If Homer Bailey makes the 25 man roster, can he thrive and survive under Dusty Baker?

Last week in the Farm Report, we looked at the top five position battles in Spring Training involving prospects. This week, we will do the same for the pitchers, as we look at the top five, in no particular order, battles for rotation spots involving pitchers.

1. The Red Sox’ Rotation

Will Clay Buchholz win the No. 5 spot in the rotation? The Red Sox have said that they are looking to hold down Buchholz’ innings this year, but will they do so if it means that Julián Tavárez is their No. 5 starter for a prolonged period of time? If Curt Schilling was healthy, then sending Buchholz to the minors would be a no-brainer, but it becomes far murkier for the Sox now. Buchholz’ outing over the weekend did not help him, however. Buchholz has yet to pitch 150 innings in a season, and there is reason to believe that the Sox will want to hold him to no more than that this year. That is not likely feasible if the Sox keep him on the roster for the entire season. As such, the betting here is that Buchholz opens the year with the Pawtucket Red Sox, Tavárez opens as the No. 5 starter, and Buchholz does not return until mid-season, barring abject failure by Tavárez and continued health issues for Schilling.

2. The Yankees’ Rotation

The final spot is likely to go to Ian Kennedy, a top prospect, but Joba Chamberlain, who is one of the top prospects in the game, will pass him at some point. Will that be right out of camp? Alternatively, will the Yankees place Chamberlain back in the pen for now, with the plan being to ease him into the rotation as the Twins did with Johan Santana? We might get some answers out of Spring Training, but it will not be the final one. What is most likely is that, due to the weaknesses in the pen and the desire to keep Chamberlain’s innings low, Chamberlain opens the season as the setup man. He will move into the rotation midseason if the need arises due to injury, and make the occasional spot start in the meanwhile.

3. The Braves’ Rotation

Is Mike Hampton back? If not, will the Braves be willing to go with former Tiger stud Jair Jurrjens? Jurrjens was the prize of the deal that sent Edgar Renteria to the Tigers, and he was respectable in his short time in the majors, going 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA. However, his control numbers – 13 strikeouts, 11 walks in 30 2/3 innings – seems to indicate that he might not be ready, although his Double-A control numbers were brilliant. Even if he is not ready, though, do the Braves really have any other options if Hampton’s comeback stalls? Quality depth is not a strong point for the Braves anymore, so the answer here is likely no. Jurrjens could use time in Triple-A, but he is unlikely to receive it. As such, expect almost as many poor starts as quality starts.

4. The Rockies’ Rotation

The Rockies have two intriguing arms to watch – Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez – who were both instrumental in the Rockies’ 2007 World Series run. Of the two, Morales is the better arm, although stamina issues in his starts make it more likely that he will return to Triple-A. Jimenez, though, is likely to stick after going 4-4 with a 4.28 ERA in 15 starts, with 68 strikeouts and 37 walks in 82 innings. While he is not ready yet, and the Rockies have him already ticketed for Triple-A, a third arm to watch here is Greg Reynolds. A solid Spring Training could have Reynolds on the fast track to the big leagues, and an appearance there this year; otherwise, he will not be up before September.

5. The Reds’ Rotation

The best thing going for Homer Bailey is the urgent, desperate need for pitching in Cincinnati. That also happens to be the worst thing going for Homer Bailey. Bailey is an extremely talented young pitcher, likely one of the top five, but his struggles last year leave serious doubt as to his readiness. His stay in the majors was prolonged due to the ineffectiveness of the pitchers already on the major league roster, not due to anything he was doing. What would be best for Bailey would be part of this season, if not this entire season, spent in Triple-A so that he can work on his control and stamina. If that happens, Edinson Volquez, whom the Reds acquired from the Rangers in the Josh Hamilton trade, would be the No. 5 starter. While no longer a prospect per se due to the number of innings he has, Volquez is still just 24 – he will not be 25 until July – and he has significant upside potential, and is a great sleeper candidate as a result. If the Reds were smart, this would be the plan, but no one has ever won money betting on the intelligence of Dusty Baker.