Can Brandon Lyon hold the closer's role for an entire season?

Catchers – Chris Snyder, Miguel Montero, Robby Hammock

Appearing in 110 games last season for the Diamondbacks, Chris Snyder his .252 with 13 home runs, 47 RBI, and 37 runs scored. The home runs were not a fluke, as he showed in the minors and in college that he could be a double-digit homer threat if given the opportunity. Snyder has nice sleeper potential, as he is far from well-known, but there is potential for him to be one of the better offensive catchers in the league. Look for him late and cheap, but he could be a nice bargain. Miguel Montero and Robby Hammock will be non-factors on fantasy rosters as both them will struggle to find playing time on the Diamondbacks’ roster.

First Base – Conor Jackson, Chad Tracy

With two full seasons in the majors, it is becoming pretty clear at this point what Conor Jackson is and what he is not. What he is not is a power hitter, as he has hit just 32 home runs in 985 career major league at-bats, along with 31 more in 1,074 minor league at-bats. He will hit for a respectable average – in the .280 - .290 range – with 60-70 RBI. In NL-only leagues, one could do worse, but that simply is not worthy of consideration in mixed leagues.

Chad Tracy is still taking blood thinners for a blood clot and cannot play until he is off the medication. If Tracy is ready for Opening Day, he could start either one of the corners or in the outfield. Tracy should be avoided except in the deepest of NL-only leagues.

Second Base – Orlando Hudson, Chris Burke, Augie Ojeda

With four straight seasons of similar numbers, predicting what Orlando Hudson will do has become easy enough – a batting average between .270 - .290, low-teens for home runs, low-60s RBI, and around 70 runs. The runs could rise this year with the improving lineup, but there should be no reason to expect anything different in the other numbers since he has been so consistent with them. The only concern here would be in Hudson’s ability, or lack thereof, to play everyday, as he has only once in the last four years appeared in more than 139 games, and only twice since his debut in 2002 has he appeared in 142 or more games.

Shortstop –Stephen Drew, Chris Burke, Augie Ojeda

While Stephen Drew was less-than-average in 2007, his potential and tools make him too great a fantasy prospect for you to be sleeping on him in this year’s drafts and auctions. Breakout potential is definitely there for Drew this season, with a .290 batting average and 20 home runs and 90 RBI a possibility. While he will never be a major stolen base threat, he did steal nine last year, and anywhere from a half dozen to a dozen stolen bases would be about right for 2008.

Neither Chris Burke nor Augie Ojeda is likely to offer anything of fantasy value this season. As such, both should be left alone in the fantasy drafts and picked up only as a reserve via free agency.

Third Base – Mark Reynolds, Chad Tracy

Mark Reynolds is a solid option at third base later in the draft. After hitting six homers in the minors last year and 17 in the majors, Reynolds should not have a problem reaching mid-20s for homers in 2008, and 30 would not be out of the question. Cutting down on the strikeouts would be a help, and doing so could see his average rise to around .290 - .300, and 90 to 100 RBI should not be a problem in this lineup for the developing Reynolds.

The only question here is when Tracy is finally healthy, how much time, if any, is he taking from Reynolds, or if he will instead be taking playing time from Conor Jackson at first.

Outfield – Eric Byrnes, Chris Young, Justin Upton, Jeff Salazar

Eric Byrnes had a career year last season, hitting .286 with 21 home runs, 83 RBI, 103 runs scored, and Byrnes stole 50 bases. Even if Byrnes’ power numbers somewhat, he will still bring value for his fantasy owners with his base stealing and his having more pop in his bat than your traditional speedster.

Chris Young has 30/30 potential and, with a little progress, he could see his average rise into the .260 - .270 range, as well as 100 runs scored. Strikeouts are an issue, but if he can cut them on them, he could turn into an elite outfielder.

Justin Upton has huge upside and tremendous potential as a fielder and as a hitter. Upton will struggle at times this year as he continues to develop, but he will steal bases and he has the power to hit 20 home runs. Upton has extremely high value in keeper leagues and the potential is there for him to eventually be one of the top outfielders in NL-only leagues. For now, though, look for him to struggle, making him a poor pick in one-and-done leagues.

Jeff Salazar will pick up some at-bats as a fourth outfielder, but his two home runs in 147 career at-bats, not to mention only 18 RBI, should give you some indication as to how valuable he is in fantasy baseball, which is not at all.

Starting Rotation – Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson, Doug Davis, Micah Owings, Edgar Gonzales

Brandon Webb is a sinkerball pitcher that will eat up innings with a low ERA and has the ability to rack up strikeouts. Last season, the Cy Young runner-up was 18-10 with a 3.01 ERA and 194 strikeouts. With back-to-back seasons of a low-3 ERA and four seasons with at least 172 strikeouts – with no seasons where he has struck out fewer than 164 – it is easy to predict what Webb is likely to do in 2008. He will be expensive in auctions this year, but he will deliver.

On any other team in the National League, Dan Haren might be the ace of the staff. Not here, though, and his matching up against most team’s No. 2 starter instead of No. 1 will only help him. Pitching for a sub-.500 Athletics club, Haren still managed to go 15-9, and his 3.07 ERA was third best in the offensive-minded American League. Haren will continue to be a strikeout threat in the National League, and his no longer facing a Designated Hitter will only help him lower his ERA.

Randy Johnson is old and near retirement, but he still has the ability to make batters miss and pick up wins. That is of course when he is healthy, and that is far from a safe bet. His injuries in the recent past make him a huge risk to draft and the potential for him missing multiple starts is there. Johnson will go in the later rounds, and he is unlikely to meet the expectations of those drafting him.

Doug Davis continues to pick up wins, and he won 13 last year with the Diamondbacks, but his horrific control numbers over the last two seasons make him a very risky pick. With a strikeout-to-walk ratio last season of 1.52, Davis was lucky to post an ERA as low as he did.

Micah Owings and Edgar Gonzales will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation this spring. While both have tremendous potential, the risk is too high to use a draft pick on either except in the deepest of leagues.

Bullpen – Tony Pena, Chad Qualls, Juan Cruz, Doug Slaten, Dustin Nippert, Brandon Lyon

While this has been a fluid situation all offseason, for right now at least, Brandon Lyon is penciled in as the closer for the upcoming season. As the Diamondbacks showed last season, when they win, they win close, making Lyon – or whoever ultimately ends up with the job – quite valuable. Lyon does have closing experience, both with the Diamondbacks in 2005 and with the Red Sox in 2003, but both stints were brief, and injuries have routinely gotten in the way of Lyon taking that next step.

Chad Qualls has potential to be a closer if Lyon goes down to injury, and he is coming off his biggest season to date in the majors, with a record of 6-5 with a 3.05 ERA, five saves, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 78:25. At this point, however, he is only Lyon insurance, and is not worth owning except in deeper NL-only leagues.

Tony Pena had been a candidate for the closer’s spot early on in the offseason, but he lacks the experience and numbers at this point to be trusted with the role. Pena could end up with the setup role, but his numbers are not enough to get excited over without the saves.

Projected Lineup

Chris Young, Center Field
Orlando Hudson, Second Base
Eric Byrnes, Left Field
Mark Reynolds, Third Base
Conor Jackson, First Base
Stephen Drew, Shortstops
Justin Upton, Right Field
Chris Snyder, Catcher

Projected Rotation

Brandon Webb
Dan Haren
Randy Johnson
Doug Davis
Micah Owings

Closer

Brandon Lyon

Setup

Chad Qualls