How much has the Reds' rushing Homer Bailey set him back?

Pitchers

Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox – The Red Sox have not had great success at developing starting pitchers over the last couple of decades, with Roger Clemens being the last true No. 1 starter. That was not exactly yesterday. Buchholz is about to break the Sox out of that streak. Buchholz held opposing batters in 2007 to a .180 batting average in Double-A, a .221 batting average in Triple-A, and a .184 batting average against in the majors. He also posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 171:35 while in the minors and 22:10 in his 22 2/3 innings in the bigs. Oh, and there was that no-hitter too.

Joba Chamberlain, New York Yankees – Chamberlain’s rise though the Yankees system in 2007 was meteoric, as he started in the Florida State League and he finished pitching in the playoffs. Chamberlain held both minor league and major league batters to a sub-Mendoza Line batting average, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio in the bigs was an absurd 34:6. Chamberlain is going to start for the Yankees soon enough, but he might begin the season in the pen. Regardless of role, he will have value.

Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds – Bailey has spectacular stuff; there is no doubt about that. The problem, however, is the immense need that the Reds have forced Bailey into a situation he was likely not quite ready for. He will be ready soon enough, and he should be dominating when he gets there, but there are going to be many lumps along the way.

Adam Miller, Cleveland Indians – The talent has always been there, but injuries and ineffectiveness when healthy have gotten in the way. We want to think that he will work things out and that he has the stuff still to be a front-of-the-rotation starter, but there is a little hesitancy here.

Ian Kennedy, New York Yankees – Do not get us wrong – we love Kennedy, his stuff, and his potential. However, the hype surrounding him is simply over the top right now, and his being a Yankee is a big part of that. He will have a very solid career, but he will do so as a No. 3 starter, not a No. 1 or No. 2 as some seem to think. In other words, Andy Pettitte, not Roger Clemens, but that is still darned good.

Franklin Morales, Colorado Rockies – After striking out 179, and walking just 89, in 154 innings in 2006 in High-A, Morales was moved up to Double-A to open the 2007 season. He would stay there for just 17 games before a promotion to Triple-A. His stint there would be even briefer, as he hung around Colorado Springs for just three games before his promotion to the majors. While the fast rise is promising, there were negatives, as his control numbers suffered, and he had serious issues with staying deep into starts in the bigs, as in eight starts he had just 39 1/3 innings.

Radhames Liz, Baltimore Orioles – Before all the trading of this offseason, it had looked as if Liz would have a shot to return to the rotation in 2008. However, it looks now like he will return to the minors and get in some time at Triple-A, where he can refine his skills. His Double-A numbers were spectacular – 11-4, 3.22 ERA, 161:70 K/BB, .204 batting average against – and there is plenty of reason to believe he can do similar, or better in Triple-A. Next time he pitches in the bigs, he will be ready, and he should be an ace.

Luke Hochevar, Kansas City Royals – Immediately after signing, the hype was that the Royals finally had their No. 1 starter. Whether that will be the case though has yet to be determined – his strikeout-to-walk numbers in the minors in 2007 were very good, but his other numbers left questions. His future rotation spot looks more like middle than front, but the potential is there for him to prove us wrong.

Eric Hurley, Texas Rangers – We have a pitching-desperate franchise, and we have a pitcher here with a career strikeout-to-walk ratio in the minors of 460:167. A first rounder out of high school in 2004, the now-22-year-old Hurley should spend a little more time back in Triple-A, but he will not stay there for long.

Alan Horne, New York Yankees – Horne’s Tommy John surgery pushed him down significantly in the draft, and the Yankees took advantage of that. His return from surgery took a little bit, but he was better than ever in 2007, going 12-4 with a 3.11 ERA and a 165:57 K/BB in 153 1/3 innings in Double-A. The plethora of young arms already up for the Yankees will give Horne a little extra time in Triple-A in 2008, but he will be up soon enough.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers – Potentially the best pitcher on this list, there is almost next to no chance that Kershaw is up in the bigs this year as the Dodgers are in no mood to rush their 2006 first rounder, especially considering how many pitching arms of late they have damaged by rushing them. Kershaw will not even be 20 until March, yet he is already putting up eye-popping numbers, such as a 217:72 K/BB ratio in 159 innings in the minors so far.

David Price, Tampa Bay Rays – Like the Dodgers, the Rays have been burned by rushing arms, so they will want to show a little patience with their 2007 first round selection, first overall, but he is a very polished college pitcher and might not need much. Look for him to make a token appearance in the majors in 2008, with the chance to stick in 2009.

Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds – Between three different leagues in 2007, Cueto struck out 170 and walked only 34 in 161 1/3 innings. Sweet numbers, but there was still more to come, as he would head down to the Dominican, where in 31 2/3 innings, Cueto has 37 strikeouts and only 7 walks. Cueto showed that Double-A was no challenge for him last year, so look for him to open in Triple-A this year, moving to the majors at some point during the season.

Gio Gonzalez, Oakland Athletics – Hopefully, Gio rents, and on short-term leases, as it seems like the White Sox general manager, Kenny Williams, likes nothing more than either trading for or trading away Gonzalez. Now with the Athletics, Gonzalez should start out in Sacramento, but he will be pitching by the bay before the season is over.