STARTING PITCHING
Projected Rotation
- Freddy Garcia, RH
- Cole Hamels, LH
- Brett Myers, RH
- Jamie Moyer, LH
- Adam Eaton, RH
Add Adam Eaton and Freddie Garcia to the
mix of Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Jon Lieber, and phenom Cole Hamels,
while losing no real impact players and you have a formula for success. The
addition of Helms has for the most part been overlooked from a fantasy
perspective. Only one time has Helms recorded over 500 PA during his career.
With the opportunity to play a full season and receive 550 plus at-bats, he's
sure to be an improvement over last year's tandem of David Bell and Abraham
Nunez.
The one thing that really
jumps out about this team (other than the swagger they've displayed during
recent interviews) is the depth of the starting rotation. Barring an unforeseen
injury, the six capable arms will be responsible for the bulk of the starts
this season. Though the bullpen has some noticeable holes, the rotation should
be good enough to keep the pen fresh throughout the year, alleviating undo
stress to Tom Gordon and Ryan Madson.
2007 TEAM PERCPECTIVE
On paper, this team looks intimidating.Where most teams can't muster up four quality
starters, the Phillies have six in the rotation in addition to a lineup that
led the league in runs scored last year.They've got a swagger for a team that hasn't had a playoff berth since
1993 and again have to be considered a challenger for the division title.
There are question marks surrounding this team.How will Helms fare when he's given a
full-time job for the first time in his career?How will Victorino play over the course of a full season?Barring an injury to one or two of their
vital parts they won't finish 12 games out of first place in 2007.
BULLPEN
Closer: Tom Gordon, RH
Set-Up 1: Ryan Madson, RH
Set-Up 2: Geoff Geary, RH
Though Tom Gordon's
HR/9 rate went through the roof last year, he still did an adequate job of
closing out ballgames, but he'll be 39 this year and the question remains, how
much more can the team count on his services?His BB rate has increased each of the last three seasons, as has his HR
rate (with his HR/F ratio skyrocketed up to 18.2% last season).It remains to be seen whether or not Ryan Madson will have to step into the
role once again.
SLEEPER
I like Wes Helms
to produce big numbers this year.His
XBH rates have continually been high, and this full-time opportunity has been
long overdue.He'll be just fine, and I
fully expect him to put together a season around 20 HR with an .800 OPS, though
his average certainly won't be around .330, a .285 average isn't out of the
realm of possibility.
BUST
I'd expect Tom Gordon
to fall apart this year given the steady decline of his rate statistics over
the last few seasons.He's also 39 years
old, and Gordon doesn't have the kind of stuff to keep him in the game and be
effective for too long, ala Mariano
Rivera.
TOP PROSPECT
Carlos Carrasco was great in Double-A last season,
striking out nearly a batter per inning, and allowing just 6 HR in 159 1/3
IP.He's young for Double-A at 20, but
he has time to grow, and with a surplus in starting pitching, the Phillies won't
rush him to the big leagues as they did Cole Hamels.Keep an eye on Carrasco, but thus far, he is
a potential future ace.
FIRST OFF THE BENCH
Jayson Werth will be the first off the bench if Victorino
struggles.Werth is a good hitter, and he'll
turn just 28 years old in May.Though
he's been hurt often, and lacks plate discipline, he can hit for power. This
team lacks power from right side of the plate which should offer Werth a
plethora of at bats filling in for either Burrell or Victorino as the season progresses.
