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American League Positional Grumblings
American League Positional Grumblings
By Ray Flowers | Published  03/19/2007 | AL Positional Grumblings - (2007)
Ray Flowers
SG Senior Writer Ray Flowers'  work on baseball has been featured the past two years at SportsIllustrated with his weekly fantasy mailbag column (Ray also writes a weekly column for SI on hockey). The originator of SWIP and ABA (Average Bases Allowed), Ray often proposes counterintuitive ideas that are formed from in-depth statistical analysis that have helped lead to, amongst other things, a championship in the CBS Sportsline Experts Mixed League and a second place finish in the FSTA AL Only Experts League in 2006.
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View all articles by Ray Flowers
Starting gigs are won and lost in Spring Training

 
Clockwise from top left: B.J. Upton, Esteban German, Juan Uribe, Mark Grudzielanek, John Buck, Jason LaRue, Alex Cintron, and Casey Blake. All fighting for playing time. 

As we enter the final weeks of spring training the fantasy draft season starts to heat up. Who will win that final roster spot? Will it be the rookie, the old man, or someone unexpected? In this article I will review some of the spring training battles in the American League. Some of the positions I will be discussing might already be "settled" as far as the team goes, but even if that is the case, there is still a good chance that those positions under discussion could see some serious shifting at some point especially if the chosen starter were to struggle in April.

***Spring Training stats as of March 18th, 2007.

FIRST BASE: INDIANS

Casey Blake (.282-19-68-63-0 in 401 ABs)

Ryan Garko (.292-7-45-28-0 in 185 ABs)

Travis Hafner (.308-42-117-100-0 in 454 ABs)

Travis Hafner would make this question irrelevant if his troublesome elbow didn't flair up more often than a case of VD on a prostitute. However, Hafner has been limited to just 5 games at 1B the past two seasons, and even though he is making his yearly claim to play more in the field, we reserve the right to question his ability to stray from the designated hitter role. Casey Blake will get first shot at the starters spot for the Indians a year after playing 93 of his 109 games in RF. Blake, who has hit at least 17 HRs in four straight seasons, will likely also continue to see time in the OF as a platoon mate of Trot Nixon. If Blake hits 5th in the lineup as rumored, he would be in a great RBI spot. Garko came up last year and hit harder than a Roy Jones right hook posting 45 RBIs in just 50 games. However, he is poor with the glove, and as a result he might be sent back to AAA to start the year. If he stays with the club he could platoon with Blake at 1B allowing Blake to shift to the OF when Nixon needs to be removed (against lefties). Bottom line here is that there are way too many platoons being discussed with all the players, so the only sure bet in the group is Hafner, though Blake should also be a useful endgame pickup. Don't forget that Victor Martinez also saw some time at 1B last year to save his body from the rigors of catching, so there will likely be at least 20 games this year when the "regular" 1B will be on the bench.

SECOND BASE: ROYALS

Esteban German (.326-3-34-44-7 in 279 ABs)

Mark Grudzielanek (.297-7-52-85-3 in 548 ABs)

This one is kind of cheating since Grudzielanek is out of action after undergoing knee surgery, though reports have him possibly being ready some time during the first week of the season. If Grudz does make the Opening Day roster he will certainly be the starter if physically able with his stellar glove and a bat that has produced at least a .294 average in each of the past four seasons. However, German will start in his place if he can't go, and all German did last year was be a superb AL Only pickup who also qualifies at 3B (24 games) and OF (25 games) this year. Guzman should see at least as many ABs as he received last year, and with some untapped speed, he is a legitimate contender for 15-20 SBs with enough playing time. German is also hitting .383 this spring if you needed any more proof that he will be of value in AL Only leagues.

THIRD BASE: DEVIL RAYS

Akinori Iwamura (.311-32-77-84-8 in 621 ABs in Japan)

BJ Upton (.246-1-410-20-11 in 175 ABs)

Ty Wigginton (.2757-24-79-55-4 in 444 ABs)

While this spot appears to be squarely in Iwamura's hands, his pre-season struggles are concerning for the D-Rays (he is just 4 for 30 or a .133 average). However, the team paid him over $7 million dollars for three years, and he did hit at least 30 HRs in each of his last three years in Japan, so he should be OK. Upton, the second overall pick in 2002, has been unable to find a position because of stone-like hands. Originally a SS, and now basically a 3B, Upton might fill the "super-utility" role with the D-Rays this year so he technically probably isn't in the running for the starting 3B gig though he could take over the position at some point of the season if Iwamura continues to struggle. Upton has also had a slow spring hitting .216 (37 ABs), but with his power potential and blazing speed (15 SBs in 95 ML games), he is an intriguing late round gamble. Wigginton will start the season at 1B and is really nothing more than an interchangeable part who could also play 2B if Jorge Cantu fails to rebound from a down 2006 (.249-14-62 in 413 ABs). Wigginton has played 365 of his 527 career games at the hot corner.

SHORTSTOP: WHITE SOX

Juan Uribe (.235-21-71-53-1 in 463 ABs)

Alex Cintron (.285-5-41-35-10 in 288 ABs)

This really isn't much of a battle if Uribe is healthy and not locked up in some foreign prison for trying to shoot a gardener (wasn't that the story?). That case still hangs in the air, and though it likely won't keep him off the field it is possible that it might. Add to that the fact the Uribe was out of shape last season and saw his average fall to a career-low .235, and there are reasons for concern. Uribe has knocked in at least 71 runs in each of the past three years while hitting an average of 20 HRs a year, so if you can live with the low average he is a great source of power from SS. Cintron did have offseason elbow surgery, and has struggled with a calf injury this spring, so he certainly isn't putting the heat on Uribe. However, the Sox seem ready to give him more PT if Uribe stumbles, and the chances of that happening have to be at least 50/50 at this point.

CATCHER: ROYALS

John Buck (.245-11-50-37-0 in 371 ABs)

Jason LaRue (.194-8-21-22-1 in 191 ABs)

According to a report in the Kansas City Star on Monday, here is what manager Buddy Bell said about the battle. "I like both of them and they're both playing well. I had hoped to pick a clear cut No.1 guy, but it's going to be hard to do that." So why do I bother listing them here if their manager says he has no idea who will start? It's all about value. Though each man figures to lose time to the other, this situation will likely drive down each catchers value on draft day. Buck, who has hit at least 11 HRs in each of the past three years, will be the more sought after of the two because of LaRue's poor 2006 campaign. Buck did have 50 RBIs last year, a solid total for an endgame grab, and his has the potential to knock 18-20 longballs with playing time. Don't forget about LaRue either, as he will be out to prove that last years performance was a fluke. LaRue had a streak of four years of at least 12 HRs and 50 RBIS the previous four years even though he never accumulated even 400 ABs in a season while a member of the Reds. In an ideal world you would grab either of them to be your #2 catcher or you might even combine them if you are in an AL Only league.





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