Key Statistic: Despite leading the
National League in runs scored, and the theatrics of Ryan Howard, the
Phillies lacked the presence of a front-line starter needed to compete for the
division. After finishing three games out of the wild-card race, GM Pat Gillick
went out and traded for RH Freddy Garcia, and signed RH Adam Eaton
to shore up the pitching staff.
Gillick did again what he
does best, acquiring the necessary talent to build a winning franchise. This is
very much the same concept he used in Toronto
and Seattle,
two organizations he was very successful with. Ranking 14th in the league in
2006 in Starters ERA (5.08), the addition of Garcia in exchange for RH Gavin
Floyd, and the signed RH Eaton are an upgrade over the 2006 staff.
Key Additions: C Rod Barajas, 3B Wes
Helms, OF Jayson Werth, RH Antonio Alfonseca, RH Adam Eaton, RH Freddy Garcia.
Key Losses: C Mike Lieberthal, IF Alex
S. Gonzalez, OF Jeff Conine, OF David Dellucci, RH Gavin Floyd, LH Randy Wolf.
IN THE FIELD
Projected Lineup
- Jimmy Rollins, SS
- Shane Victorino, RF
- Ryan Howard, 1B
- Chase Utley, 2B
- Pat Burrell, LF
- Aaron Rowand, CF
- Wes Helms, 3B
- Rod Barajas, C
CATCHER: Rod Barajas should
be a last resort for production on fantasy draft day. When he gets plate
appearances he's a solid option in the power department, but his problem lies
in his inability to take a walk. Over the last three seasons combined, he's
held a poor 4.6% BB rate, while striking out at a 15.2% clip. If you're
thinking about drafting Barajas and his career high OBA of .306 -- don't.
FIRST BASE: Conversely, the first
base option for the Phillies is anti-Barajas.
Ryan Howard is a beast to
say the least. Since he came onto the MLB scene in 2004, the percentage of
strikes thrown to him has declined from 63% to 57%, and after last years 58 HR
total, expect this trend to continue. Why would you even pitch to this guy? Sure,
he strikes out more than fantasy owners would like, but he also walked over 100 times last season and
when he does make contact, he does so with Gary Sheffield-like bat
speed. That's the only way to describe his BABIP the last three years (.375,
.358, .363).
Howard ranks as one of the
better hitters in the league, and enters his prime at age 27 this season.
SECOND BASE: Remember back when the
Phillies wouldn't give Chase Utley at-bats over Placido Polanco,
that seems like a crude joke these days. Utley has done everything the team has
asked and more since becoming the everyday starter. He is head and shoulder
above the rest of the second basemen in the league. Utley averaged an XBH
every 10.3 plate appearances in '06, while walking 9.7% during that period. His
double digit stolen base potential makes him a top fantasy option and a first
round lock in most formats. Hitting behind Howard also means more RBI
opportunities which will translate into another 100 plus RBI season.
THIRD BASE: Helms has recorded
(.814, .965, respectively) OPS' over the last two years making him worthy of a
full-time playing status, especially in a city that has watched David Bell on a
daily basis. Helms' BB ratios are good, and his patience at the plate has
improved. The percentage of times Helms swings at first pitches has decreased
from a 43% in 2002 to a modest 25% last season, while his contact rate has
steadily risen from 71%, to a very healthy 77% in '06.
SHORTSTOP: Though he's the older of
the two, Jimmy Rollins is a poor
man's Jose Reyes. He can steal
bases, hit for average, and pound for pound has a favorable power stroke.
He had an XBH once every 10.4 plate appearances, and has posted a SLG% over
.450 twice in the last three seasons. Though his BB/K ratio is average (0.71),
and has never posted an OBA of over .350, he has posted three straight seasons
with both average and RISP registering over .300. A healthy Rollins is a lock for 30 SB, 700
PA, another 60 XBH, and a healthy Win Shares mark in the mid 20's. He's one of
the top fantasy options at shortstop heading into the 2007 season and isn't likely to be availble beyond the fourth round in mixed formats.
OUT IN THE GRASS
LEFTFIELD: I like Pat Burrell,
I've always liked him, and he never has gotten enough credit for anything he
does, there I said it. It's out there in the open. He's patient, he always
posts very good HR/F ratios, and the last three seasons he's posted OPS' of
.820 or better. His batting averages will depend heavily on how lucky he gets
during the course of the year, but seem healthy in the range of .265-.270.I
know Gillick is looking to trade his monstrous contract, but truthfully, he's
the only right handed power bat in the lineup, and they need him in there as
often as possible.
CENTERFIELD: Aaron Rowand is a
blue-collar player in a blue-collar city. He has an attitude and playing style
that is endearing to most baseball fans. But offensively, his power numbers are
less than desirable. Armed with one of the worst BB/K ratios (0.28 the last 3
years combined) among starters in the league, his power numbers just don't
match up with this peripheral. As well, his rate of stolen base success has
declined each of the last three seasons. Consider Rowand nothing more than an
NL-option even after receiving half of his at-bats in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.
RIGHTFIELD: Shane Victorino lacks
the MLB sample size to boldly judge his potential, but outside of his speed
he's an average big leaguer at best. Expect a .770 OPS with 10-15 HR, and a 0.5
BB/K ratio. Serviceable numbers as a reserve in NL-only formats.
