Sophomore slump or sophomore success for Hunter Pence in 2008?

Catchers – J.R. Towles, Brad Ausmus

Though he had just 40 at-bats last season in Houston after his call-up, Towles will receive every chance to earn the starting job behind the plate. He is a boom or bust candidate, but he has proven that he can be a solid hitter. I would not expect anything more than 12 home runs and 50 runs batted in to go with a .275 batting average, solid numbers for a guy who brings very little experience. You can probably sneak him onto your team in the last couple of rounds. Brad Ausmus will be a backup for the rest of his career. He is not a fantasy option.

First Base – Lance Berkman, Darin Erstad, Mark Loretta, Ty Wigginton

Berkman's days in the outfield are over, and he is now firmly entrenched at first base. While the home runs have been up and down for Berkman, at least 30 home runs and 100 RBI appear to be a reasonable expectation, with a batting average in the .280-.290 range.

Erstad and Loretta are veteran fill-ins with little value even if they start.

Middle Infield – Kazuo Matsui, Miguel Tejada, Geoff Blum, Mark Loretta, Ty Wigginton

Matsui will play second base, and Tejada will start at shortstop. Both are newcomers to the Astros, and the Astros are counting on both heavily in the lineup. Matsui gives the team a solid No. 2 hitter that they desperately needed. Though he does not impress you with the power numbers, he does have the ability to hit for average, score a significant number of runs, and make a difference for your team on the basepaths.

Tejada will likely bat either third or fifth in the lineup, so there will be plenty of opportunity for him to be a four-category player. He will not be as much of a power threat as he was in the past, as three straight seasons of declining home run totals has him looking at more like 20-home runs than the 30+ he once routinely posted. His RBI should make a little bit of an uptick in a better lineup with the Astros.

Blum hits from both sides of the plate and can play multiple positions, so there is a possibility that he could have some value at some point, but do not count on anything from him.

Third Base – Ty Wigginton, Geoff Blum, Mark Loretta

Wigginton can also play a few different infield positions, but he is the starter at third base this season. When given the opportunity to play, he has shown he can hit for power, with 20+ home runs each of the last two seasons, and that should be a reasonable goal for 2008 as well. His average will never be anything special, and look for around 60-80 RBI.

Outfielders – Carlos Lee, Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence, Darin Erstad, Yordany Ramirez, Reggie Abercrombie

One has to love Carlos Lee’s numbers – 31 or more home runs every season since 2003, at least 113 RBI in all but one of those seasons, and he even steals bases, just to show he can. Lee only looks better in those leagues where on base percentage, slugging, or OPS are used.

Bourn is the new center fielder for the Astros this season after coming over in the Lidge trade, and he can fly. He is strictly a two-category player who could score at least 90 runs and swipe 50 bases. A fair comparison: Juan Pierre, circa 2005.

The only thing that stopped Hunter Pence from hitting last season was injury. If he stays healthy and avoids the somewhat mythical “sophomore slump,” one can look for even better numbers than last season, with numbers in all categories to assist fantasy owners.

Erstad, Ramirez, and Abercrombie have very little value, and I do not see anything that is going to chance that assumption.

Starting Rotation – Roy Oswalt, Brandon Backe, Woody Williams, Wandy Rodriguez, Chris Sampson, Felipe Paulino

It appears the first five on this list will comprise the 2008 Astros starting rotation. The only way Paulino will make the staff is if Backe cannot make a full recovery from Tommy John ligament replacement surgery.

Only Oswalt seems like a lock for double-digit wins, and he should see a rise in his strikeouts from the 154 he picked up in 2007, his fewest in a season with at least 32 starts. With only one season in his career with an ERA above last year’s 3.18, and a career ERA of 3.07, it is a safe bet to predict more of the same there.

The team will lean on Oswalt, hoping the other four can hold things together until the sixth inning each game. Only Oswalt is worth owning outside National League-only formats.

Bullpen – Jose Valverde, Doug Brocail, Geoff Geary, Mark McLemore, Oscar Villarreal, Dave Borkowski, Wesley Wright, Ryan Houston, Mike DeJean, Brian Moehler

Valverde took a step forward into the top closer status when he led the majors with 47 saves last season with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Though it is not likely that he will reach that number again, it should be assumed that he will reach at least 35 with a solid earned run average of around 3.00 and a WHIP of about 1.25 or so.

The rest of the pen is less that stellar, with Brocail likely leading the group in holds. The rest of the roles will be defined as we move through Spring Training, so they are not to be considered fantasy options at this point.

Projected Lineup
Michael Bourn, Center Field
Kazuo Matsui, Second Base
Carlos Lee, Left Field
Lance Berkman, First Base
Miguel Tejada, Shortstop
Hunter Pence, Right Field
Ty Wigginton, Third Base
J.R. Towles, Catcher

Projected Rotation
Roy Oswalt
Woody Williams
Wandy Rodriguez
Brandon Backe
Chris Sampson

Closer
Jose Valverde

Next in Line
Doug Brocail/Mark McLemore