From the batter's box until he gets back home, Carl Crawford never stops running.
|
As pitchers and catchers report and spring training gets under way, the fantasy world is starting to gear up for the season. In preparation of your upcoming draft, I will review those players, division by division, that burn up the base paths.
With that in mind, here are “The Dependable,” “The Surprises,” and “The Declining” base stealers in the coming 2008 season.
American League East
The National League is the league most consider the home of “small ball.” However, after reviewing three seasons of base stealing statistics, it appears that the American League East has their fair share of players who are burning up the base paths and making a commitment to manufacturing runs.
The Dependable
Carl Crawford – Averaging 50 stolen bases a season since 2003, Crawford has been fourth-best when looking at three-year averages in steals in the game, second-best in the American League. Is there any doubt that Carl Crawford is one of the best bets on draft day for steals?
Brian Roberts – Although littered with injuries and recent steroid implications, Brian Roberts has still averaged 38 steals per season over the past three years. With an 83 percent success rate, there is no doubt that you should consider Roberts at second base if you are looking to round out your 5 X 5 rotisserie team.
Julio Lugo – Whether Red Sox fans like him or hate him, the one thing you can count on Julio Lugo to produce is steals. Lugo swiped 33 bags in 2007 and will likely come close, netting around 30 bases by seasons end.
Bobby Abreu – Abreu may have lost his power numbers, hitting a mere 16 home runs since coming to the American League, but what Abreu has not lost is his step on the base paths. His statistics have gone done but that is due more to the potency of the Yankees’ lineup than it has to do with his speed. You can expect 23-25 stolen bases from Bobby in 2008.
B.J. Upton – In only his first full season, B.J. gave their fantasy owners a treat with 22 stolen bases. Knowing the speed the Upton possesses, 30 stolen bases is not out of the question, adding yet another speedy player on the base paths for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
The Surprise
Jacoby Ellsbury – To say that he is a surprise for 2008 is slightly overstated considering the hype about Jacoby that grew out of his limited season play and even more impressive playoff performance. The heir-apparent to the starting center field position, Ellsbury will take his blazing speed from the minor leagues and join the Red Sox on a full-time basis. In all likelihood, he will take more than at-bats away from Coco Crisp. A great sleeper pick in any league, Ellsbury should amass close to 25 steals in 2008.
Jason Bartlett – Acquired in the Delmon Young trade, Jason Bartlett adds another speedy player to the Tampa Bay roster. Bartlett quietly stole 23 bases in 2007 but his low batting average and poor fielding percentage cut down his opportunities and eventually led to his inclusion in the trade. Bartlett should get the opportunity to match at least his 2007 total in stolen bases.
Nick Markakis – This young, up-and-coming star had a slow start to the 2007 season statistically. When all was said and done, Markakis stole 18 bases. There is no reason not to expect his statistics to continue to grow, including his stolen bases. Markakis has the opportunity to steal at least 20 bases and with the limited potential of the Baltimore offense, the team will rely on his speed to try to generate runs.
The Decline
Coco Crisp – If it is not obvious to Crisp today, come mid-season it should be self-evident that the Red Sox are no longer looking to Crisp as the center fielder in Boston. If not by the start of the season, definitely by mid-season, the team will have completely invested in Ellsbury as their starting center fielder, either trading Crisp for prospects or relegating him an injury backup as well as a designated runner. If traded, his stock would rise but as it stands today, it appears that his opportunities are going to diminish as the season progresses.
Johnny Damon – Yet another center fielder who at one time was the starting center fielder for the Red Sox, Damon now finds himself projected over Hideki Matsui as the Yankees’ left fielder. Over the past three years, Damon has seen his steal totals decrease and this trend is likely to continue as injuries are starting to plague him.
Derek Jeter – Once known to produce 20+ steals, it is apparent that those days are behind him. In 2007, Jeter stole only 17 bases. Expect his statistics to decrease to 15 stolen bases or less. When you have Bobby Abreu and Alex Rodriguez hitting behind you, there is less of a need to get into scoring position because as long as you are on base with these two players at bat, you are in scoring position.
Rocco Baldelli – It is not that Baldelli is not one of the fastest players in baseball or on a team that is quickly becoming known as one of the fastest teams in the American League; it is simply because he has not played in a full season since his arrival. Baldelli is a player that, when healthy, has potential fantasy impact making him a great injury-risk sleeper in larger leagues.
Top 10 Projected American League East Base Stealers
1. Carl Crawford, Center Field, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Brian Roberts, Second Base, Baltimore Orioles
3. B.J. Upton, Second Base / Outfield, Tampa Bay Rays
4. Julio Lugo, Shortstop, Boston Red Sox
5. Jacoby Ellsbury, Center Field, Boston Red Sox
6. Bobby Abreu, Right Field, New York Yankees
7. Johnny Damon, Left Field, New York Yankees
8. Alex Rodriguez, Third Base, New York Yankees
9. Alex Rios, Right Field, Toronto Blue Jays
10. Nick Markakis, Right Field, Baltimore Orioles
