. He’s the only one with even limited experience in the role: in 2005, he had 14 saves, and he had the best ’07 numbers (2.68 ERA, 1.243 WHIP).
That said, a lot could change between now and opening day. If I were a betting man, I would say this race is too close to call.
Washington Nationals
Rank: 8
Closer: Chad Cordero
Second in Line: Jon Rauch
Confidence Level in Closer: 50%
Despite only being 25, Cordero enters the 2008 season as one of the more established closers in the game. He has averaged 38 saves per summer over the past three, and he made the All-Star game by the time he was only 23.
He has not quite been able to regain the dominating form of the 2005 season where he had a 1.82 ERA, 0.969 WHIP and 47 saves. However, he has still been quite solid, and given his youth and that he still has not technically entered his prime yet, I think there’s a real good chance his 2008 numbers will be closer to those of 2005 than the two years in between.
Jon Rauch will setup for Cordero. Last year he had a 3.61 ERA, 1.099 WHIP and 33 holds. His WHIP was the lowest of his career. For the past few seasons, he has been teetering on the edge of being an above average player. He has not quite done enough to be great. We will see if he can break through in 2008.
While he has not returned to the dominant form he possessed before his injuries, Luis Ayala was quite solid for the Nationals last season, with a record of 2-2 and a 3.19 ERA in 44 appearances, with 28 strikeouts and 12 walks in 42 1/3 innings.
Jesus Colome was a closer of the future in Tampa Bay, but that future never arrived. Still, he has turned into a solid bullpen arm for the Nationals, and he was 5-1 with a 3.82 ERA in 61 appearances, with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 43:27 in 66 innings.
One other arm to watch belongs to Chris Schroder, who was impressive in his second season with the Nationals. Schroder was 2-3 with a 3.18 ERA in 37 appearances, and he struck out 43 while walking only 15 in 45 1/3 innings.
